Zyon McCollum Is Due For A Big Breakout In 2024

The Buccaneers have a lot of faith in Zion McCollum. The ultra-athletic cornerback has steadily improved since being a fifth-round draft pick in 2022 and is poised to become a starter this season. Tampa Bay officials were so confident in his leap from Year 1 to Year 2 that it was their trade off This offseason, they acquired talented veteran Carlton Davis III with a third-round draft pick.

Buccaneers CB Zion McCollum – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR

McCollum will be far from a complete player in 2023, but there are plenty of signs of improvement that have the Buccaneers excited about where he is and, more importantly, where he can go in the future.

Zion McCollum’s 2023 From 20,000 Feet

Here are some high-level metrics to help evaluate McCollum’s 2023 season. Pro Football Focus, He was targeted 93 times in 574 coverage snaps, meaning he was targeted once every 6.17 coverage snaps. By comparison, the average target for an NFL cornerback last year was once every 7.12 coverage snaps, meaning McCollum was targeted more than usual.

McCollum allowed 56 catches out of 93 targets for a catch rate of 60.22%, 4.42% lower than the average cornerback. Those 56 catches gave up 635 yards, giving him 1.11 yards per coverage, 0.04 higher than league average. He allowed 258 yards after the catch (0.45 yards per coverage) and forced 9 incomplete passes (9.68% of the times he was targeted). The league averages for the last two metrics are 0.41% and 11.95%, respectively. Adding it all up, McCollum is performing as a slightly below average cornerback.

Considering McCollum’s lack of experience playing against elite opponents in college and his limited playing time in 2022, this was actually a positive development.

Zion McCollum’s improvement from 2022 to 2023

McCollum has made a huge leap in his play from Year 1 to Year 2. The overall theme around this improvement comes from a much better understanding of the defense and his role within it. Instead of reacting to the player in front of him, we see McCollum process the play as a whole and react to the role that is being asked of him. This is especially evident in run defense, where we see him understand that as an outside corner, he has a key role in sealing plays on the edge.

Buccaneers CB Zion McCollum – Photo: Cliff Welch/PR

During his rookie season, McCollum would often dive into the run and beat defenses and fail, after which the opposing running back would blast outside for a big gain on the undefended edge.

In 2023, he has improved that considerably by freelancing less and chasing the ball, instead placing firmer trust in the rest of the defense while maintaining his own gap.

We also see McCollum playing more confidently in the zone as a deep third defender, and by the end of the season he was comfortable pinching deep verticals, as evidenced by this two-play sequence with former Buccaneers guard Scotty Miller:

Those improvements were a godsend for the Buccaneers, as they had to rely on McCollum more than they expected — he played more snaps than Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III — and those improvements allowed him to perform at a league-average level all season long and help the defense.

Where does Zion McCollum need to improve this season?

For McCollum to be promoted to an above-average defensive back, he will need to continue to develop several areas, including:

Inbreaking Route Defense

Buccaneers CB Zion McCollum – Photo Credit: USA Today

Watching McCollum’s 2023 season, it quickly became clear that he prefers to push his receiver releases outward, where he can put his big body between the quarterback and the pass catcher while simultaneously pressuring the sideline to create an extra defender. But the majority of the catches and yards he allowed last year came on inside releases on slants or shallow crosses in man coverage. This was due to two factors.

First, McCollum’s punches when pressed were extremely erratic, often missing his jab altogether and throwing him off balance and far behind his receiver, who was then able to release cleanly and proceed on his route unhindered. Second, as McCollum attempted to hedge releasing to the outside for his receivers, he would often stumble with his footwork as opposing receivers set him up with various release techniques.

In the second half of the season, McCollum’s pressing technique improved, combining a more consistent and accurate jab with more balanced footwork and he began using his outside hand on the receiver’s hip to get a better idea of ​​which way the pass route was going.

It wasn’t just in press man that McCollum struggled against in-breakers. He could also get tweaked when playing zone. When receivers closed the gap on him, they could catch him hedging a corner/outside release and quickly switch to a post/dig to get him out of position. For McCollum to improve year-to-year, he’ll need to be more patient and allow his stem to develop. Or, be a bit more physical when receivers get closer to his stem, disrupting his rhythm by disrupting the timing of his route.

The improvement towards the end of the season is encouraging but far from what we would expect at this point, but if they can further improve their defense against in-breakers, their target rate, catch rate allowed and ultimately yards allowed should go down.

Tackle

Buccaneers CB Zion McCollum and Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. – Photo courtesy of USA Today

I mentioned earlier that McCollum’s tackling has improved since his rookie year. That’s encouraging, but he’s still not a reliable tackler. McCollum still has a tendency to lower his head, miss his target, and attempt hard shoulders. I posted a thread of cut-ups of his games. here.

Look at his tackling technique. There are so many missed and near missed tackles that I don’t like. Sure, it led to a forced fumble at one point, but that was the exception, not the rule. Compare his tackling to running mate Jamel Dean’s and it’s a world apart in terms of technique and consistency.

Utilizing athletic ability in a limited space

McCollum’s speed and hip flexibility are unique strengths that most cornerbacks don’t have. He can recover quicker than most. To take advantage of that talent, the Bucs would be wise to let him play with less pre-snap cushion. There were some plays last year where he sensed a speed out or a quick hitch and closed in quickly. He could make a quick tackle. In 2024, if he plays in a zone closer to the line of scrimmage and has shorter closing distances, those tackles could be pass breakups.

Good luck if the offense tries to adapt to this by playing more double moves and fades. McCollum performed best against fades/go routes last year, and any time he plays to a deep vertical defense he plays to his strengths even more. This strategy will help him against quick routes and encourage the offense to play to his strengths even more.

Given his annual learning curve, in-season improvement and natural athleticism, Zion McCollum’s future looks bright as he enters his third season, and I believe he’ll have a big season with the Buccaneers in 2024.