Staggering data show that there is a 66% chance that the Earth could reach a warming of 2.7°F (1.5°C) within the next five years. New update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 2.7°F is the internationally recognized global temperature threshold for limiting the worst impacts of climate change.
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of WMO forecast Global temperatures are expected to rise to record levels due to heat-trapping gases and naturally occurring El Niño events. The organization also projects that annual mean near-surface temperatures will exceed baselines for at least one year from 2023 to 2027.
The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement set 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit as a guardrail against increasingly dangerous atmospheric warming, and more than 100 countries, including the United States, Argentina, China, and Egypt, agreed to commit to long-term warming if they could. promised to preventspecial 2018 UN report Exceeding this point is dangerous and will cause more death, destruction and damage to the global ecosystem, he said.
According to the WMO, these new discoveries do not mean that the planet will permanently exceed the 2.7°F level specified in the Paris Agreement. The group believes the spike is temporary and less alarming than the agreed climate change danger point.
“A warming El Niño event is expected to occur within the next few months, which, combined with human-induced climate change, will push global temperatures into uncharted territory. It will have far-reaching impacts on water management and the environment. said in a statement.
Scientists 62 percent chance El Niño is expected to hit by the end of this year. El Niño is a natural part of the fluctuating weather system that develops in the Pacific Ocean. For the past three years, the Earth has been stuck in a rare “triple bottom” of opposite phases called a La Niña. La Niña events usually have the effect of limiting temperature rise around the world. The WMO says there’s a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record due to a new El Niño.
Arctic warming is also disproportionately high. This region heats up much faster than the rest of the world. This is mainly because when sea ice melts, it can no longer reflect solar radiation and absorbs heat. This rapid warming is affecting global weather patterns and jet streams.
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Reaching this point, even for just one year, would mean an accelerated human impact on the Earth’s climate system, and that average surface temperature had never exceeded a threshold in recorded history. The world will be plunged into “unknown territory”. The highest average temperature in the last few years was 2.5°F (1.28°C) above pre-industrial levels for him.
Scientists don’t expect the anomaly to occur this year, but the likelihood of temporarily crossing this threshold has risen steadily since 2015, when it was near zero. Between 2017 and 2021 he had only a 10% chance of exceeding this target.
“Global average temperatures are projected to continue to rise, driving us further and further away from the climate we are accustomed to,” said Leon Hermansson, an expert scientist at the Japan Meteorological Agency who led the report. . said in a statement.
