in Carroll County, New HampshireKubitschko’s securities firm is based in Altos Research The Market Action Index score has fallen from a 90-day moving average of 43 in March to 39.73 as of June 21, 2024. Altos believes that a reading above 30 indicates a seller’s market.
The remaining two counties The northernmost part of the state — Koos and Grafton — showed a similar trend, with their respective Market Conduct Index scores dropping from 39 to 37 and from 47 to 42 over the past month.
“Buyer trends have changed dramatically in the last four to five weeks,” he said. Charissa KennardAgent Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Berani Realty“We had a very busy winter and spring, but the spring market was a little slower because we had a big snowfall in April with over two feet of snow. That may have contributed to the unusual nature of this year.”
Despite the economic slowdown, Badger Peabody & Smith Real EstateHe said the market is actually still pretty strong.
“While the overall number of pending listings is up slightly, an increase in pending sales of 3, 4 or 5 percent is welcome because it’s a move in the right direction,” Smith said. “Buyers are still buying and sellers are still selling, so there’s really nothing to fear at this point. This is a good thing because buyers have the opportunity to be a little more careful with their offers and don’t have to worry about waiving inspections or loan conditions.”
Despite the rise in homes up for sale, local real estate agents said properties are taking longer to go under contract, leading to an increase in inventory and days on market.
In Coos County, the 90-day average days on sale is 49, up from 42 a year ago, according to data from Altos Research. In Grafton County, the seven-day average days on sale jumped from 21 in early May to 35 in late June.
Additionally, inventory has increased across the three counties in recent months, most notably in Grafton County, where it has skyrocketed from a 90-day average of 106 single-family properties in mid-April to 147 in late June.
In addition to properties staying on the market longer (leading to a small but welcome backlog of inventory), local real estate agents say more homeowners are looking to put their properties up for sale.
“We’ve definitely seen an increase in inventory, and in some places homes are staying on the market longer and prices are dropping because buyer activity has decreased,” Kubitschko says. “We’re seeing more homes listed right now than we’ve seen in years.”
Altos data also shows this trend, with the 90-day average number of new single-family homes on the market in Grafton, Carroll and Coos counties jumping from 11, 6.2 and 5.3, respectively, in early March to 25, 20 and 11 in late June.
The increase in new listings in northern New Hampshire contrasts with what real estate agents are seeing in many other markets across the country, where low mortgage rates on current owners are holding off would-be sellers.
“When you see the inventory going up, part of me thinks people want to sell but can’t find the right property and don’t know where to go, or maybe they’re waiting for the top of the market to grab as many properties as they can,” said Kelly McDougall, a North Conway-based real estate broker and regional sales director for Real Estate. Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate Masiello Group.
“I think what we’re starting to see here is that if sellers are ready to sell or want or need to sell, they’re starting to get tired of putting it off. How long are they going to wait for prices or interest rates?”
Local real estate agents aren’t sure exactly what’s causing this recent market slowdown, with some speculating it could be a confluence of factors, including still-high home prices and rising interest rates that make homebuying more difficult, heightened interest in the presidential election and simply the start of summer vacations.
“These are tough times,” McDougall says. “When in history have we had a post-pandemic market with interest rates the highest they’ve been in a while, low inventory and a presidential election year? Those four factors alone make for an interesting market. Typically you’d have one, maybe two at most, happening at a time, but we have all four at once, which makes it difficult for Realtors.”
While the market may not be ideal for sellers, real estate agents say the current market is the best it’s been for buyers in years.
“I think we’re a little bit overdue to get back to a balanced market, if not a buyer’s market, so I don’t think that’s the worst thing that could happen and it seems like we’re heading in that direction,” Kubitschko said of current market trends.
“And that’s great for all buyers. Buyers are now in a slightly better position than before and aren’t as intimidated about entering the market. They also have more time to think about the property and decide if it’s the right choice for them, and maybe even be able to lower the price a bit, instead of falling in love with the house and not knowing if they’re going to get it in a bidding war. It’s been a refreshing change, really.”
