Six weeks into the NFL season, and despite the high-scoring offense, whispers have begun regarding Mike Evans. Can you hear me? i will do it.
First of all, let me say that Mike Evans’ streak of 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons, now in its 10th year, is impressive, but just as it fascinates Bucs fans around the world, it’s not for me. is not that interesting. But since this is a topic at the forefront of the Bucks conversation, I thought I’d tackle the conversation head-on.
Evans currently has 25 catches on 42 targets for 310 yards and five touchdowns. Extrapolating this pace over a 17-game season, he would have 111 targets, 71 catches, 878 yards and 14 touchdowns.
That yard.
Oh, oh.
Everyone breathes.
Bucks WR Mike Evans – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
With Evans averaging just 51.7 yards per game, some fans are worried that offensive coordinator Liam Cohen is mismanaging the future Hall of Famer. This type of analysis usually leads to the conclusion, “That’s why the offense is faltering.”
But this year, it’s difficult to do that with an offense tied for No. 1 in scoring. 6th in EPA/Play Tied for 3rd place in success rate. Even though Evans is not gaining yards, the offense is still working very well.
Aside from his influence, As for the machine as a whole, What is the cause of the drop in production? Naturally, the first factor to consider is the target share. He is currently seeing 6.5 targets per game. This would be the lowest total of his career, and his next closest year would be just over one goal per game.
But this isn’t a huge outlier, and Evans could theoretically benefit from an extra game this season. And his catch rate per game is pretty much in line with last season, considering his 64.1% catch rate, the second-highest catch rate of his career. Evans is averaging 4.2 catches per game, the same level he has in six other seasons where he averaged less than five catches per game.
Again, these numbers are down, but not to a degree that would necessarily prevent Evans from reaching the annual record-keeping standard.
So what is given?
Let’s take a closer look. Let’s take a look at the average yards per catch by depth this season and in the past.
Bucks WR Mike Evans Photo courtesy of USA Today
Mike Evans’ yards per catch on throws under 20 air yards has remained fairly unchanged over the years. This year’s 7.7 yards on throws under 10 air yards is his highest on throws since 2020. Also, his 16.3 yards per catch on throws between 10 and 20 air yards is 0.2 yards higher than his career average.
But what about that deep throw? Well, they don’t throw as much as they used to.
His 23 yards per catch on deep balls would be the lowest of his career by a considerable margin. But it’s not just what he produces when he catches a deep ball. It’s the path itself. they aren’t there. That’s absolutely true.
If you had to guess how many deep balls Evans has caught this year, what stance would you take? Would it be one? Because that’s what it is.
And while his catch rate on these passes is a career-low 20%, it’s the frequency of these passes that is most concerning. Through six weeks, he was targeted just five times with passes of 20 or more air yards. This is only 12.8% of his goals. This is also a career low, and there is still a clear difference.
Bucks WR Mike Evans – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Evans has long maintained that this record is impressive, but he would be willing to trade it for a win. The team is winning and scoring more points. And it’s not like this year’s offense needed those deep shots, nor is the lack of them hurting the team’s ability to hit explosives. The Bucs currently rank tied for 10th in the NFL in explosive passing plays.
But for fans who have long worn Mike Evans’ record for consecutive 1,000-yard seasons as a badge of honor over the past decade, Evans will need to see and catch deeper targets to keep the record alive. Dew. That’s because, while he’s not bad at short-break routes, he’s also not a master of quick movement in small spaces to gain a ton of yards after the catch.
Evans’ best routes are primarily deep, allowing him to burn up a lot of yardage with long strides and defend more space in the corners. Corners, posts, fades, digs and sails are his calling cards. He’s good on slants and short yards and goal line fades, but you don’t usually see him take whip returns.
There’s still hope for Mike Evans’ 1,000-yard season
There’s still plenty of time for Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield to rebuild their deep bond. If Mayfield averages the lowest target depth in the NFL and the offense continues to cook, the defense will eventually try to introduce an additional safety in the box and open things up for Evans. It’s more likely that you need it.
But until then, expect Mike Evans to continue racking up pedestrian yardage totals with elite red zone production. This is evidenced by his high touchdowns this season in the NFL.
