A few days before Christmas, the Nationals general manager picked up the phone and dialed an out-of-state number. That number that Mike Rizzo dialed was nothing more than the tallest general manager of baseball, Chris Young, shortly after the Rangers and Nat swapped. Robert Garcia straight from Nate Lowe.
The players the Nationals thought they would get from the Texas Rangers were no different to what they received. Nathaniel Lowe has had a consistent presence in the Rangers lineup since 2021, and is sometimes known for his solid on-basic skills and power. However, Lowe has taken a more aggressive approach with the plate this season.
Consistency between 2023 and 2024
Lowe’s 23′ and 24 inch seasons showed stable production from the plates. Make him one of the most reliable first bassmen in baseball.
- 2023: .262/.360/.414, 117 WRC+, 12.8% BB rate, 22.8% k rate
- 2024: .265/.361/.401, 121 WRC+, 12.6% BB rate, 22.1% K rate
These numbers drew a picture of who Lowe was: average hit ball data, excellent on-bass skills, and not a ton of power, but a solid, disciplined batter. A player who puts a pencil in the middle of the lineup without thinking twice. So it seemed fair to assume that it was the version of Lowe that NATS gets in 2025.
12 games to Nate Lowe’s 2025 season
I know it’s still early in the season, but Lowe looked like a completely different guy. He suddenly became one of the most interesting hitters in baseball.
- .244/.306/.511 (.817 OPS), 3 HR, 116 WRC+
The surface counts shown here are solid, but what’s interesting is It’s at the root metric.
- Average exit speed of 93.7 mph (Top 10% of MLB)
- 20.0% barrel rate (Top 3% of MLB)
- 56.0% hard hit rate (Top 4% of MLB)
According to baseball’s Savant, Lowe has seen the biggest increase in hard hits from 2024 to 2025. It is the second largest increase in average outlet velocity and the second largest increase in barrel rate. It suggests a power breakout, but it becomes strange. Despite this surge in contact quality, Lowe’s butt speed has dropped by 1.5 mph from last season. He swings his bat around slowly, but it makes no sense to hit the ball harder.
Plate approach
The answer may be his approach. This year, Lowe has become prominently offensive on the plate. It’s very different from his time in Texas.
- Swing %: up from 42.7% to 48.2%
- Zone swing %: Increased from 60.1% to 64.0%
- Chase rate (O-Swing%): 23.9% to 45.9% (well below the league average)
He is swinging more frequently, especially outside the zone, which comes at a serious cost to his plate discipline. His walking rate fell to a big dip (12.6% to 8.2%), and his contact indicators plummeted.
- contact address: 57.7% (Average from 74%)
- Zone contact information:83.8%
- Chase contact information:51.8%
This result? Lowe has the present 40.8% strikeout rateranked at the bottom of the league.
Recreate what we learned
Lowe did 180 regarding his plate approach. He’s swinging more than ever, he’s hitting the ball harder than before. While walking less and attacking more than most people in baseball. It was before the Dodgers series when Lowe first realized he had switched his plate approach.
Thankfully, his numbers were true and didn’t change much, so I was able to write a story for him. It is said that his walking rate rose from 6.6% to 8.2% after the Dodgers series. So we still have a lot of baseball and Lowe’s new approach may not last for the entire season. I think we’ll have to keep watching as the year progresses!
