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As you know, Iranian mullahs are gloating about anti-Israel protests and harassment attacks by the Axis of Resistance. Esmail Ghani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, has been shuttling meetings in Lebanon and other locations in hopes of stirring up more unrest.
And Iran wants to drive the US military out of the Middle East and realize its dream of regional hegemony.
Don’t count on it. Iran is on the losing end.
Supreme Leader Ali Hamanei speaks during a meeting with students in Tehran, Iran, October 18, 2017. (Iranian Leader Press Room – Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
Iran’s military options are limited, its economy is in shambles, and many governments in the region want to contain Iran behind the scenes. The aftermath of the Gaza crisis will leave Iran in an even more difficult situation than before. Here’s why:
Iranian Hamas leaders declare their evil plans.Please take their word for it.
Iran has packed enough missiles into the region to overburden Israel’s Iron Dome missile defenses.
As National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan put it, Iran plays a “persistent, deep and dark role in providing a full range of support and capabilities to Hamas.” The Revolutionary Guards arms, funds, and trains militias in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, the West Bank, and, of course, Gaza.
However, no matter how much time and money they spend, Iran’s proxies will not be able to overcome the deterrent power of the United States.
Frankly, Iran’s tactical effectiveness was minimal.
On October 20, Yemen’s Houthi rebels fired an Iranian-supplied missile into Israel in a 1,000-mile orbit. The U.S. Navy destroyer USS Kearney intercepted them with some very good target acquisition.
Iran’s foreign minister warns that Israeli-Hamas war has become ‘inevitable’: Report
The destroyer fired SM-2 missiles and shot down three land-attack cruise missiles and eight unmanned aircraft. These were small, low-flying targets that were not easy to track with radar. Destroying them was a major signal that the U.S. Navy could checkmate Iranian proxy missile attacks.
Iranian militias have also attacked US military bases in Iraq and Syria, carrying out more than 40 attacks to date. But as the Pentagon says, the U.S. military has withstood daily attacks like this during the Iraq war and the war against ISIS. Additional Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) squadrons were deployed to strengthen the force’s defenses.
And as before, U.S. Air Force F-16s and F-15Es counterattacked Iranian-backed militia targets in Syria on October 27. The aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford and the aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower attacked. The group has further increased its surveillance and firepower.
As the Israeli military advances its operations in Gaza, Iran’s proxy escalation options diminish. Take the example of Hezbollah in Lebanon and its 150,000 missiles.
Revolutionary Guards commander Ghani has been personally stockpiling Hezbollah for years. But on November 3, Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah opted for restraint. Indeed, he boasted that the so-called “Lebanon Front” was diverting Israel’s army and air force from Gaza and said he was not afraid of American warships.
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Hezbollah is dangerous, but for now Iran’s most armed proxy is far from ready to increase the tempo and carve out a vital northern front.
Iran also cannot risk escalating its military capabilities. Israeli and U.S. forces have been rehearsing the scenario of a concentrated attack all year. During January’s Juniper Oak live-fire training exercise, 100 U.S. and 42 Israeli fighter jets jointly practiced long-range strikes, electronic attacks, and air interdiction.
Then in July, the U.S. and Israeli militaries once again conducted Exercise Juniper Oak with F-16 and KC-10 tanker aircraft to practice offensive air operations. According to Gen. Michael “Eric” Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, they were strengthening “a strong partnership that we rely on in times of crisis.”
In other words, strike options are available in case Iran makes the wrong decision. That leads to deterrence.
Remember that Iran needs its military to be intact to quell domestic protests, such as the protests over the death of Mahsa Amini in September 2022.
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Of course, Iran’s economy remains suffocated. Inflation rate is 40%. China buys 58% of Iranian oil, circumventing sanctions and keeping Iranian operations afloat. During a visit to Beijing earlier this year, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi complained that China was not doing enough against Iran.
China is not picky about spending money to attract countries through its Belt and Road Initiative. However, even China is cautious about investing in Iran. This makes Russia the largest foreign investor in Iran. poor.
Although they don’t say it publicly, many Middle Eastern countries are fed up with Iran’s destabilizing terrorist policies. Yes, President Raisi has been invited to Riyadh for the Organization of Islamic Cooperation meeting in Gaza.
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But the last thing Saudi Arabia wants is a bigger war. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are seeking to diversify their economies. In the long term, Israel remains a potential technology and investment partner. Iran is not like that.
Iran’s hardened revolutionary regime is doubling down on terrorism to maintain power and increase influence. However, they cannot play this losing hand any further.
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