Now that the Bucks’ schedule has been released, Las Vegas has announced the betting lines for each game the team will play in 2024. Tampa Bay has been favored in 7 of 17 games.This is a jump up from last year When they were favored after just two games.
Adding up the Bucks’ winning odds in each contest, they are projected to win 7.88 games next year, which would be a step back from their nine wins in 2023. It also proves to be a bit of value for those who like to place bets. They beat Las Vegas’ projection of a total of 7.5 wins.
But these lines also offer a glimpse of Tampa Bay’s ceiling and floor for the 2024 season.
Based on the implied odds for each game, determine the odds (0-17) for each possible win total, and from there determine the minimum number of wins that constitute the team’s lower bound (10th percentile) and upper bound (90th percentile). Masu.
Implied odds for Bucks to win each game
Here are the implied odds for Tampa Bay to win each game this year.
We have extracted the “best lines” regarding betting lines from below. roto wire Then I pulled out Vegas Edge.
Bucks have an advantage in 7 games in 2024
Find the cumulative odds of each win total
Here are the odds that Tampa Bay will win a given number of games:
Odds that the Bucks will win a certain number of games
Based on this, we see that the odds of Tampa Bay winning four games or fewer are only 4.32%. This creates a reasonable “lower bound” since anything smaller is two standard deviations outside the mean.
Conversely, based on this, the team only has a 3.49% chance of winning 11 or more games, which is a reasonable “upper limit.” This leaves a seven-win difference between the two teams. Below is a graphical representation of Tampa Bay’s chances of winning by less than or equal to each number of games.
The Bucks are more likely to reach the ceiling than the floor.
Looking at the difference between their implied win total of 7.88 and the currently established ceiling, there is a closer relationship between the implied win total and the upper bound (3.12) than between the implied win total and the lower bound (3.88) . This means that Tampa Bay has a better chance of winning between his 7 and 11 games than he has between 4 and 7.
Good news on paper, pewters.
Implied win totals for remaining NFC South teams
Bucks RB Rathard White – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Based on the implied odds for each week of the NFL season, the Bucks are expected to finish second in the NFC South as a result. Tampa Bay has won the division the last three seasons, but keep in mind that the past two years have been close.
In 2022, the Bucks went 8-9 in the NFC South, while all three other teams finished 7-10. Tampa Bay and New Orleans both finished 9-8 last year, but the Bucks won the NFC tiebreaker.
The Atlanta Falcons are projected to lead the division with 9.36 wins this year. The New Orleans Saints are projected to finish in third place with 7.39 wins.
And, unsurprisingly, the Carolina Panthers are expected to finish last. However, the Panthers’ win total prediction of his 6.57 Bucks may surprise some of his fans.
