Hong Kong
CNN
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In the years before Covid, China was the world’s most important source of international travel. Its 155 million tourists spent more than a quarter of a trillion dollars across borders in 2019. I was.
That big money has dropped sharply over the last three years as the country essentially closed its borders. But as China prepares to reopen on Sunday, millions of tourists are poised to return to the global stage, raising hopes for a recovery in the global hospitality industry.
International travel may not return to pre-pandemic levels soon, analysts say, but businesses, industries and countries dependent on Chinese tourists will gain momentum in 2023.
China averaged about 12 million outbound air passengers per month in 2019, but that number fell 95% during the Covid year, according to Steve Saxon, a partner in McKinsey’s Shenzhen office. He predicts it will recover to about 6 million monthly by the summer, driven by the stagnant wanderlust of young, wealthy Chinese like Emmy Lu, who works for an advertising firm in Beijing.
“i’m so happy [about the reopening]!” Lou told CNN. “Because of the pandemic, I was only able to wander around the country for the last few years.
“It’s just that I’ve been in the country too long. I’m really looking forward to the lifting of restrictions and being able to go somewhere else! At 30, she wants to go to Japan and Europe the most. I added that I think
As China announced last month, it will exempt incoming travelers from 8 January, including residents returning from overseas travel. The number of international flight and accommodation searches on Trip.com quickly reached a three-year high.
(TCOM).
International travel bookings during the Lunar New Year holiday from January 21st to January 27th this year surged 540% compared to a year ago. Chinese travel website. Average spend per booking he increased by 32%.
The top destinations are Asia-Pacific, including Australia, Thailand, Japan and Hong Kong. The US and UK also made the top ten.
“Rapid accumulation… [bank] Alex Lu, macro strategist at TD Securities, added that frequent lockdowns are likely leading to restrained household spending.
He said there could be “revenge spending” by Chinese consumers, reflecting what happened when many developed markets reopened early last year.
This is good news for many economies hit by the pandemic.
“We estimate that Hong Kong, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore would benefit most if imports of Chinese travel services return to 2019 levels,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Hong Kong — the most visited city in the world 56 million arrivals Most of them will be from mainland China in 2019, and their GDP could grow by an estimated 7.6% as exports and tourism revenues rise, they said. Thailand’s GDP could be boosted by him 2.9% and Singapore’s by 1.2%.
Elsewhere in the world, Cambodia, Mauritius, Malaysia, Taiwan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, South Korea and the Philippines are also likely to benefit from the return of Chinese tourists, according to research from Capital Economics.
Hong Kong has been particularly hard hit by the closure of its border with mainland China. The city’s key industries, tourism and real estate, have been hit hard. The financial hub expects GDP to shrink by 3.2% in 2022.
The city government announced Thursday that up to 60,000 people will be allowed to cross the border each day. One way from Sunday.
some more The tourism-dependent Southeast Asian nation has maintained relatively relaxed entry rules for Chinese tourists despite the record Covid-19 outbreak that has hit China in recent weeks. includes Thailand, Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines.
“This is one of the opportunities we have to accelerate the economic recovery,” Thailand’s health minister said this week.
New Zealand has also waived testing requirements for Chinese tourists, who were the country’s second largest source of tourism income before the pandemic.
But other governments are more cautious. So far, more than a dozen countries have mandated testing, including the United States, Germany, France, Canada, Japan, Australia and South Korea.
The European Union on Wednesday “strongly encouraged” member states to require visitors from China to test negative for Covid before arrival.
Saxon, who heads McKinsey’s travel business in Asia, said there was a clear “tension” between tourism authorities and political and health authorities in some countries.
Airlines and airports have already denounced the EU’s recommendations for testing requirements.
The International Air Transport Association, the aviation industry’s global lobby group, along with airports represented by ACI Europe and European Airlines, Joint statement On Thursday, he called the EU’s move “disappointing” and a “reflexive reaction”.
However, they welcomed the additional recommendation of testing wastewater as a way to identify new subspecies of the disease, which they said should replace testing passengers.
Analysts say it will take time for international travel to fully recover, as many Chinese will have to renew their passports and apply for visas again, in addition to the restrictions.
Lu, who is from Beijing, said he was still considering travel plans given the various testing requirements and the high cost of airfare.
“Restrictions are normal because everyone wants to protect the people of their country,” she said. “We will wait and see if some policies are relaxed.”
Liu Chaonan, 24, from Shenzhen, said she originally wanted to go to the Philippines to celebrate the Chinese New Year, but didn’t have time to apply for a visa. So she switched to Thailand, which offers quick and easy electronic permits.
“Time is short and we need to leave in 10 days or so. People may choose visa-friendly places and countries to travel,” she said, planning to learn scuba diving and shopping for cosmetics. The total travel budget can exceed 10,000 yuan ($1,460).
Saxon said he expects China’s outbound international travel to fully recover by the end of the year.
“In general, we welcome Chinese tourists because individuals are pragmatic and countries have spending power,” he said, adding that if the Covid situation in China improves, countries will soon It added that restrictions may be lifted on
“It will take time for international tourism to get back on track, but when it does, we will be back in a hurry.”
