Most securities industry leaders in February still expected to have full staffs by this time next year, according to the Intel Index. But even before Friday’s NAR $418 million settlement, that optimism was waning.
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Even before brokerage industry leaders started worrying about last week’s National Association of Realtors settlement, they were already losing confidence that next year’s payroll plans would materialize.
This weakening tailwind for intermediary employment was one of the Inman Intel Index’s key findings in February. The survey recently sought insights from 811 real estate professionals, including 166 in brokerage and association leadership roles.
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Most of these leaders remain positive about the developments the market will bring to their businesses over the coming year.
But with mortgage rates remaining high and Federal Reserve officials making clear they are prepared to keep rates higher for longer than previously expected, many in the industry are looking forward to next year. It’s starting to soften.
The outlook, while still optimistic, is weakening, reflected in nearly every aspect of the industry tracked by the Intel Index in February. Client pipeline expectations.
And this is something that may be further tested in the aftermath of the NAR settlement, something Intel plans to track over the coming weeks and months.
Learn more in the full report below.
Expectations for employment fade
Heading into 2024, the situation was clear. Many broker owners and agents believed the market had collapsed. has already hit the bottom were ready for their business small to moderate reboundIntel index found.
In the case of a securities company, the number of transactions is greatly affected by the staffing available to support agents. The higher the number of agents and sales, the more help a company will need at other levels of trading.
Even today, that image is mostly accurate. But a lot has happened since then, much of which has served to blunt the industry’s sharpest expectations.
- Percentage of securities company leaders who expected Number of employees increases decrease from ~ in 12 months 57 percent In January 48 percent During February.
- Percentage of securities company leaders who expected Staff reduction Rise in 12 months 7 percent In January 13 percent During February.
- Still, many brokerage leaders remain cautious. 36 percent Expects employee numbers to remain the same in January report almost the same Shares rose over the next year 39 percent During February.
Apparently, this change in attitude occurred before the news of the NAR settlement. The March survey, launched today, will paint a clearer picture of how industry sentiment is changing in light of recent news.
In addition to this outlook, the study provided insight into why the underlying market conditions are deteriorating.
Deepening negative feelings for some
What could be tempering expectations for next year?
Some of the macro factors are obvious. The Fed’s slow rate cuts, persistently high mortgage rates, and lower-than-expected transaction levels may all be contributing factors.
But you can look to Intel’s research for more context.
- Percentage of brokerage firm leaders who reported Staff reduction Today compared to 12 months ago, it was about the same from January to February and has been hovering around this lately 23 percent.
But the breakdown within that group leans even more negatively.
- almost 5 percent Respondents across brokerage leaders reported a “significant decrease” in employee numbers in February compared to the same month last year.
- In January, the same share was below. 2 percent.
At this stage, it may be difficult to determine how much of this movement is due to market forces or simply changes in the population surveyed in January and February.
But there is one thing to consider. That said, news of last week’s settlement is still emerging and could be a big jolt to popular opinion tracked by the Intel Index.
Intel will continue to track this story and provide forward-looking insights as the industry responds.
Methodology notes: this month inman intel index investigation was conducted from February 20 to March 3, 2024. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate. intel We received 811 responses.Respondent to this investigation They were directed to the SurveyMonkey platform, where they self-identified their profile in the residential real estate market. Respondents were limited to one answer per device, but there was no restriction on IP address. Once a profile (Residential Realtor, Mortgage Broker/Banker, Business Executive/Investor/PropTech, etc.) was selected, respondents answered a unique set of questions regarding that specific profile.because investigation Demographic information regarding age, gender, and geography was not requested, nor was the data weighted.this investigation It is conducted monthly and includes both recurring and unique questions for each profile type.
Email Daniel Huston
