Dubai is underwater.due to a severe storm flash flood Shocking scenes have been shared on social media across the United Arab Emirates, with cars abandoned on roadsides and planes clattering over flooded runways. Hundreds of flights were canceled at Dubai’s busy international airport, and at least 18 people were killed in neighboring Oman.
News reports and social media posts quickly pointed the finger at cloud seeding. The UAE has a long-running program to try to squeeze more rain out of clouds that pass over normally arid regions, spraying passing storms with salt particles to release more water. There is a pilot team to facilitate the formation. The flood was seen as a warning. Several: This is what happens when you play with nature.flat bloomberg They reported that cloud seeding had worsened the flooding.
The truth is more complicated. For the past few months, I’ve been reporting on his cloud seeding in the UAE for an upcoming WIRED feature. While it is true that the UAE is carrying out a cloud seeding mission this week, more than 300 times a year, it would be an exaggeration to say this. That was the cause of the flood. (In fact, as we prepared to publish this article on Wednesday morning, the UAE’s National Meteorological Center told CNBC There were no clouds at all until the storm hit on Tuesday. )
There are several reasons for this. First, even the most optimistic estimates of cloud seeding say it could increase rainfall by up to 25 percent annually. In other words, it would have rained anyway, and even if cloud formation had an effect, it would have only slightly increased precipitation. The jury is still out on the effectiveness of cloud seeding in warm climates, and even if it were effective, cloud seeding would not be able to produce rain from thin air, rather it would strengthen what is already in the sky. All you can do is
Second, seeding operations tend to take place in the eastern part of the country, far from populated areas such as Dubai. This is mainly due to air traffic restrictions, but it also means that it is unlikely that the seed particles were not already active by the time the storm reached Dubai. Most scientists I spoke to said the effects of cloud seeding would be very small and local, and unlikely to cause flooding in other areas. But perhaps the best evidence that cloud formation was not involved in these floods is the fact that it rained throughout the region. Although Oman did not implement cloud seeding, the flood damage was even greater, causing many casualties.
While it’s exciting to point out scary technology, the real cause of the flooding is probably more mundane. Dubai is comically ill-equipped to deal with rain. The city has expanded rapidly in recent decades, but until now little attention has been paid to infrastructure such as storm drains that can handle the sudden influx of water. Mostly made of concrete and glass, there is little green space to absorb rain. The result is chaos every time it rains. However, to be fair, most cities would struggle to cope with a year’s worth of rain. 12 hours.
However, climate change may also be playing a role. As the planet warms, the region’s complex weather dynamics are changing, potentially producing more intense storms. Urban planners around the world are trying to make their cities “spongier” to combat flash flooding and conserve more water for drier times of the year. Rather than using cloud seeding to turn the sky into a sponge, Dubai would be better off trying to turn the city into a sponge.