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Do you think it was wrong for America to turn its tail and withdraw from Afghanistan? A quieter but even worse situation is looming in the Pacific.
The United States’ defense in the Asia-Pacific region is centered on a line of defense that stretches from Japan to the Philippines, Taiwan, and Borneo. The so-called first island chain.
It seeks to defend itself from China along the first island chain without having a secure “rear area” in the central Pacific. And let’s say the person behind you is Chinese.
Chinese destroyer Jinan and Russian cruiser Varyag sail in formation after a joint naval exercise in the East China Sea on December 27, 2022. (Sun Fei/Xinhua via Getty Images)
The United States’ control of the Central Pacific relies on three treaties known as the Compact of Free Association (COFA) with Palau, the Federated States of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands. These countries and their vast maritime territories make up much of the “East-West Corridor” from Hawaii to the western edge of the Pacific Ocean, which is essential to U.S. control and military operations in the region.
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COFA gives the United States legal authority to operate freely and exclude other countries’ militaries. In other words, military access and control.
As part of the agreement, the three countries receive financial and other support from the United States, including the right for their nationals to live and work in the United States. And we should never forget that citizens of COFA states serve in the U.S. military at a higher per capita rate than nearly every state in the United States.
The COFA agreement is up for renewal, and the agreement has passed through a meandering dozen committees, with only a vote left to pass. That’s highly doubtful.
One stock is a $2.3 billion offset. That means $2.3 billion would have to come from other federal sources to fund COFA.
The $2.3 billion is spread over 20 years, so it averages out to about $40 million per year for each country. Yes, $40 million. 30 minutes of Medicaid fraud.
We blew a trillion or two trillion in Afghanistan. And are we complaining about $120 million a year?
Everyone is blaming everyone else.
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Congress has blamed other parts of Congress and the White House. The White House is blaming Congress.
The White House can raise money if it wants to. it’s not.
In fact, the White House National Security Council has Asian czar Kurt Campbell, who should have made it his mission to pass COFA. After all, he was the “emperor”. Instead, he was bailed out, unsuccessfully promoted, and just confirmed as assistant secretary of state. Par for a Washington course.
Congress could also come up with funding if it wanted to. That’s not so – or distracted by “borders”, Ukraine, Gaza and many other things.
Perhaps the Department of Defense, which has the tough job of protecting the Asia-Pacific, could show some initiative and imagination and suggest redirecting significant funding elsewhere.
Only $120 million a year? It’s easy.
Disconnect the DEI program and everyone associated with it within the Department of Defense.
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Reduce FOGO by 10%. In other words, “flagship officer, officer.” That way you will get the money easily and no one will notice that the “flag” is missing.
To make matters worse, the COFA agreement is said to have been arbitrarily removed from consideration by “budget-conscious” lawmakers the other day, even though the bill did not require any offsets. Now other senators are trying to take it back.
If we lose the central Pacific, we’ll be defending Hawaii and Southern California as countries that rely on us, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Australia, start hedging their bets.
China will be happy.
China already has a strong commercial and political presence in COFA countries (and nearly all other Pacific Island countries) and aims to draw these countries away from the United States. And it’s successful.
Common approaches include monetary payments, financial aid, and bribing officials to facilitate the entry of Chinese organized crime and even encourage secessionist movements to weaken a recalcitrant federal government. Sometimes even.
Blank checks from China are said to be on the desks of the presidents of each COFA country. They are not cashed in – that is their deep attachment to America.
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However, their patience is not unlimited and they find their former friends disrespecting them. Yes, they are very angry, but they don’t show it.
Imagine you are president, and you spend much of your term negotiating an agreement with the United States, and you finally sign an agreement with the U.S. government. And then in a few months we have to tell the people that Congress is so uninterested that they haven’t even scheduled a vote on the deal, so there’s no money for the post office, schools, pensions, health care, and their tax dollars are disappearing. It doesn’t have to be. have to climb.
China, on the other hand, offers to solve all problems.
This is serious. The cost of not renewing COFA and continuing to do what is necessary to maintain our relationships with these countries will be paid by the many fallen American service members.
Some may wish that Gen. John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, would put his star on the table and resign because of this clown show.
Will he? of course not. That doesn’t happen anymore. The current crowd is different from famous World War II admirals Chester Nimitz, William Halsey, and Raymond Spruance.
And speaking of our Asia-Pacific friends, maybe Japan will step in and offer to pay?
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This isn’t the first time a Japanese company has taken out its checkbook because it believes its profits are at risk.
It pays nearly $2 billion a year to support the stationing of U.S. troops in Japan, where the nation’s security is at stake.
And in 2008, when the U.S. financial system was collapsing, the big Japanese banks, presumably at the behest of the Japanese government, gave up $9 billion to keep Morgan Stanley (and the U.S. financial system) afloat. I cut a check.
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A deal of $120 million a year for 20 years (total of $2.3 billion) would be an even better deal for Japan.
If the U.S. government is unable to accomplish this, perhaps Japan could help. Otherwise, we deserve to lose.
Click here to read more articles by Grant Newsham
