Since satellites do not have the ability to directly measure wind speed, we use instruments such as satellites to make estimates based on other observable variables. scatterometer. Yes, that’s a real word. These indirect estimates indicate that Oscar had sustained winds of 48 mph to 63 mph (77 kph to 101 kph), which remains below hurricane thresholds (74 mph to 119 kph). km).
Air Force planes did find sustained winds of 85 mph (137 kph) in a small area. Hence Hurricane Oscar.
How did this happen?
The Oscar development shocked forecasters. As of Friday, there were only faint signs from satellite images that something might form. And none of the major global models showed any development. As the low pressure system approached Cuba this weekend, it was expected to be engulfed by vertical wind shear.
But Oscar’s smallness confounded those expectations. Weather models struggle with the development of small hurricanes, primarily because the microphysics of the smallest storms occur below the resolution of these models. In addition, small hurricanes are organized more quickly and efficiently.
In other words, smaller storms are more likely to cause rapid change. That’s what happened to Oscar. The storm is expected to bring heavy rain and winds to the eastern half of Cuba on Sunday, then move northeast, bringing rain and some storm surge to the Bahamian Islands early next week.