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Taiwanese people elected Lai Ching-toku as president earlier this month, giving the Democratic Progressive Party control of Taiwan’s executive branch for another four years. Many of the headlines surrounding the results focused on China’s response. But observers need to take a moment to appreciate both the success of Taiwan’s democratic practices and the wise messaging from officials in Taipei and Washington before, during, and after the election.
Taiwanese and American leaders fought wisely on election night. Lai Kiyotoku struck exactly the right tone in his victory speech. While firmly committing to “maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” he also offered to “pursue exchanges and cooperation with China.” These were not the kind of flamethrower words used by Chinese authorities to criticize Mr. Lai. Rather, his comments signal a willingness to forge a new path in cross-strait relations (even if Beijing remains unlikely to retaliate).
Before the election, officials in Washington emphasized that they supported Taiwan’s democratic process and would not take a position on the selection of Taiwan’s leader. A White House official said, “No matter who is elected, our policy toward Taiwan will remain the same.” To emphasize this point, a bipartisan group of former bureaucrats descended on Taipei to congratulate the president-elect and meet with other political leaders who contested the election. After all, Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party together hold a majority in Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan and will likely continue to be important political actors.
What Taiwan’s election says about China and 2024
Not everything went according to plan. President Joe Biden, who has said four times that he would protect Taiwan, said only after the election that he “does not support independence.” Biden’s comments are consistent with administration policy, but they are just one piece of a larger puzzle. It was important, therefore, that his administration had already made a clear point that placed the remarks in a broader context.
The basic arrangement that U.S. leaders must accept is that the United States intends to maintain deterrence to “maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,” but that “a final resolution of cross-Strait differences is not possible.” We need to make it clear that we do not take a position on It was resolved peacefully. ” This is a fine line, but it is the right message for China, Taiwan, and the rest of the world. By hammering out a clear message ahead of the election, officials avoided letting Mr. Biden’s statements unduly distract from Taiwan’s successful practice of democracy.
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Unfortunately, while Taiwan and the United States avoided measures that would increase cross-strait tensions, China sought to increase pressure on Taiwan. The Chinese government reportedly offered Nauru $100 million to remove it from a list of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies. U.S. and Taiwanese leaders will need to be wary of further Chinese actions, including conducting military exercises and increasing economic pressure.
Despite Lai’s restrained victory speech, the fact that China has reversed its usual strategy of pressure tactics against Taiwan only highlights recent policy failures. Chinese leaders could continue to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, threaten it militarily, and coerce it economically. However, these policies are not bringing about the political change that Chinese leaders want in Taiwan, and are likely to be hindering it. Keeping doing the same thing and expecting different results is not the secret to success.
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With the election over, attention now turns to Mr. Yori’s inauguration ceremony on May 20, four months later. China has reacted badly to a number of recent inaugural speeches, including that of Taiwan’s current president, Tsai Ing-wen. As a result, experts are warning this date as the next potential hurdle that all parties must responsibly address if we are to get through 2024 without another cross-Straits crisis. Dew.
As we look forward to Mr. Lai’s appointment, we must not lose sight of the fact that Taipei and Washington have just shown that they can be good stewards of cross-strait relations. The year ahead will bring many challenges, but at least what happened earlier this month has proven to be a dog that doesn’t bark.
Zach Cooper is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.