New polls for the 2024 presidential election have one thing in common. In a hypothetical showdown in November, Republican front-runner Donald Trump is leading incumbent Joe Biden.
Four separate polls released over the weekend by The New York Times/Siena College, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and CBS News/YouGov show Trump’s lead among registered voters ranging from 2 to 5 points. It was a range.
of fox news and wall street journal Both polls showed Trump with a two-point lead over Biden, 49-47 and 47-45, respectively. This put him within a 2.5% margin of error.
inside CBS News/YouGov pollTrump led by four points, 52-48, outside the poll’s 2.8 percentage point margin of error.
of Times/Siena Investigation Trump had a 5-point lead, 48-43, which also exceeded the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Taken together, it can be seen that although the election race is extremely close, Mr. Trump’s advantage is solidified.
In addition to a hypothetical opponent’s lead, the findings also suggest a deeper shift in voters’ perceptions of the two men who have campaigned on and off for the past five years, with Biden This suggests that he may be losing the likability advantage he has held for many years. Beyond Trump.
In all four polls, Trump’s favorability ratings were higher than Biden’s, but some were within the poll’s margin of error.
This was unprecedented in the 2020 campaign, where Biden ran as a candidate promising to unite a country deeply divided by four years of the Trump administration.
In an October 2020 Times/Siena poll, 52% of respondents viewed Biden favorably, while only 43% viewed then-President Trump favorably.
But last month, the tables turned. Only 38% of Times/Siena respondents viewed Biden favorably, while 44% viewed Trump favorably. Similar sentiments were echoed in surveys by Fox News and the Wall Street Journal.
Polls represent a snapshot in time and do not necessarily predict future results. The Biden and Trump campaigns did not immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment on the apparent change in favorability ratings.
economy
Even as voters express more optimism about the economy, Biden’s popularity remains lagging, an issue that has weighed on the president’s re-election campaign so far.
A Wall Street Journal poll found that Biden received the highest ratings of any campaign so far for his handling of the economy, with 40% of voters approving of his handling of the economy. This is an increase of 4 points from the same question in December.
nevertheless, CBS News/YouGov Polls show voters remember Trump’s economy through rose-colored glasses.
When asked whether they thought the U.S. economy was good or bad under the Trump administration, 65% of those surveyed answered “good.” When asked about the current economic situation, only 38% answered “good.”
Voters were asked a question to gauge their perceptions of inflation, asking whether they believed prices would rise or fall under different policies from Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden. Fifty-five percent said Biden’s policies would cause prices to rise, but only 34% said the same would happen under Trump’s policies.
President Trump has said that if elected, he is considering imposing tariffs of more than 60% on Chinese goods and a flat 10% tariff on imports from the United States. Economists and analysts say the big tariff hikes are likely to raise the prices of many consumer goods.
Mr. Biden has fought hard to convince voters that the post-coronavirus economic recovery is the result of his economic policies, which aides call Bidennomics. But voters still feel budget pressure from inflation, and while they may be more optimistic about the economic trajectory, they are still unable to give Mr. Biden an objective view of the strong economy.
The Fox News poll surveyed 1,262 registered voters from February 25th to 28th and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The Wall Street Journal poll sampled 1,745 registered voters from February 21 to 28 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
The CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted among 2,159 Americans from February 28 to March 1 and had a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points. The New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted from February 25th to 28th among 980 registered voters and had a margin of error of +/-3.5 percentage points.
