Former President Donald Trump (left) and Vice President Kamal Harris
Reuters
Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to a new poll. The New York Times/Siena College Opinion poll.
The poll found Ms Harris leading Mr Trump among voters in all three states, 50% to 46%, within the poll’s margin of error. Likely to vote is a subset of the total registered voters surveyed.
The poll was conducted Monday through Thursday among 619 Michigan voters and 661 Wisconsin voters. The poll was conducted Tuesday through Friday among 693 Pennsylvania voters.
Looking at responses from all registered voters, the head-to-head results are slightly different: Harris held a 4-point lead in Wisconsin, a 3-point lead in Pennsylvania and trailed Trump by 3 points in Michigan.
The Times/Siena poll is the latest data point tracing the broader realignment that has taken place since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee. Though the polls still show the two candidates in a close race, it’s clear that Harris has fundamentally altered the state of the race from what it was just a month ago.
In the weeks since Biden’s withdrawal, Harris has regained much of the support the Democratic candidate had lost, even taking Trump’s lead in some cases.
in MayEven before the president’s disastrous defeat in the June debate, a Times/Siena poll had Biden tied with Trump in Wisconsin. Biden was trailing the Republican presidential nominee in both Michigan and Pennsylvania.
One result that has remained constant throughout the Democratic Party’s internal realignment is that the economy remains the No. 1 ballot issue among registered voters.
Recession fears came into full force last week after stock markets plummeted on Monday and struggled to claw back gains in the following days. The market decline was driven in part by a weaker-than-expected jobs report that stoked worries that the Federal Reserve’s failure to cut interest rates was putting too much pressure on the economy.
The Times/Siena poll found Trump trailing Harris by nine points on his economic policy.
The Times/Siena poll was conducted during the selection process for Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who was picked after rigorous screening on Tuesday. Walz was little known nationally until just two weeks ago, but he has risen to prominence for his frank style in media interviews, his affable demeanor and his background as a high school teacher before entering politics.
Despite Walz’s strongly progressive policy record, some Democrats saw his rural Midwestern roots as an opportunity to broaden the Democratic coalition.
The Times/Siena poll found that Waltz’s favorability rating among registered voters was 36%, tied with Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, but only 27% of respondents gave Waltz an unfavorable rating, compared with 46% for Vance.
Since launching her presidential campaign, Harris has enjoyed a wave of enthusiasm, including rising approval ratings, record donations, new volunteer sign-ups and arena-filling rallies.
With 87 days until the election and even fewer days until early voting, the Harris campaign has been working to ensure that its early advertising translates into actual votes at the ballot box.
“We are behind in this race, but we have momentum and we know exactly what we’re up against,” Harris said at a rally in Philadelphia on Wednesday that drew more than 12,000 people.
