Could Cade Otton’s Injury Change The Bucs’ Run Game?

A lot of ink has been spilled on the internet about the Bucs’ run game this year. Everyone loves a zero-to-hero story, and Tampa Bay’s ground attack was exactly that story.

In 2023, they ranked 32nd in rushing yards per game and 27th in EPA/rush, but now they rank 5th and 8th, respectively. Now, there are many reasons why the team’s ball-running has improved this year.

Improvements due to returning offensive linemen.

check.

Are center and left guard players better?

check.

Draft a special back who is one of the best in the league at forcing missed tackles?

That also helps.

How to get more out of last year’s starting running back by changing the running scheme from zone to gap?

That was the biggest help!

But you can add to that long list that Cade Otton has developed into one of the best blocking tight ends in the NFL.

And now it looks like the Bucs There may not be Their best tight end in Dallas on Sunday. Otton is currently listed as a candidate to play due to a knee injury.

Cade Otton’s rise as a blocker

Bucks QB Baker Mayfield and TE Cade Otton – Photo courtesy of USA Today

Cade Otton has always been a very good blocker. I noticed it during the preseason of my rookie year.

Unfortunately for Otton, that glimpse never fully materialized in his first year. Last year was pretty much the same. Otto’s run blocking grade on Pro Football Focus went from a slightly below average 59.6 in his rookie year to a poor 51.7 in his sophomore campaign.

Interestingly, when analyzing the types of run plays, we see that Otton was better at blocking on gap runs than zone runs last year. Otton struggled to function laterally while maintaining base strength to maintain leverage and drives to keep the zone clean in Dave Canales’ midzone scheme.

That trend continued early this season. However, there was still a glimpse of the 2022 preseason.

But as the Bucs leaned into this new physical, gap run scheme, Otto suddenly turned into one of the best blocking tight ends in football. PFF ranks him tied for seventh among all qualifying tight ends with a block grade of 64.9.

He became a legitimate weapon as a puller/rapper in the Bucks’ deadly counter game. His targeting on the move is excellent, as offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has weaponized him as a split-flow blocker on zone runs and as a wham blocker in the influence gap for nose tackles.

In short, Otto’s progress this year has been evident in almost every aspect of his game, both obvious and not so obvious. And if he is absent on Sunday, it could have a big impact. how The Bucs run the ball.

Introducing TE2 for the Bucks – Payne Durham

Bucs head coach Todd Bowles and TE Payne Durham – Photo courtesy of USA Today

Payne-Durham has been getting more playing time lately. Before the team’s Week 11 bye, Durham was averaging 13.9 offensive snaps per game. Since the bye-bye week, that number has almost doubled to 27.5.

Offensive coordinator Liam Cohen recently joked that he’s concerned about Durham because the Bucs’ run game has improved, with the team becoming more of a two-tight end style offense.

When asked about Tampa Bay adding 12 personnel on Dec. 5, Cohen said: “Payne Durham thinks we’re 13 years old” [personnel] current team. All of a sudden, every time we take on a heavier assignment, he just nudges me and says, “Keep going.” We’re just trying to utilize our talent in different ways and get everyone that’s healthy and active and able to play for us.

“When you get into a bigger personnel group, sometimes you can make the defense a little more static in different ways. We’ve done that the last two weeks probably a little more than we have in the past.” [earlier] in season. [It is] Something else they have to prepare, it might be something we can hold on to. Even if it is executed with “12 people” people that we are accustomed to, it will probably be within “13 people”. [we are] We’re just trying to add to that menu. ”

There’s no question that as a blocker, Durham offers the Bucs the most diverse and impactful skill menu of any receiver. But he’s nowhere near Otton’s talent. Otto has become a targeted weapon in these emotional situations, and Coach Cohen is essentially saying, “I want you to pick up the momentum and blow up the end man on the line,” or “I want you to pick up the momentum and blow up that poor second-level soul.” I want you to wrap it up and explode.” ” He would be hard-pressed to expect the same from Durham.

Payne is much slower to cross formations than Otton, lacks Otton’s targeting skills, and often allows defenders to undercut him when he is supposed to clock him. He also lacks Otton’s athletic ability to maintain balance through contact and stay connected throughout his reps.

Bucks could change how they operate – and maintain recent success

This means there’s a good chance the Bucks will make some adjustments to how they run the football if Cade Otton is unavailable for Sunday night’s game against Dallas. Just to be clear, that doesn’t mean they have a lower success rate. But considering the strengths and weaknesses of Payne-Durham’s skillset as a blocker, if Cohen remains true to his “player over play” mantra, he might stick with the team’s successful gap system. However, they may adjust the type of gap plays they run.

To get the most out of Durham’s skill set, the Bucks will likely move him less as a split flow or wrapper and require more base blocks, strong side edges, or double teams. That probably means more duoblocks. It also means the team can still execute the counter tree that worked so well against the Chargers last week.

However, with Durham in the lead, there will likely be less pull leads and power to the weak side. Similarly, the Bucks may call fewer split flows in hopes of Durham coming forward and sealing the backside with a move or run-motion read. I don’t mean the run game. I don’t Be effective. It simply means that they are more likely to be effective. different method.

If ever there was a Bucks offensive coordinator who knew how to get the best out of his players, it was undoubtedly Liam Cohen. And Sunday is shaping up to be a new challenge: getting the most out of Durham while maintaining Tampa Bay’s successful run game.