India-Russia ties under scrutiny as Moscow moves closer to China

The relationship between India and Russia is rock solid as both sides seek to deepen their economic ties. But since Moscow invaded Ukraine, it has also moved closer to Beijing, which raises serious national security concerns for New Delhi.

India’s Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently said the country was ready to resume free trade talks with Russia.

“Our partnership today is subject to attention and comment, not because it has changed, but because it has not.” He saiddescribes this relationship as “the most stable one” in the world.

i want to do it in russia ‘Intensify’ free trade talks with Indiasaid Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov during a visit to Delhi. Manturov is also Moscow’s Minister of Trade.

Despite showing economic cooperation, Indian leaders are “watching closely” that Russia is becoming more isolated and closer to the “corner of China,” according to the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. said Hersh V. Pant, vice president of research and foreign policy at . base think tank.

Russia’s “weak and vulnerable position” and its growing dependence on China for economic and strategic reasons will undoubtedly be worrying for India, he told CNBC.

“It’s getting harder by the day because Beijing and Moscow are getting closer,” Panto said. “The pressure on India is mounting and we certainly don’t want to see that happen.”

New Delhi will try to avoid potential “Russian-Chinese alliances or axis powers” as much as possible, Pant added. “It will have far-reaching consequences and fundamentally change India’s foreign policy and strategic calculations.”

Sriram Chauria, dean of the Jindal School of International Relations in New Delhi, said: “India continues to buy and trade cheap oil from Russia for national reasons, and this FTA is part of that.” said.

However, “the relationship seems to be shifting from a highly valued strategic partnership to a transactional partnership,” he noted, noting that Russia’s “closer China embrace” has become India’s national security threat. He added that it doesn’t bode well for needs.

India, the current G20 presidency, has yet to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

in the latest foreign policy doctrine Announced in late March, Russia said it would “continue to build a particularly privileged strategic partnership” with India.

New Delhi’s longstanding relationship with Moscow dates back to the Cold War era.it remains heavily dependent on the Kremlin for its military equipment. This defense cooperation is very important. Indian tensions along the Himalayan border ORF’s Pant said China was becoming increasingly assertive.

But Russia has failed to do so critical defense equipment Analysts said it had promised India’s military because of the Ukraine war that could strain relations.

March, indian army A parliamentary committee acknowledged in a report that a “massive delivery” from Russia would “not take place”. The report did not mention delivery details.

“Russia has already postponed Delivery of S-400 Chauria of the Jindal School said the pressure of the Ukraine war has delayed India’s deployment of anti-missile missile launch systems.

Historically, India’s dependence on Moscow has been seen as crucial to “helping defuse Chinese aggression” and to maintaining a stable balance of power against Beijing. he added.

At present, India cannot expect Russia to “play the same strategic role for India as it did before the war in Ukraine, because of the technological deterioration of its military forces and the weakening of its position as a result of the war.” he said.

Still, Indian officials continued to make every “last minute effort” to create “some space” in the Russian-Chinese dynamic, and Pant added that “India will use this space to increase its influence over Moscow.” We will be able to ensure that power is not compromised,” he added. .”

However, China is also showing signs of strengthening its relationship with Russia. In March, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, and the two leaders pledged to: deepen their relationship.

Double-sided sticker “Unlimited” partnership Last February, shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine, they agreed to have no “forbidden” areas of cooperation.

Felix K. Chan, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said that if war broke out between the two countries, the “Russian tilt” in favor of Beijing would be “clearly for India. It’s going to be bad,” he said.

Even in the absence of war, “China’s warm relations with Russia could encourage Beijing to pursue stronger interests in South Asia, whether on its disputed Himalayan borders or India’s fringe neighbors.” have a nature.” he wrote in April. “It could also change the balance of power between China and India and increase tensions in the region.”

So India needs to “pick up the pace” by embracing the West, Chan added, “given how the war between Russia and Ukraine has brought China and Russia closer together.”

The ORF’s Punt said the West is aware of the challenges India faces in the Indo-Pacific region, saying, “Given its defense relationship with Russia, it needs Moscow to control Beijing in the short to medium term. is,” he said.

“Perhaps that sensitivity is what the West is working with India, despite their disagreements over Ukraine,” he said, adding that national security concerns are drawing India closer to the United States.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi with US President Joe Biden and Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan 3rd Annual Quad Leader Summit Sydney on May 24th. The Quad is an informal security coalition of four major democracies formed in response to China’s growing power in the Indo-Pacific.

“The U.S. sees China as a major challenger to U.S. global supremacy, but India is a major challenger to U.S. global dominance,” said Rajan Menon, head of the Grand Strategy Program at Defense Priorities, a Washington-based think tank. I don’t see it that way,” he said.

“On the contrary, India now sees itself as a partner against China,” he noted.

“These overlapping strategic interests explain why Washington has reacted less to India’s alliance with Moscow than to the ‘unrestricted’ friendship China has forged with Russia,” Menon said. said.

As for Russia, Punt noted that how to balance this evolving India-China dynamic will be Russia’s biggest challenge.

“It will be interesting to see how this triangle works. “It worked,” he pointed out.

“Today, India is targeted by China’s attempt to establish hegemony in the Indo-Pacific. For Russia and China, the priorities are different than for India,” Panto added. As far as New Delhi is concerned, “Russia’s ability to control India and China will be under the scanner”.