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Israel’s recent retaliatory strikes inside Iran, in response to Iran’s unprecedented missile and drone attack on the Iranian mainland the previous weekend, were a stunning feat of what practitioners of intelligence national strategy call “strategic signaling.” there were.
The Jewish state’s message to the Ayatollahs on April 19 was so bold, direct and unequivocal that Iran may be forced to abandon its bold new tactic of direct kinetic warfare. is high. Jerusalem has tightened its red lines with Iran, and a violent Iranian counterattack inside Israel is unlikely to succeed. Here’s why:
Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has proven to the Iranian regime that its mastery of bombastic rhetoric and its ability to stir up anti-Israel fervor among various groups around the world will not compensate for its military’s incompetence in conventional warfare. did.
Iran’s ‘nuclear energy mountain’ is ‘completely safe’ after Israel attack: state media
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei (Getty Images)
Many dramas have unfolded in different parts of the world, and the usual plays have come out of Tehran. Ahead of Israel’s retaliation, Abolfazl Amooueh, a spokesman for Iran’s parliament’s National Security Committee, warned that Iran would use “weapons that we have never used” to attack Israel. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has threatened “painful and harsh” responses if Israel takes even “the slightest action.”
Reinforcing these warnings, Raisi, speaking at Iran’s annual military parade, threatened to launch “massive and severe” retaliation if Israel began making “the slightest attack.” Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Qani also vowed that if Israel counterattacked, Iran’s reaction time would be “less than a few seconds.”
The usual anti-Israel suspects were ratcheting up their fear-mongering rhetoric, attempting to pressure Israel to “stop” a merely provocative attack on Iran to avoid further escalation. “The Middle East is on the brink,” U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told the Security Council following the Iranian attack. “Local populations face a real risk of catastrophic all-out conflict,” he said, calling for maximum restraint.
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of “a new conflict with devastating consequences for the entire region.” Media outlets around the world ran headlines warning of war between Israel and Iran and the risk of the conflict escalating into a regional war that could involve the United States.
Report of Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran, prompt reaction from lawmakers: ‘Right to defend one’s country’
In the early hours of April 14, 2024, Israeli defense systems intercepted an Iranian missile over Male Admim near Jerusalem. (Matagna Reichmann/TPS)
After Raisi’s phone call with President Putin on April 17, fear spread from the prophet to the international “expert” class. According to major U.S. media, intelligence officials and weapons experts from the U.S., Europe and the Middle East have said Russia will supply Iran with advanced fighter jets and air defense technology capable of destroying stealth fighters operated by the U.S. and Israel. privately expressed concerns about the commitment. . Even President Biden reportedly urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to “succeed in victory” after Israel and its allies intercepted most of the missiles fired during the Iranian attack.
Then the Israeli counterattack began. Kinetic. While accurate, it is calibrated using measured forces. Stealth technology was likely used in what appeared to be covert operations that combined conventional warfare and special operations. The Ayatollahs did not know what had hit them.
The Israeli attack destroyed an Iranian air defense missile battery in Ishafan, rendering it inoperable. The choice of the target, located near the Natanz enrichment facility, which is crucial to Tehran’s nuclear program, was deliberate.
Dozens of Israeli Air Force planes were dispatched to intercept drones and cruise missiles sent by Iran. (IDF Spokesperson Unit)
The Israelis targeted the very systems designed to prevent such attacks. In Western military-strategic terms, it was a blow over the bow of the ship. And the message to Iran was clear. Please break it down. Otherwise, we will destroy the very crown jewel of your war machine: a near operational nuclear capability.Iran played That nuclear card is being used as a psychological weapon to blackmail the region and the West and, most importantly, manipulate Washington into awarding the regime billions of dollars and other concessions.
Compare this to Iran’s April 13 airstrike on Israel, albeit a strategically directed, albeit limited, attack by Israel. Of the approximately 320 drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, only 1% were able to penetrate the combined air defense network of Israel, the United States, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia. IDF spokesperson Maj. Gen. Daniel Hagari, He said this was a “very important strategic success” and that it was 99% ineffective for Iran. It clearly demonstrated the powerlessness of Iran’s fighting power.
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Iranian pro-government supporters gather in Tehran to celebrate the early morning attack on Israel on April 14, 2024. (Hossein Beris/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
No wonder the Iranian government downplayed the Israeli counterattack and almost immediately declared it had no plans to fight back. Immediately after a limited but highly effective attack by Israel, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian spoke in New York, where he was attending a meeting of the United Nations Security Council, and warned that Iran would escalate the conflict. He said he had no intention of doing so. He downplayed Israeli weapons as “toys for children to play with” without acknowledging that the attacks were from Israel.
U.S. intelligence agencies consider Iran one of the top four threats to the United States. The remaining three are China, Russia, and North Korea. The 2024 Annual Threat Assessment released by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence states that Iran’s “hybrid approach to warfare, utilizing both conventional and unconventional capabilities,” is likely to “lead the United States in the region for the foreseeable future.” It has been characterized as posing a threat to the interests of The report also noted that Iran’s ballistic missile program has the largest inventory in the region and emphasized that Iran is focused on improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of its missiles.
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The threat posed by Iran cannot be underestimated, but it is more asymmetric than conventional in nature. For example, the Iranian government has been building a secret network within the United States for more than a decade to kidnap, assassinate, and otherwise harm government officials, law enforcement, and security personnel. The Iranian regime is currently inciting anti-Israel protests that are raging at universities across the United States.
But when it comes to conventional warfare, Israel has clearly shown the world that the Iranian military is no match for Israel, and certainly not for the U.S. military.
Click here to read more from Rebecca Koffler
