Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the “When We Vote We Win” campaign rally at the Craig Ranch Amphitheater on October 31, 2024 in North Las Vegas, Nevada.
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Shocking new information shows Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump among likely voters in Iowa, 47% to 44% public opinion poll It was released on Saturday night, just three days before election day.
Harris’ lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 3.4 points, but her lead reflects a 7-point swing in her approval rating among voters since September.
The results of the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll came as a complete surprise to political observers, as no serious analyst predicted that the Democratic candidate would defeat Trump in the state.
Neither candidate has campaigned in the state, which Trump easily won in the past two presidential elections, since the presidential primary ended.
“I don’t think anyone can say they saw this coming,” J. Ann Selzer, president of pollster Selzer & Company, told the Des Moines Register.
“She has clearly risen to a leading position.”
Selzer & Company surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters Monday through Thursday. Selzer’s firm is highly regarded by public opinion polling organizations, and her findings typically hold weight among political strategists.
Harris’ lead in the polls was buoyed by strong support from women voters, especially older and politically independent women.
“Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Register.
The poll found that 3% of respondents supported Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent candidate who stopped campaigning for Trump. Kennedy remains on the Iowa ballot.
The same poll from September showed Trump leading current Vice President Harris by 4 points. As of June, Trump had an 18-point lead over then-presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Trump won the state by 8 points in 2020 and 9 points in 2016.
The Republican campaign released the following statement: memo On Saturday night, he called the poll an “outlier.”
Notes include new emerson college A poll of likely Iowa voters released early Saturday showed Trump leading Harris 53% to 43%.
“The Des Moines Register is a clear outlier poll,” the Trump campaign memo said. “The Emerson College poll released today far more closely reflects the actual state of the Iowa electorate and is It’s much more transparent.”
