Iran’s options dwindle as it prepares retaliation for death of Nasrallah

With Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah confirmed dead, the pressing question is not whether Iran will respond, but how.

Hezbollah is the founder of the Islamic Republic, built on decades of effort and billions of dollars in support. Hezbollah, formed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in 1982, remains the regime’s main proxy.

Israeli military says Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Beirut attack

The relationship between Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah was almost familial, resembling that of a father and son. But Nasrallah’s recent missteps, including intelligence failures and the assassination of senior commanders, left Khamenei in charge of managing the aftermath. His death now makes it even worse.

Iran’s leadership cannot sit idly by while Hezbollah endures this level of humiliation and damage. Doing so would not only result in the weakening or loss of its most important proxies, but would also mark the beginning of the dismantling of the entire regional strategy of eradicating the state of Israel, empowering Islamist groups, and expelling US forces from the Middle East. There is a possibility. .

Given that this unraveling is not allowed, Khamenei and his regime have three options to consider.

Iran’s leadership cannot sit idly by while Hezbollah endures this level of humiliation and damage.

First, it will provide logistical and propaganda support, as it did in 2006, the last time there was a direct war between Hezbollah and Israel. The commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, Ismail Qaani – an expert in irregular warfare and military intelligence – and his team, like Qaani’s predecessor, now remain in Hezbollah’s underground operations room. They will be sent to a location where they will command and control Iranian proxy militants. The late Qasem Soleimani did so almost 20 years ago. This time, Qaani will also coordinate proxy attacks against Israel from Iraq, Syria and Yemen, but unlike in 2006, the Israeli government’s actions in recent weeks have dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah since October 7. I doubt if you’ll change your mind, though.

The second option is to escalate the conflict through proxies and set the area on fire. Based on the idea of ​​de-escalation, this means that the Revolutionary Guards and their proxies are advancing the interests of the United States, Europe and Arab countries in the Middle East in the hope of creating external pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. It means to aim. Please step back. Targets would include oil refineries, commercial ships, and Western military locations throughout the region.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei tours the inside of a uranium factory. (Getty Images)

Beyond the Middle East, the Revolutionary Guards will further intensify terrorist operations against the international Jewish community. They did this in Thailand, India, Cyprus and Bulgaria in the 2010s, and since October 7th, Mossad reportedly We have thwarted more than 50 Iranian-backed attacks against Jews abroad. The regime may be calculating that targeting Jewish civilians abroad will be enough to provoke a reaction that compels Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to use his powers.

The third option is to attack Israel directly. This would certainly satisfy the most radical supporters of the Revolutionary Guards and its proxies, who are already critical of the Iranian government’s reluctance to attack Tel Aviv directly. New information from Israel and the United States suggests that Hezbollah has urged Iran to intervene directly, but if Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards choose a direct attack, the symbolic attack in April of this year A much larger attack would be required. Whether the Revolutionary Guards will be able to penetrate Israel’s defense systems is another question, but direct Israeli retaliation against Revolutionary Guard positions in Iran is almost certain, an outcome the regime wants to avoid.

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Which way does the Ayatollah’s thumb point? The Revolutionary Guard’s asymmetric doctrine and military infrastructure suggest that the most likely scenario is a combination of the first two options. The idea is to provide logistical support while causing destabilization and chaos within and outside the region.

But Khamenei weighs his options against the backdrop of an economic crisis and deep national misery. Any weakening of Iran’s economy, including a hit to its crippling $500 billion infrastructure deficit, could provoke further anger among Iranians against their unpopular ruler. As the recent reaction to the assassination of a senior Revolutionary Guards commander shows, any blow to the regime is welcomed by many in the country, and further dissent arising from wrong foreign policy choices will spark further domestic protests. , which could increase pressure on the top leadership.

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Particularly under President Donald Trump, the combination of domestic and international pressures, along with a strategy of undoubted destabilization and disruption, could do great damage to the Ayatollah and his regime. Prime Minister Nasrallah has already lost, and whatever path he chooses, Khamenei will lose even more.