DAVID MARCUS: The top 5 twists that put Trump back in command

In any election, there are things that are obvious at the time, and things that are not so obvious, that shape the state of the race, and how public opinion is reflected on the ground and, ultimately, in the polls, and the results of the polls. will be very different.

This year is no different, with five things that have brought about a general sense of panic among Democrats and a newfound confidence in Republicans since the contest entered its final stages under early September skies. There were events, twists and turns along the way. .

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As of the end of August, Kamala Harris was firmly in the lead, and Donald Trump had been criticized by some on the right for choosing J.D. Vance as his running mate, and frankly It is worth remembering that things were looking very rosy for the president. Democratic Party. But all that was about to change.

Here are five moments that brought about that change.

1. RFK Jr. supports (and normalizes) Trump

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Donald Trump in late August was the moment Trump regained electoral momentum. Harris’s lead remained flat, albeit by a narrow margin, but the Trump campaign also stalled.

RFK Jr. did two things. First, he brought most of the voters to Trump, as polls now show. They are not big fans of Trump or Harris, but they are people who trust the Kennedy scion to hold both to account. Second, this support was an arrow to the heart of the argument that Trump is a fascist or a threat to democracy. If Kennedy didn’t support it, then neither did most centrist Americans.

2. The mirage of victory in the Harris debate

In the minutes after the Harris-Trump debate last month, Democrats and their media allies were gleeful that Kamala was speaking truth to power and stylistically bashing the bad orange man. Ta.

Others were less sure. Sure, Trump looked unfazed and Harris did better than most expected, but she had a unique job to do. It was especially important to her to tell the American people who she was and what she represented. Please do so. She has flatly failed on this point, and every voter I spoke to knew it. This was the biggest missed opportunity in the race for either side. Harris had no momentum. In fact, that’s when the polls started shifting toward Trump.

Republican vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance gestures at a rally for former President Donald Trump, the Republican vice presidential candidate, at the scene of the assassination attempt on President Trump that occurred in July in Butler, Pennsylvania, on October 5. Senator (Republican, Ohio). , 2024. Reuters/Carlos Barria (Reuters/Carlos Barria)

3. JD Vance Strikes Back

As I’ve been arguing on this page for months, the media’s farcical attacks on J.D. Vance as weird never caught on with voters, but they were enough to create an early roadblock. Experts have come to declare his choice wrong. He then debated Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz and won a clear, if not overwhelming, victory.

Before and after the debate, Vance sought out every tough interview he could get his hands on, proving deft and capable of defending Trump and populism, even in the teeth of left-wing talking points. Today, it is clear that his choice was a boon for the ticket.

4. Joe Biden voters are jumping ship.

Amid all the difficult pivots and switchbacks of the last month, no one I’ve talked to – voters, experts, consultants or clairvoyants – said they saw anything like this coming. This meant that a significant number of voters, especially in Pennsylvania, would vote for the next party. Scranton Joe, but he didn’t vote for Harris.

The shocking moment this was revealed came after the Teamsters announced their support for Kamala after the union’s internal investigation revealed that Biden beat Trump while Trump beat Harris among union members. It was a refusal. According to Pew Research, Trump is leading among Catholic voters, a leader Biden won in 2020. Harris refused to attend a Catholic Al Smith banquet, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer wore a Harris Waltz hat and mocked the Eucharist on TikTok.

This could all be revenge against Joseph Robinette Biden.

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5. Harris’ embarrassing media gauntlet

Last week, as concern turned to panic in Democratic circles, the Hidin Harris 2024 camp realized that there was a problem: No one knew who she was, and she should be on TV. It didn’t work.

First, when her performance on “60 Minutes” was so poor that her curt, real-life responses to questions about Israel resembled a litany of nationalistic buzzwords, CBS News secretly I had to edit it.

Harris then appeared on “The View” and couldn’t think of anything else the Biden administration should do, but hours later she was able to answer the same softball question on Stephen Colbert’s show. There wasn’t. Not only is Harris not ready for prime time, he’s also not ready for daytime or late nights.

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With just over three weeks left until Election Day, a lot could change, but for the past month and a half, every holiday has gone according to Trump’s wishes, and Harris has been trying to figure out who she is and what her policies are. We are unable to fight back because we deliberately refuse to define it.

The Harris campaign needs a big change in the final stages, but after five twists and turns, all Trump has to do is stick to his guns and return to command.

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