As Christmas Day approaches, we can only hope: federal reserve They now recognize that 1970s-style inflation fears are creating rate hike cycles that have a disproportionate impact on the U.S. housing market, and that they need to become housing advocates again.
Despite all the drama we faced in 2022-2023, the housing market remained intact and did not collapse. Before opening presents, take a look at his tracker for the week before Christmas to see what his future data will look like.
Weekly housing inventory data
We are nearing the end of the year, which means that the seasonal decline in housing inventory is here to stay until we find a seasonal bottom in inventory in 2024. But one thing is for sure: From 2020 to 2023, we never saw a single home seller in credit stress. . In 2023, we never saw the Airbnb crash that dominated some of the housing news. Inventory levels are still too low for my liking, but it’s good to see they’re not at the 2022 levels they were when they were in stock. 240,194 Total active single-family properties available for purchase by Americans.
- According to last year, Altos Research, the seasonal peak in housing inventory was October 28th. This year’s peak was November 17th.
- Weekly inventory changes: (12/15-22): inventory has fallen 538,767 to 528,601
- Same week last year (December 16th to 23rd): Inventory decreased compared to the previous year 522,869 to 508,777
- The bottom price of inventory in 2022 is 240,194
- So far, the inventory peaks for 2023 are: 569,898
- Check out this week’s active list for context. 2015 was 1,013,245
One of my concerns about the rise in mortgage rates was that new property data could show another drop in rates. It won’t be good for the home since most of the sellers are homebuyers. This he tested in 2023 with a mortgage rate of 8%. Not only did that not happen, but the new listing data was very stable, meaning a bottom was forming. This is a big Merry Christmas present for the housing market. months ago CNBCWe talked about how this data will increase in the second half of this year.
However, the key to this data line is that we expect real year-on-year growth to return to 2021 and 2022 levels in the spring of 2024. Historically, 2021 and early 2022 had the two lowest numbers of new listings ever. data. However, once interest rates rise above 6%, it marks a new low for 17 months since July 2022. For the marketplace to function, we need new listing data to bring it back to 2021 and 2022 levels. That means even more sales could occur in 2024. This is what I expect from him in 2024.
Last week’s new listing data for the past few years:
- 2023: 36,897
- 2022: 31,794
- 2021: 35,834
Traditionally, one-third of all homes are discounted before they go on sale. As mortgage rates rise and demand falls, more homes will receive price reductions. However, even though mortgage rates reached 8% this year, they were consistently below 2022 levels. We end the year with mortgage rates down about 1.5% and price reduction data below 2022 levels.
This week’s price drop rates over the past few years:
- 2023: 36%
- 2022: 40%
- 2021: twenty five%
Mortgage interest rate and 10-year yield
Last week was pretty tame considering the fireworks two weeks ago. There has been no major movement in the 10-year bond yield or mortgage interest rates.This week’s mortgage interest rates are 6.65% and finished 6.68%. There was a lot of interesting economic data, especially his PCE inflation data, which recorded about 2% growth using his 3-month and 6-month averages. However, there was little movement in the 10-year Treasury yield last week. Next up is the final week of trading, with some big bond market bids. We might see some decent action in the bond market next week.
Purchase application data
This will be the last purchase application renewal of the year as MBAs will take a vacation week. We will report on the vacation period in the new year. Traditionally, I tell people to ignore the last few weeks of the year because most people are preparing for Christmas and New Year, so trading volumes always drop. But that being said, we did see a modest decline last week. 0.6% Calculated weekly and counting from the beginning of the year to the present 23 positive and 24 minus, and two flat print.
That speaks volumes when you consider that mortgage rates have increased from 5.99% to 8.03% and that weekly purchase applications are likely to have more positive print than negative print this year. .The housing market is functioning by keeping the hurdles for sales low; 4 million Core homebuyer numbers remain stable in 2023.Total housing sales should be almost achieved 5 million Even if house prices rise significantly and mortgage rates rise.
The week ahead: Bond auctions and home prices
This week will be a quiet week for economic reports. There are several home price index reports and some large bond bids that could move the bond market during the holiday trading week.
I would like to wish you a happy holiday and a Merry Christmas. We know the housing market has been tough this year with a lack of existing home sales and loan originations. 2024 should be a better year. My 2024 prediction for him will be released on January 1, 2024. Until then, enjoy your vacation with your family. And remember. The housing market suffered during his two years, languishing with the lowest sales. It’s a historical level when you consider the civilian workforce, but it hasn’t been broken, and neither are you reading this.