Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds previews the upcoming Bucks game with six quick-hit topics. What’s at stake for the Bucs and their opponents, what could lead to a win or loss for Tampa Bay, and some key matchups to watch each week.
The Bucks had their four-game winning streak snapped by a feisty Cowboys team, 26-24, on Sunday Night Football in Dallas. The loss moves Atlanta ahead of Tampa Bay in the NFC South. The Bucks are no longer in control of their playoff destiny and will need to beat both the Panthers and Saints and get help from either the Falcons or Commanders to have a chance of making the postseason. .
What’s at stake for the Bucks?
Bucks HC Todd Bowles – Photo courtesy of USA Today
All the Bucs had to do to win the NFC South for the fourth straight season was win. But last Sunday’s 26-24 loss at Dallas and Atlanta’s 34-7 win over the New York Giants derailed Tampa Bay for the time being. If the Bucks make it to the postseason, the team has two paths. Either they win one more game than the Falcons and win the division, or they make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed instead of the Commanders. The Falcons and Commanders will play this Sunday in Washington. For Tampa Bay, it would be better for Atlanta to lose in the next two weeks, but as long as Tampa Bay wins and finishes 10-7, it would be fine for Washington to lose.
Aside from making the playoffs, head coach Todd Bowles’ job may be in jeopardy. Bowles finished his first season as Tampa Bay’s head coach in 2022 with an 8-9 record, but the Bucks won the NFC South because the division was so bad. A 31-14 loss to the Cowboys in the home wild-card game meant Bowles would need to show improvement in 2023 to continue leading the team. That came with a 9-8 record against the Eagles last year and a convincing 32-9 home playoff victory.
Bowles and the Bucs got off to another promising 3-1 start, going 4-6, and then bounced back for the second straight season. After losing four straight en route to a bye, the Bucks won four straight from the bye to improve to 8-6 before Sunday’s loss at Dallas. If Tampa Bay doesn’t make the playoffs, the franchise could consider parting ways with Bowles, especially considering the defense’s poor performance this year. Offensive coordinator Liam Cohen has emerged as a leading head coaching candidate, and the team doesn’t want him to leave to lead another team, as Dave Canales did with Carolina last January. Maybe.
What’s at stake for the Panthers?
Panthers head coach Dave Canales – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Former Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales has signed on as the Panthers’ new head coach, taking over the NFL’s biggest rebuilding job. A non-first-round pick on one of the worst rosters in the NFL, Canales’ infectious spirit is helping to make Will Carolina a formidable opponent going forward. After a dismal 1-8 start that included former first-round pick Bryce Young being benched after just two games, the Panthers showed signs of life, winning three of their last seven games. That included a 36-30 overtime thriller against the Panthers. Cardinals last week.
Carolina won the next three games, stymied Kansas City, lost 30-27, and lost to Tampa Bay 26-23 in overtime. So if the ball bounces in their favor in both of these games, Carolina could potentially win two more games, totaling six wins for the year.
Either way, Coach Canales has the Panthers playing good football heading into the 2025 offseason, and with the final two games of the year being played in Tampa Bay and Atlanta, the team could serve as a spoiler for either the Bucks or Falcons. There is a possibility that it will be fulfilled. The arrow is pointing towards Canales and the Panthers, and if they can finish the year with two or two more wins, Carolina could finish with some momentum heading into next season.
If the Bucks win…
Bucs DT Kariya Kansi and Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Tampa Bay was fortunate to win in overtime against Carolina. As the Panthers moved into field goal range, Bucs outside linebacker Anthony Nelson stole the ball from running back Tuba Hubbard, and Yaya Diaby recovered the fumble. It was the winning score, capped off by a Chase McLaughlin field goal, and Tampa Bay ultimately won in overtime under coach Todd Bowles. The Bucks will need to force turnovers defensively, especially after losing the turnover battle 3-0 in Dallas.
The Bucks not only have to steal the ball when defending, but they also have to protect the ball when attacking. Tampa Bay suffered Dallas quarterback Baker Mayfield’s 15th interception of the season and two fumbles, including one by Rathard White on a potentially game-deciding drive on the team’s final possession. He scored three goals including Mayfield threw two picks against the Panthers in Carolina and must play without turnovers.
The Bucks need to score first, too, right? Tampa Bay is 8-1 if they take the lead, but if they don’t score for some reason, they don’t win. So winning the coin toss is the key to victory, and then you can score a touchdown on your first drive. That actually happened in Carolina in Week 13, but it would be great to see the Bucs pull away from the Panthers instead of the game being on the line.
If the Panthers win…
Panthers QB Bryce Young – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Carolina did everything it needed to do for the season opener against Tampa Bay, except make the deal. The Panthers were within field goal range in overtime, but Tuba Hubbard stole the ball from their hands. The Bucs took advantage of the turnover and drove for the winning field goal. Learning how to close games is a key part of growing for a bad team on its way to being a good team, and the Panthers trended in that direction last week with a 36-30 overtime win over the Cardinals. We have taken a big step.
So Dave Canales’ team should head into Raymond James Stadium full of confidence and belief that they can go head-to-head with the Bucks in Week 13 against Carolina and come away with a blow-for-blow victory. . Quarterback Bryce Young has been playing much better down the stretch, with eight touchdowns and four interceptions over the last seven games. But the offense isn’t as explosive, so the Panthers’ defense will have to step up and hold the Bucks to 23 points or less to have a chance at winning.
Carolina is playing much better on both sides of the ball, scoring up to nearly 23 points per game on offense. Tampa Bay is currently giving up an average of 23.5 points per game and just gave up 26 points to backup quarterback Cooper Rush in Sunday’s game against Dallas. With Todd Bowles’ defense struggling to defend the middle of the field, expect Canales to attack that area in the passing game and take advantage of it.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ offense
Bucks WR Mike Evans vs. Panthers CB Jaycee Horn
Bucks WR Mike Evans and Panthers CB Jaycee Horn – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Mike Evans vs. star cornerback again. jaycee horn At 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds, Horn has enough size to compete with Evans, but Tampa Bay’s top receiver fumbled against Carolina in their last matchup. Evans had his first 100 yards of the season in Tampa Bay’s 26-23 overtime victory and had a dramatic touchdown catch against Horn in the first quarter. Evans currently has five 100-yard games against the Panthers, the most against any other team. Three of Evans’ 100-yard games also came at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
Evans had seven catches for 162 yards, including a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown in last year’s 21-18 win over the Panthers, but Horn struggled in that game. Horn struggled against Carolina in Week 13 with six tackles and two pass breakups, but was unable to stop Evans from reaching 100 yards. For the Panthers to pull off an upset victory, they will need to win a head-to-head battle in Tampa Bay.
Evans is closing in on an NFL record, extending his streak of consecutive 1,000-yard seasons to 11 years, but he has one more big challenge ahead of him. He missed three games with a hamstring injury but has two 100-yard games in the last four weeks. Evans, who gained 818 yards through Week 16, will need to average 91 yards per game over the final two weeks to reach 1,000 yards. It’s possible, especially given his track record in big games against the Horns and the Panthers in the past.
Key matchups for the Bucks’ defense
Bucks Front 7 vs. Panthers RB Tuba Hubbard
Panthers RB Tuba Hubbard and Bucs ILB Labonte David – Photo courtesy of USA Today
Carolina showed a lot of confidence in running back Chuba Hubbard by giving him a big contract extension earlier this season. The Panthers signed him to a four-year, $33.2 million contract as a sign of confidence in the franchise’s desire to reward its star. Hubbard, 25, will be the catalyst for Dave Canales’ offense. The former fourth-rounder rushed for 902 yards and five touchdowns last year, but is having a career year with 1,195 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. And he increased his average distance from 3.8 yards per carry last year to 4.8 yards per carry this year.
Hubbard had just one 100-yard game with Tampa Bay last year, rushing for 104 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry. But he has topped 100 yards four times this season, including 153 yards against the Giants in Munich and 152 yards in last week’s overtime game against the Cardinals. Hubbard had his first 100-yard game last year against the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium, but lost 21-18. But Tampa Bay held him to just 43 yards on 12 carries in Week 13 against Carolina and forced a fumble in overtime.
bucks defense After giving up seven 100-yard games on the ground early in the season, including 244 yards against the Ravens on Monday Night Football, he’s had a great run since his bye week, stopping runs. Tampa Bay boasts a top-10 rushing defense, holding Dallas to just 31 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries (1.6 average) last week. There’s no question that the Bucs will need to hold Hubbard under 100 yards to win on Sunday.
