Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds will cover six topics to preview upcoming Bucs games, what’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, how Tampa Bay will win or lose, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Buccaneers finished the 2023 season with a 9-8 record and were crowned NFC South champions for the third straight time before defeating the 11-6 Eagles in the wild-card playoffs. Tampa Bay lost to Detroit in the divisional round of the playoffs, but they’re looking to take the next step in 2024 and advance further in the postseason. The team will be looking to start 2024 on a high note with a win in the season opener at home against Washington.
What’s at stake for the Buccaneers?
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles and OLB Marquise Watts – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles has a 17-17 record in two seasons and just 1-2 in the postseason, but with most of last year’s team returning and the Bucs finishing 2023 with a 6-2 record, including the postseason, there are signs of an upswing both for the team and Bowles’ tenure in Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers will begin the season in September with three of their first four games at home in the Florida heat and humidity, including the season opener against the Washington Commanders. Tampa Bay will be looking to start the season strong with a win before embarking on a tougher environment in Detroit in Week 2, where they’ll face off in what should be a tough NFC matchup against the Lions, who beat the Buccaneers twice last year.
Teams that start the season 0-2 have historically struggled to make the playoffs, so if the Buccaneers have yet to find a way to beat the Lions, they’ll want to avoid starting the season 0-2 by beating the Commanders in the opener. The NFC South and NFC playoff standings could hinge on conference win tiebreakers, so getting an early lead in the NFC would work in Tampa Bay’s favor come January.
What is at stake for the commander?
Commanders head coach Dan Quinn – Photo courtesy of USA Today
There’s excitement in Washington following the franchise’s sale from Dan Snyder and the addition of proven head coach Dan Quinn. Things got even more exciting for the Commanders in April when the team drafted Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick. Expectations aren’t high as the team is rebuilding around a rookie quarterback and a first-year head coach, so some of the pressure coming into the season opener may be eased.
Still, Quinn and Daniels will be hoping to make a strong first impression in their burgundy, gold and white uniforms and usher in a new era for Washington with a season-opening win against the visiting Buccaneers. Quinn’s team will be tough, physical and defensive-minded.
New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has had success developing players like quarterback Kyler Murray, who was the No. 1 overall pick at Arizona in 2019. As the head coach at Texas Tech for six years and a senior offensive analyst at USC with this year’s No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, Kingsbury has an easy rapport with talented dual-threat quarterbacks coming out of college. He should be able to ease Daniels’ transition to the NFL and get him ready to play in Week 1.
If the Buccaneers want to win…
Buccaneers RB Rachad White – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles watched every game Jayden Daniels played in during the offseason against Louisiana State and Arizona State, as well as Daniels’ two games with Washington during the preseason. With plenty of time to prepare, and having played a few games against Kliff Kingsbury’s Cardinals in 2019 and 2022, Bowles and his defense should be prepared for just about anything barring a surprise or two in the season opener. Tampa Bay’s run defense could be a dominant force in 2024, and slowing down the backfield duo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler will be key to success.
As a scrambler, Daniels will have to use his arms instead of his legs to beat the Buccaneers out of the pocket, meaning Tampa Bay’s pass rush will need to be extremely disciplined and exploit gaps. Bowles will likely use a lot of zone defense and fake coverages to fool the rookie quarterback, as well as exotic pressure packages to exploit Daniels’ inexperience. If the Buccaneers can sack Daniels three or more times and force two turnovers, their chances of victory will only increase.
Offensively, Liam Cohen wants to revitalize the Buccaneers’ ground game, but it could be an uphill battle between the Commanders’ best defensive tackles. If Tampa Bay can get an early lead, it would take some of the pressure off Bowles’ defense and put more pressure on Washington’s rookie quarterback. If Baker Mayfield can play turnover-free — which he did in nine of the team’s 19 games last year — the Buccaneers could win their season opener.
The Commander wins…
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels and RB Brian Robinson Jr. – Photo courtesy of USA Today
If Jayden Daniels can’t get pressure running and throwing in the season opener, Washington could win and pull off a major upset. Daniels’ speed and agility give him the opportunity to gain 17 yards on scrambles that other quarterbacks might only gain 7. If he runs the ball and has success, whether it’s on a planned QB keeper or by getting out of the pocket, Daniels could put 21+ points on the scoreboard.
The heat will be even more intense for the Commanders, who will be wearing their dark uniforms as the game kicks off at 4:25 PM ET, the hottest time of the day. Washington will find the heat and humidity easier to bear if they can get an early lead and get some momentum going early on. Last year, the Buccaneers struggled to score in the first quarter, failing to score a single touchdown on their opening drive. If Dan Quinn’s team can outplay Tampa Bay in the first quarter and the first half, the visitors will be able to carry the momentum for all four quarters.
Defensively, Quinn’s team will have to deal with Mike Evans, the Buccaneers’ best weapon on offense. Baker Mayfield has already built rapport with Chris Godwin and Cade Otton, and is building rapport with rookie WR3 Jalen McMillan. However, with Evans in double coverage, Mayfield could get impatient and throw into the coverage, which could lead to turnovers. Washington’s defense will need to pressure Mayfield and convert his two turnovers to improve their chances of winning.
Key opponents for the Buccaneers’ offense
Buccaneers interior offensive line vs. Commanders defensive tackles
Commanders DT Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Attention is focused Tampa Bay rookie center Graham Barton In Week 1, Barton will make his NFL debut against a pair of Pro Bowl-caliber defensive tackles in Washington’s Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. But Barton won’t be alone. He’ll be flanked by new left guard Ben Bredeson and second-year right guard Cody Moach. Tampa Bay has worked hard throughout the offseason to shore up an interior offensive line that was a weak link last year with former starting center Robert Hainsey and the left guard duo of Matt Feiler and Aaron Stinney.
Not only will Barton, Bredeson and Mouch be solid in pass protection, but they will also need to lead the way in the run game, especially as rookie centers. Tampa Bay’s ground game has been last in the league the past two seasons, and new offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has placed an emphasis on running and a balanced attack this year. In addition to pressuring Baker Mayfield, Washington’s defensive tackles will need to do their part to slow the Buccaneers’ run game and limit yards between the tackles.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn might use some double-mag looks in the A-gap to confuse Barton and force him to make bad line calls, putting even more stress and pressure on the rookie center. And when Allen and Payne need a rest, St. Petersburg native Johnny Newton could be deployed as the third defensive tackle in the rotation, if he’s healthy enough to play.
A key matchup for the Buccaneers’ defense
Buccaneers pass rush vs. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
Buccaneers OLB Yaya Diaby and DT Kalijah Kansi – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay enters the 2024 season with a talented but inexperienced group of pass rushers at outside linebacker. It’s paramount for the Buccaneers to pressure rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels in the season opener, as that will only increase the team’s chances of winning. But pressure on a talented and accurate passer like Daniels may not be enough. The Buccaneers’ pass rushers need to get Daniels to the ground to end drives. That means bringing in two of Tampa Bay’s most reliable tacklers, free safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and linebacker Lavonte David, to blitz.
Maintaining gap integrity during the Buccaneers’ pass rush is paramount, as not doing so will open up escape routes for the mobile Daniels, who can gain yards and move the chains. The Buccaneers’ defensive tackles, edge rushers and blitzers will need to rush in sync as a unit to corral Daniels, contain him and keep him from hurting the Buccaneers with his legs.
Pressure and sacks are important, but forcing turnovers on the rookie quarterback is even more effective. Todd Bowles is known for his exotic pressure packages and crafty coverages. If Daniels can be forced into an interception or two, or the ball is sacked and lost by Bowles’ defense, the Buccaneers’ chances of winning will increase. The return of last year’s top footballer, Yaya Diaby, will be further help.
