Google’s recent announcement of Willow, a quantum chip that reduces the error propensity of its previous products, is a milestone in its efforts to bring quantum computing to the real world, and will change the way it works in the coming years. There is a possibility that it will change. We think about the risks of cryptocurrencies.
Willow’s speed is almost incomprehensible – According to Googleone of today’s fastest supercomputers can perform calculations that would take ten septi billion years in less than five minutes. 10 septillion is 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years.
But so far, the precision of quantum computing has also been a big issue, and quantum is like a garden hose that no one is holding, the water comes out fast, but its purpose is not consistently accurate. Willow’s combination of speed and accuracy could theoretically give hackers a tool to crack the algorithms underlying Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Qubits and Bitcoin can coexist at the moment
If you don’t understand what quantum computing (qubits) consists of (and many people don’t), Tim Hollebeek, an industry technology strategist at security firm DigiCert, provides a simplified way of thinking about this breakthrough. is shown. He asks you to imagine a maze and imagine a classic computer trying to get through it from start to finish. Try one potential path at a time. “A quantum computer can try each path simultaneously, which would give a much faster solution,” Holbeek said.
Willow may not be ready for real-world applications yet, but its speed and accuracy could help pave the way for larger-scale quantum computers.
“Part of the problem with qubits is that they are unstable and have errors. This chip has significant error correction capabilities that alleviate some of the problems with qubits,” Holbeek said. said.
This means that improved chips based on Willow’s breakthrough could help hackers target cryptocurrencies. But at least for now, that concern is only theoretical.
“If we can develop a quantum computer with enough qubits, it could theoretically solve this problem much faster and pose a threat to today’s cryptographic algorithms,” Holbeek said. . But he added that the practical reason why owning cryptocurrencies makes you breathe easier today is simple. “None currently exists and none are expected for at least another five, 10, 15 years,” he said, noting that the fastest five-year schedule depends on unforeseen technological advances.
10 years of crypto leadership
A Google spokesperson told CNBC that Willow and cryptocurrencies can coexist. “The Willow chip does not have the ability to break modern codes,” he said, adding that Google believes quantum technology with that ability is still years away.
In fact, according to Park Feerbach, an expert in decentralized finance technology and CEO of Radiant Commons, even if Willow could significantly increase the speed of decryption, quantum It will probably take several times the age of the universe for the code to be deciphered. A tip for doing that. According to NASA, the universe is 13.7 billion years old.
“There is little reason to introduce Willow to this technology in a way that would make measurable progress. It would simply still take too long,” Feierbach said.
“Breaking RSA is estimated to take at least 10 years, and it would require approximately 4 million physical qubits to achieve this,” a Google spokesperson said. RSA is an encryption system used in cryptocurrencies.
For reference, Google’s processors are currently around 100 physical qubits in size.
“Quantum safe” algorithm
A Google spokesperson stressed that the timeline for quantum breakthroughs has been widely shared and Willow is not changing it.
“Google remains on track with its planned roadmap,” he said. “The security community has long known the timeline for breaking asymmetric cryptography and has worked to define standards and jointly implement new algorithms that withstand attacks by both classical and quantum computers.” added the spokesperson.
In fact, Holebeek says the crypto industry is working on “quantum secure” cryptography.
Holbeek said the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has released several quantum-safe algorithms that are resistant to attacks by future quantum computers, and that NIST is helping governments and industry ensure the country’s security. The company has prepared a timeline for introducing these algorithms in order to keep the information confidential.
“Google and other industry leaders support standardization and have been experimenting with algorithms in draft form,” a Google spokesperson said.
Despite how efficient quantum is at unlocking algorithms (traditional cryptographic equations based on factorization of large prime numbers), they are not foolproof, and therein lies the promise of quantum-secure cryptography. It is.
“They’re very good at some things, but not everything,” Hollebeek said, noting that breaking traditional asymmetric encryption happens to be one of the things they’re really good at. “Fortunately, there are other difficult math problems that they are bad at, and asymmetric cryptography can be updated to use those difficult math problems instead of factorization,” he said. .
Taki Raza, The assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Amherst said existing cryptography will need to evolve to get around qubits. “There is growing concern that quantum computers could break existing cryptography, and new cryptocurrencies specifically designed to be quantum secure may be developed. will integrate PQC, a cryptographic algorithm that is resistant to the computational power of quantum computers,” Raza said.
Jeremy Allaire, co-founder, chairman and CEO of digital currency company Circle, said in an interview with CNBC last week that while the risks are real, his view of the future remains focused on evolving opportunities. He said he was guessing. “The bottom line is that quantum cryptography means we can more easily unlock old locks, but we can also create better locks,” Allaire said. “So quantum cryptography. This quantum is actually going to be a huge turbocharge for cryptographic computing, cryptographic applications, and cryptocurrencies.”
Raza believes the more fundamental changes brought about by quantum computing will eventually extend beyond cryptocurrencies. Breakthroughs speed up devices and software, revolutionize AI, and improve data security with ultra-secure encryption methods. In everyday life, there will be advances in computing, healthcare, energy, and security, and as a result, there is no need to consider the crypto industry in isolation while these changes are still evolving, Raza said. Ta. “They’ll probably change the industry,” he says.
