WASHINGTON — A year of turmoil in the House is coming to an end, with more Democrats than Republicans deciding to leave the chamber, a disparity that could have a big impact on next year’s elections.
About 20 Democratic members have announced they do not want to run for re-election, and half are running for other offices. Meanwhile, only 14 Republicans have said they are not seeking another term, and three are seeking election elsewhere.
More retirements are expected after the holidays, when lawmakers will have a chance to spend time with their families and make decisions ahead of the re-election deadline. But so far, the numbers do not indicate that House dysfunction is causing mass defections from both parties.
“The members had some idea of what the institution was now when they chose to run for office,” said Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. The institute is a think tank that maintains a database of important parliamentary statistics, including those on retirees. . “While some of them may be frustrated at the moment, I don’t think anyone who has been elected to Congress in recent years will be surprised at what they find when they get to Washington. .”
Certainly the most high-profile defection was Republican. Congressman George Santos (RN.Y.) became the third Congressman to be expelled by his colleagues since the Civil War. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) became the first speaker to be removed from the chamber by his colleagues. He chose to retire on December 31st rather than serve as a regular soldier.
But with a small number of Democrats defecting in battleground states, Republicans believe the overall prospect of retirement will give them an advantage in determining who controls the House after the 2024 election.
Reps. Katie Porter of California, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia prove that Democrats can win in crowded districts in both good and not-so-good election cycles. did. They all seek higher positions within their home states. Mr. Porter and Mr. Slotkin are running for the U.S. Senate. Spanberger is running for governor in 2025.
Democrats also lost six-term Michigan Rep. Dan Kildee to retirement, leaving them with another competitive open seat to defend in a state that will be crucial in the presidential election. Virginia Democratic Rep. Jennifer Wexton is not seeking re-election, citing health concerns in a Democratic-leaning but more competitive district than others.
On the other side of the aisle, outgoing Republicans typically represent districts where Democrats have little chance of flipping. Their replacements will likely be Republicans, predicted Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the House Republican Campaign Committee.
“Retirements are a big issue for Democrats. They’re not an issue for us,” Hudson said.
The exception is Santos, who represents the highly competitive New York area. Democrats are hoping former Rep. Tom Suozzi will regain the seat he lost when he ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2022.
Oklahoma Republican Rep. Tom Cole said it was “a little bit surprising” that more Democrats left than Republicans, given everything that’s happened this year.
“Politically, I think we’re in a very good position going into 2024,” Cole said. “I think the margin will remain narrow no matter who wins. The number of competitive seats is significantly lower than it was 10 years ago, we’re much more polarized, and it’s hard to move big numbers.” Whoever wins will also win the House of Representatives.”
Sometimes, state legislators tip the scales in determining the composition of Congress. That’s one reason there are so few competitive races.
The three incumbent Democratic members of the House of Representatives from North Carolina have virtually no chance of returning after the state’s Republicans drew new district boundaries. Once a hotly contested seat, the seat is now all but certain for whichever Republican is elected in the state’s primary.
Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson has decided to run for attorney general rather than run again for the Charlotte-area seat he just won in the 2022 midterm elections. Fellow freshman U.S. Rep. Wiley Nickell, who flipped his district in the last election, also announced he would not run and would instead focus on the 2026 Senate race. And Congresswoman Kathy Manning said she would win. He cannot seek re-election based on the current map, but an election would be held if a federal lawsuit seeking to cover new districts is successful.
Manning said the city of Greensboro, in his district, was split into three parts and combined with the rural county. She won in 2022 by a 9 percentage point margin, but she said her new district gives Republican candidates a 16-point advantage.
Democrats are hoping that court-ordered redistricting in Alabama and Louisiana will favor their side, effectively dooming the redistricting battle.
Ambition also influences retirement trends. About half of the Democrats not seeking re-election to the House are seeking office elsewhere. They include three senators running for the seat formerly held by California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who joined the Senate in 1992 and served for more than 30 years until her death in September. ing. Slotkin is running for the seat held by Sen. Debbie Stabenow for more than 20 years. Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota is running for president against fellow Democrat Joe Biden.
“If you’re interested in higher office, you’re going to be sensitive to when those things happen. They don’t always show up,” Reynolds said.
Still, a small number of lawmakers believe their resignations are at least partly due to the parliamentary dysfunction they have witnessed.
New York Democratic Congressman Brian Higgins has no intention of waiting for the results of the election. He plans to retire in February.
“We are spending more time doing less. And the American people are being underserved,” he said when announcing his retirement last month.
Republican Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) expressed a similar sense of frustration when announcing his retirement. He has criticized Republican leaders for “lying to America” that the 2020 election was stolen and for downplaying the Jan. 6 riot.
“Our country is colliding with reality and moving forward with an unwavering commitment to truth,” Buck said.