Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucks game with six quick-hit topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, what could lead to a win or loss for Tampa Bay, and some key matchups to watch each week.
After a week of rest, the 3-1 Bucks are ready to take on the big challenge against the 4-1 Detroit Lions for a Creamsicle retrospective game. Jared Goff threw three touchdowns and scored another as the Lions defeated the Carolina Panthers 42-24 on Sunday.
What’s at stake for the Bucks?
The Bucks had an impressive 26-9 win over the Saints in New Orleans before their bye week. Tampa Bay’s 26 points were the highest ever for Dave Canales’ offense, while Todd Bowles’ defense held New Orleans out of the end zone with its fewest points of the season. After getting swarmed by the Eagles on Monday Night Football, the Bucs started a running game against the Saints, rushing for 114 yards.
Bucks RB Rathard White – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Tampa Bay’s ground game has been inconsistent this year and will face a stiff challenge from Detroit. They had the league’s third-best rushing defense, allowing just 68.4 yards per game. The Lions boast a big, very physical defense led by second-year defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. They do a great job of making gang tackles and chasing quarterbacks in run defense. All three starting linebackers have sacks and can blitz at any time. This will be an opportunity for Tampa Bay’s offense to redeem itself after struggling at home against an equally good Philadelphia defense three weeks ago.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is playing great football with nine touchdown passes and only three interceptions. He is currently Pro Football Focus’ top-rated QB and one of the league’s best QBs in terms of play-action fakes. The Lions want to run the ball with David Montgomery and establish balance in their offense. That’s where Goff shines as a passer. Tampa Bay’s defense did a good job of pressuring, getting sacks and getting the ball away. That should continue after the bye week, as the Bucks are 3-0 in turnover battles this year.
What’s at stake for the Lions?
Detroit is off to a 4-1 start and is one of the hottest teams in the league this year. The Lions are in first place in the NFC North, with their only loss coming in overtime against Seattle. Detroit started the season with a 21-20 upset over Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champions in Kansas City. The Lions have won three straight since losing to Seattle, and a 42-24 victory over the winless Panthers gave them an extra boost of confidence heading into Sunday’s game against the Bucks.
Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Lions showed with wins over the Chiefs and Packers that they can defeat the best teams on the road. Head coach Dan Campbell has his team believing in themselves, and coordinators Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn have the offense and defense humming right now. This Bucks vs. Lions game will be a good early season indicator for both teams.
The Lions just missed the playoffs last year with a record of 9-8, but appear to be aiming to reach the postseason for the first time since 2016. Detroit is looking for its first playoff win since 1991. A win over the Bucks would give the Lions another win over an NFC team, which would give them a big step toward making the playoffs, and perhaps another team competing for a playoff spot or a playoff spot. There will probably be some fighting.
If the Bucks win…
Tampa Bay used the bye week to stay healthy, as head coach Todd Bowles gave his team a full week of rest. The Bucks should be at or near full strength, which means the return of rookies Kaliyah Kansi and Sarvosia Dennis, as well as veteran stars Mike Evans and Jamel Dean. The Lions are tough on both sides of the ball, so the Bucks will need to bring an “A” game in all three phases on Sunday to win. Tampa Bay is perfect when winning the turnover battle and currently has a plus-7 turnover margin. This situation needs to continue for the Bucks to improve to 4-1.
Bucs LT Tristan Wirfs – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Offensively, it’s a game that checks the offensive team’s mettle. Three weeks ago, Philadelphia dominated in the trenches and stifled Tampa Bay’s ground game. The Bucs’ offensive line needs to prove it can gain yards on the ground, even against a stingy run defense like the Lions, who boast the third-best unit in the league. Quarterback Baker Mayfield had a three-touchdown performance in New Orleans and may need to replicate that against a Lions offense that averages a lot more offense. His 29.6 points per game ranks fourth in the league.
Tampa Bay’s red zone defense is the second best in the league, allowing touchdowns just 27.3% of the time. Conversely, Detroit’s red zone offense is tied for seventh in the league at 63.2%. Holding Detroit’s offense down to field goals or creating takeaways in the red zone will be paramount to Tampa Bay’s success on Sunday. And the Bucks need to average over 50% conversion in the red zone on offense. The team forced to kick the most field goals on Sunday loses.
If the Lions win…
Detroit is piling up touchdowns on offense, as evidenced by their six TDs in a 42-24 win over Carolina last week. The Lions, who average nearly 30 points per game, won’t mind heading into a shootout matchup with the Bucks, who have scored 20 or more points on offense in just one game this year since their loss to New Orleans two weeks ago. Detroit simply has more firepower and experience than Tampa Bay’s offense currently has. If the Lions can continue to get to the red zone and score touchdowns at a 63% clip, they will easily move to 5-1 on the year.
Lions QB Jared Goff – Photo courtesy of USA Today
The Bucs are going to win the turnover battle, and putting pressure on quarterback Baker Mayfield and forcing him to make mistakes will go a long way for Dan Campbell’s team. The Lions have a game-breaker in Aidan Hutchinson, but the Bucs have been so good in pass protection so far that other Detroit defenders will step up and blitz Mayfield with extra defenders. There will be a need. When Mayfield gets pressured, the Lions have to come back. That’s because he’s proven to be very slippery and difficult to get sacks on earlier this year.
Defensively, the Bucks struggled to stop the Eagles’ onslaught three weeks ago. Philadelphia defeated Tampa Bay by 201 yards on the ground and exhausted the Bucs defense, but there was little gas left in the tank to rush the passer. As a result, Jalen Hurts was fired only once. Detroit would love to emulate David Montgomery’s recipe for success with 100-yard games on the ground. That would really open up the play-action passing game and allow Jared Goff to flourish.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ offense
Bucks RT Luke Godeke vs. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson
Luke Goedeke was one of the biggest storylines in the Bucks’ 2023 season, which started 3-1. He looks like a completely different and better player since moving from left guard, where he struggled as a rookie, to right tackle, where he played at Central Michigan. Goedeke has allowed just one sack this season, and that came against Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter in Week 1. However, that sack actually belonged to Baker Mayfield running back Minnesota’s pass rusher.
Bucs RT Luke Goedeke – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Goedeke will likely face his toughest test of the season after shutting down longtime Bucks thorn in the side Cam Jordan in New Orleans before the bye week. Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit’s first-round pick last year finished runner-up for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9.5 sacks and an incredible three interceptions. He’s off to a strong start this year with 4.5 sacks and one interception, hitting his mark last week against Carolina’s Bryce Young at the line of scrimmage.
Hutchinson is a 6-foot-7, 268-pound beast. He’s long, strong, and surprisingly agile for a player his size. Hutchinson had eight pressures and one sack in last week’s win over the Panthers and leads the league with 35 pressures. Goedeke has the strength to match Hutchinson, but does he have the motor? Hutchinson’s relentless energy has worn down his offensive tackles in the past. If Goedeke can somehow remove Hutchinson on Sunday, it will be his most impressive game to date. However, this is easier said than done.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ defense
Bucks Defense vs. Lions TE Sam LaPorta
There’s no question that the Bucks really need to shut out the Lions’ ground game, which features a hard-running running back from David Montgomery. And it makes sense to put pressure on Jared Goff, one of the hottest QBs in the league right now. So let’s focus on the individual matchup that could really decide the outcome of the game: Tampa Bay’s defense versus Detroit’s rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. The Lions’ second-round pick made an immediate impact in Detroit with 25 catches for 289 yards and three touchdowns.
Lions TE Sam LaPorta – Photo courtesy of USA Today
LaPorta had a four-catch, 47-yard performance against Carolina and caught two touchdowns. He is a fast and dynamic receiving tight end in the mold of Travis Kelce, George Kittle, and TJ Hockenson. LaPorta has had catches of 30 yards or more in each of his last three games, and has quickly developed into a reliable playmaker for Goff. He will be a problem for the Tampa Bay defense on Sunday.
The Bucs liked LaPorta out of Iowa State, but he was not included in the draft when Tampa Bay selected him, choosing offensive lineman Cody Mauch instead. In the past, the Bucs have struggled to contain tight ends, but they’ve done a great job against them this year. In Week 1, Hockenson was held to eight catches for 35 yards, and the following week Chicago’s Cole Kmet was held to just four catches for 38 yards. In Week 3, Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert had five catches for 45 yards, and then in New Orleans, Tampa Bay’s defense held Taysom Hill to one catch for seven yards and shut out Jimmy Graham.
