Bucs rookie receiver Jalen McMillan is now 16 weeks into his pro career and has already experienced some big highs and some relative lows. After his five-catch, 57-yard performance Sunday night, he now has 27 catches for 336 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 13.6 yards per game.
He already has the most receiving touchdowns by a Tampa Bay rookie receiver since Mike Evans in 2014. McMillan could also take the top spot for the first time since 2014. Evans’ debut work In terms of receptions and yards, he had over 190 yards on just six grabs. Among rookie receivers, he ranks ninth in targets (47) and catches, 11th in yards and tied for third in touchdown catches. Keep in mind he was the 13th receiver taken in this year’s draft.
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Even by any reasonable standard, McMillan has had a solid rookie campaign. However, there was no sign of seeing him for a while. high expectations That was something he was forced to do during training camp. But in recent weeks, the young pass catcher has come into his own.
Since his bye week, McMillan is averaging 3.4 catches, 45.4 yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game, while averaging 1.49 yards per route run. I thought it might be fun to watch considering he’s starting to break out reconnaissance report I looked at him fresh out of college and compared him to the player I expected him to be and the player he is developing into.
Jalen McMillan Strengths
It was noted that while Jalen McMillan is not a speed merchant, he can win downfield thanks to his fluid movement as a route runner. I also described him as a plus against zone defenses due to his ability to find holes and exploit them at quarterback. What made McMillan most dangerous was his quick cutting ability that allowed for easy separation.
Among Bucs receivers with at least 50 routes this year, McMillan is tied with Chris Godwin for the highest average separation on the team at 3.2 yards. And his route running not only helps him win zone, but also helps him find openings against man coverage. Three of his five touchdowns have come in man coverage, and his yardage is about even when comparing the two, even though he has only about half as many routes against man coverage.
Jalen McMillan All 22 vs. Chargers.
🔥23.1% target share
🔥Route rate 86.7%
🔥Goal per route 23.1%
🔥12.7 adot pic.twitter.com/pf6OjnCzX2— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) December 19, 2024
Jalen McMillan’s Weaknesses
Bucks WR Jalen McMillan – Photo courtesy of USA Today
My biggest concern about his game was Jalen McMillan’s ability to catch the ball in tough situations. In his last year in Washington, he had a very good catch rate of 71%, compared to 66% and 67% in the previous two years, respectively.
Most concerning, however, was McMillan’s inability to perform in contested catch situations. Throughout his college career, he only had five chances out of 25. So the success rate is 25%. So when others compare McMillan to his new teammate and say he might be, “Next” Chris Godwin, I was quite skeptical. Godwin is one of the better catch-on collision receivers of the modern era, with a career success rate of 59.4% in these situations.
Even after 15 games, it looks like McMillan still has a chance. He only contested the catch once in nine chances. His only catch in this situation was last week against the Chargers, and he made two high-profile mistakes against Dallas. Most decisive was this dime from quarterback Baker Mayfield that McMillan allowed to rip from his arm.
Cowboys CB Jordan Lewis made an incredible INT and stole a TD from Bucs WR Jalen McMillan.
“It’s Macmillan, huh… Got it?” No, Lewis targeted me! Lewis fought him over it and took it away! ” – Mike Tirico
“It’s a miracle that Jordan Lewis got it!” – Cris Collinsworth #NFL #SNF
— Terrible announcement (@awfulpayment.bsky.social) December 22, 2024 11:24 PM
This is something he will have to improve on if he is ever to be considered a high-end receiver in the NFL.
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo courtesy of Washington
His creativity after making the catch was also a concern. Although McMillan had respectable numbers in YAC, I was more skeptical of his ability to translate that part of his game to the NFL level. This season, he is averaging 3.8 yards after the catch per reception, which ranks second among Bucs receivers and tied for 48th out of 84 qualifying receivers in the NFL.
It wasn’t a strength of his game, but it wasn’t a weakness I was worried about either. As an agent, I watched how effective he was with screen plays and decided that wasn’t what he was good at. So far in his pro career, he has been targeted with four screens and caught three for just nine yards.
While motion is popular throughout the NFL, I argued that McMillan specifically needs motion to be successful. As a less physical receiver, that could help avoid congestion at the line of scrimmage and ease access to the field. Now, according to NFL Pro, JMac is virtually tied with Sterling Shepard for the highest motion rate among the Bucs’ receiving group.
move forward
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by Jeffrey Jones/PR
Jalen McMillan can succeed by honing and perfecting his route running. His current skillset allows him to play a perfect complementary role in a passing attack.
Zay Jones was not a strong receiver with similar measurable contact. But Jones has never exceeded 1,000 yards or 1.5 yards per route run.
If the Bucs’ young receiver is to surpass this parity ceiling, he will need to become a more physical player. Until then, he will remain a viable lower-tier option for the Bucs and not the Mike Evans or Chris Godwin replacement the team will need in the coming years.
But it’s good to see him starting to become the player I expected him to be eight months ago.
