Last year’s seasonal peak in inventory was October 28th. Altos Research:
- Weekly inventory changes (September 29th – October 6th): Inventory has increased 534,746 to 537,032
- Same week of the previous year (September 30th to October 7th): In stock 561,229 to 562,249
- The bottom price of inventory in 2022 is 240,194
- So far, the inventory peaks for 2023 are: 537,032
- Check out this week’s active list for context. 2015 was 1,168,416
New listing data has been at an all-time low for more than 13 months, but at least it’s an orderly decline.What I talked about recently CNBC about how to look at it The data will change from flat to positive soon.. The number of new listings increased slightly from a year ago last week, but remains at an all-time low. If there’s any hope for 2023, it’s that even though interest rates were higher this year than last year, new listing data hasn’t moved further down.
This week’s new listing data on a year-over-year basis is as follows:
- 2023: 58,103
- 2022: 58,083
One piece of housing data that people don’t know is that typically one-third of all homes go down in value each year.Last week’s price drop was lower than the same period last year. Four%. This comes as a surprise to many, as mortgage rates and home prices are currently higher than they were last year.
The best way to explain why discount rates are low year-over-year, even though interest rates are rising, is that home sales haven’t plummeted like they did last year. This year it has gradually decreased, and the inventory is still negative every year.
Rate of price reduction for the same week over the past few years:
- 2021: 29%
- 2022: 42%
- 2023: 38%
Mortgage interest rate and 10-year yield
This has been a bad week for mortgage rates. He had four major labor reports, the three most important all looking good, and the least valuable looking weak. I wrote about the job report and the soaring mortgage interest rates here. I also wrote about Friday’s jobs report and its immediate impact on the bond market.
Bond market volatility is historically high right now, as bond selling has been very active recently. This is an oversold market in the short term, meaning we could see an uptick in bonds soon. For now, my focus is on 4.87% The 10-year Treasury yield reached this level in overnight trading this week. An attempt to break above that level on Friday following a better-than-expected jobs report failed.
Purchase application data
Last week’s purchase request data was down 6% compared to the previous week, and year-to-date. 17 positive prints, 20 negative prints, And one flat week. Starting on November 9, 2022, 24 positive prints versus 20 negative prints And one flat week. However, the weekly data has been weak since interest rates rose above his 7%, and future data lines will confirm that.
This week is Inflation Week!
This week, the CPI and PPI inflation data reports and all-important unemployment claims data will be released. Yes, it can be a boring week, but inflation statistics are extremely important to the global economy. federal reservethat’s unlikely to happen.
Again, it’s understandable that some people might be frustrated that mortgage rates are still rising even though the rate of increase in inflation is slowing. This is why I have focused on labor market and unemployment claims data in 2023. Unemployment claims data has continued to improve in recent months.
During this time, mortgage rates and the bond market have been trending upward. If unemployment claims had trended the other way, I don’t think this would have happened. In any case, please fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be another crazy week. And unfortunately, now we have the X factor variable. Geopolitical risks have increased this weekend with Israel’s Prime Minister’s declaration of statehood. it was during the war After a massive rocket attack by Palestine. We need to look at what’s going on with that conflict and whether it escalates into a larger geopolitical situation that could impact global markets.
