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Political outcomes rarely turn out the way all pundits expect, and nowhere is that more true than in the Republican and Democratic primaries, which begin with the Iowa caucuses.
But it’s no surprise that former President Donald Trump wins the Iowa caucuses. He holds a commanding lead among conservative voters in Iowa, and the caucus process benefits activists who attend and organize for the hours-long event. mass persuasion. He has a record lead in the Des Moines Register poll.
The big question is what will happen to the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink further. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis started this primary season with all the advantages of early momentum, big electoral wins in his home state, and big money, but he still hasn’t made it to the finish line. It seems to be dragging.
If he performs well, he could revive the campaign. If he finishes third, I predict he will drop out. He has both the most winners and the most losers in this primary.
DeSantis denies rumors he would drop out of 2024 race if he loses in Iowa: ‘Completely fabricated’
Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a lot to win here and little to lose. Although she has shown steady momentum month after month, she was never expected to perform well at Iowa State. Polls have her in a close third place, and a finish like that would clinch a trip to New Hampshire. If she instead finishes second, she would receive a huge boost, especially if DeSantis drops out and either supports her or does not join any candidate’s side. right.
The big question is what will happen to the remaining Trump opponents and whether Iowa will shrink further.
Remember, this is a difficult process. But this year, the rules have changed to make it more like a primary. People have to attend in the evening and possibly hear some speeches, but then they just have to vote by secret ballot. Only registered Republicans, but you can switch your party registration if you want to be Republican.
As you may recall, the last Iowa caucuses became so sophisticated and computerized that no one could actually know the results, and virtually the entire thing was canceled.
This time, the Democratic Party really canceled the Democratic caucus. This is part of the “threat to democracy” campaign they are trying to advance by eliminating real democracy.
Therefore, President Joe Biden cannot lose, cannot win, and cannot be challenged. The Democratic caucus does meet, but it only deals with party management issues and does not question the president’s intentions. Instead, Democrats can request a form, receive their ballots by mail and return them by March 5, when counting will take place. These ballots will not be mailed to all Democrats, but only to those who want them, which seems to make it easier to vote by mail in the general election, but some are hoping that won’t be the case in the primary. It seems so.
Ahead of the Iowa caucuses, here’s who key lawmakers have already endorsed for president
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. left the Democratic Party due to the party establishment’s favoritism towards the current president, and Congressman Dean Phillips remains, but the Biden campaign is trying to attract as many members as possible. They are busy excluding him from meetings and primaries.
Phillips was removed from ballots in Florida and North Carolina, even though he was not charged with leading the insurrection. They put him on the Iowa Postal Caucus roster along with Marianne Williamson, but he won’t be around to the count until March.
Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie appear to be overshadowed in the Iowa caucuses, and if polls are correct, they will face difficult choices after the caucuses.
Ramaswamy continues to predict major upsets, but he appears to have been one of those firecracker candidates who appear on the scene and disappear under scrutiny.
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Christie was completely misunderstood and made headlines for saying his campaign goal was to defeat Donald Trump, but that certainly doesn’t seem to be happening in Iowa.
In general, the Iowa caucuses were not very helpful in predicting victory on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee won in 2008. Ron Paul won in 2012. Ted Cruz won in 2016.
Given this track record, it’s a little unclear why Republicans put so much effort into this caucus, but being in first place sets the tone, and that candidate often goes on to win, so who cares? Finishing in second place is especially important.
Mr. Trump has so far missed all Republican debates, but he knows the political power that a strong start can bring, and he used his advantage in Iowa to his own problems and legal peril. Regardless, he wants to use it as evidence to fight back by lashing out.
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He’s showing up in Iowa now and pushing his body.
It looks like he’ll get his wish in Iowa, but remember that politics, especially primaries, can often confuse us, even when we think we know what’s going to happen.
Click here to read more from Mark Penn
