Editor’s Note: A version of this article appears in today’s Middle East newsletter, CNN’s three weekly newsletter featuring the region’s biggest stories. SIGN UP HERE.
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
CNN
—
A devastating earthquake in southern Turkey could change the election equation for Turkish heavyweight President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Entering the 30th year.
on the other hand, 68 year old leader He faced the strongest opposition ever for his presidency. An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.8 Analysts say the quake, which hit northwestern Syria and sent aftershocks across the region, could turn his political career upside down.
Erdogan has visited the affected areas, comforted the victims and pledged to rebuild thousands of destroyed homes. On Tuesday, he announced his 10 emergencies. hardest hit states Many of them have traditionally supported him and his AK party.
However, there is dissatisfaction with the government’s response in these areas, and some people many corpses It has not yet been collected and the stench of death is spreading.
“There is no organized relief work here,” Sinan Polat, a 28-year-old car dealer in Hatay province, told CNN. “There are so many corpses in front of the hospital and there is not even enough cover to cover them. The cemetery is full. No. Under these circumstances, there is no hope for the future.”
Nuran Okul, 55, from the southern city of Iskenderun, told CNN that there are no traces of a state in the city. “It’s been four days and there’s no one here.”
President Erdogan’s reaction Monday’s earthquake, which has killed more than 22,000 people so far in Turkey and Syria, could swing the outcome of the election. Scheduled for May 14.
Erdogan is likely aware of it.on wednesday he Acknowledged “shortcomings”‘ in the government’s early response. The next day, he reminded the Turks of the government’s efforts in previous disasters, promised to rebuild their homes within a year, and promised to help the victims with 10,000 lira ($531) each.
“For Erdogan, the next 48 hours will be decisive,” Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey Studies Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told CNN on Thursday.
It’s unclear if his efforts will save his re-election chances.largely Disaster area It is socially conservative in southern Turkey and home to Erdogan’s Islamist-rooted AK party, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of Istanbul-based think tank EDAM.
“The average AK Party performance in these states is above the national average,” he said, noting that AK Party states generally received more money from the central government compared to opposition-controlled states. He added that he was getting help.
The 10 provinces most affected by the earthquake represent about 15% of Turkey’s population of 85 million, and a similar share in the 600-seat parliament. During the 2018 election, Erdogan and his AK party won presidential and parliamentary elections respectively in all but Diyarbakir 1 province. The region voted for the pro-Kurdish HDP party and its candidate Selahattin Demirtas, who ran for elections from prison.
One of the most powerful earthquakes to hit the region in more than 100 years, the quake has so far killed 19,000 people in Turkey alone and is expected to increase tolls.
I’m getting emotional Many, including those in unaffected provinces, have expressed anger that they feel unprepared for the disaster, especially since Turkey is not accustomed to earthquakes.
In 1939, an earthquake of the same magnitude as Monday killed 30,000 people, and in 1999, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in the northwest of the country killed more than 17,000 people.
For Turkish rulers, earthquakes have been game changers in the past. The 1999 earthquake, which later marked Erdogan’s decisive moment in power, and the slow relief effort that followed were a major blow to the nationalist and secular state in power at the time. Analysts say it only added to the disillusionment the company was feeling.
After the 1999 earthquake, the state “collapsed like Trump’s house,” Kagaptai told CNN. “And it basically destroyed the state’s ideological control over society.”
According to Urgen, the government has been particularly criticized for its unpreparedness to minimize damage from disasters, especially since the 1999 earthquake, when taxes were collected to protect the country from possible future disasters. ing.
The Turkish opposition has already spoken out about the government’s perceived shortcomings in handling the tragedy.
“This insane palace government has cut off social media communications,” said Kemal Kirikdaloglu, leader of the largest opposition Republican party, following nationwide restrictions on social media after the earthquake.
“As a result, it became harder to hear people calling for help,” he says. tweeted on wednesday“We know everything you’re trying to hide.”
Although there has been no official announcement to postpone the May 14 elections, some analysts hope Erdogan and his opponents will come to an agreement at a later date.
Ulgen said it was unlikely that conditions in the affected states would allow a vote to be held.
“Even coordinating elections in these states is going to be very complicated,” he said.
With additional reporting by Yusuf Gezer in Iskenderun, Turkey.
