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Opinion polls show that Joe Biden is close to Donald Trump, but looking at the White House’s approach to the next election, there is no way they can win unless they demonize Trump like they did last time. I’m not at all confident that I have the strategy, approach, and message to fit it. 2020 and 2022.
The problem with this approach is that, above all, elections tend to be referendums on incumbent politicians. And previous polls show that voters now feel better about their quality of life. was Even more so under the Trump administration. teeth Under the Biden administration, this suggests the incumbent is far more likely to lose than win.
Former President Trump leads President Biden by 2 percentage points (47% to 45%), according to a new national poll from Shane Cooperman Research. RealClear Politics’ average general election poll comes to a similar conclusion, with Trump leading Biden 47.5% to 45.5%.
President Biden and former President Trump (Fox News)
To make matters worse, Biden’s approval rating stands at 38%, according to the latest Wall Street Journal poll, and averages 39.6 points according to RCP. In our experience, reelection is virtually impossible if the incumbent’s approval rating is less than 40%. So this is not just a warning sign, but a sign of an electoral near-death experience.
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Our poll shows more than a third (35%) of Democratic voters think the party should nominate someone other than Joe Biden. Additionally, half of respondents (50%) think Biden is mentally unfit to be president, compared to 44% who think the same about Trump.
To make matters worse, Biden loses on nearly every issue compared to Trump, especially the economy (51% to 40%) and the border (58% to 29%).
But as one of us (Doug Schoen) advised a president in the White House in a similar situation: We both recognize that we are facing a much more serious problem. election.
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The difference, as he told Mark Penn and Doug Schoen, is that after 1994, Clinton understood that he needed to quickly change course. Clinton got tough on crime, took bipartisan efforts to reduce the national debt, and embraced values. Related issues such as welfare reform. He understood that repositioning was essential to his chances of re-election.
Joe Biden has been campaigning on the platform of “Bidenomics” until recently, but judging from opinion polls, it was clearly a failure. Despite Biden’s talk about creating jobs and revitalizing the economy, Americans don’t feel the same way.
As expressed in the latest CBS poll, Americans feel the economy is worse off under the Biden administration than it was under the Trump administration by a margin of 27 points (65% vs. 38%). A new editorial in the Wall Street Journal notes that while Biden’s ratings of the economy are improving, his overall economic approval rating has risen 10 points (31%) in two months, and voters have They are 7 points (43%) more likely to speak out about public finances. More than two-thirds of voters still express dissatisfaction with inflation.
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This presents a strong obstacle to overcome, but the White House has shown no interest or ability to address the problem head-on.
Mr. Biden must speak directly to Americans about inflation and address concerns about the cost of living, including how inflation is affecting daily life. That would allow him to continue his positive economic trajectory and improve his record on economic leadership, as the Wall Street Journal noted.
On immigration, voters were 16% (66%) more likely to say immigration is “very important” to them, compared to 2022, according to the latest Morning Consult poll. Only 50% of voters said the same. After the collapse of the bipartisan immigration deal, there was no sustained, unilateral effort by the administration to resolve the southern border crisis. With Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas insisting there is little Biden can do without Congress, and Republicans in both chambers arguing to the contrary, it remains unclear whether the president will be able to take action.
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But in our view, Biden has used executive orders to unilaterally strengthen the southern border, tighten and limit asylum procedures, and remain virtually silent except to reject bipartisan legislation on funding for immigrants and refugees. We need to show leadership on the issues we have been dealing with. War in Israel and Ukraine.
But absent honest policy proposals from the White House, President Trump’s nearly 30-point lead on immigration can and should be expected to continue indefinitely.
In 1995, Mr. Schoen remembers working with Mr. Clinton to strategize about what could be done to mobilize independent voters and people who opposed her because of her shift to the left. This was a unique focus for Mr. Clinton, and our firm was able to help her navigate it.
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But at this point, the ability to consider whether or not this White House is willing or able to consider alternative approaches other than attacking Donald Trump, as it did in 2020 and 2022, as it did in 2020 and 2022, even if successfully. We both doubt at this point whether there is, or even an inclination to consider it.
For the first time, I think we can say that Mr. Trump is the clear favorite in the presidential election. Whether that continues remains the central question over the next eight months.
Click here to read more from Doug Schoen
Carly Cooperman is the CEO of Shane Cooperman Research.
