Palestinian leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar (center), greets people during a ceremony marking the 35th anniversary of Hamas’ founding in Gaza City on December 14, 2022.
Ali Jadara | Anadolu | Getty Images
Hamas on Tuesday appointed Yahya Sinwar as head of the organisation’s political wing following the assassination of its former political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
This made Shinwar, widely seen as the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks and known for his ruthlessness, the organisation’s most powerful man and its face in international diplomacy.
“The most radical elements of Hamas launched their attack on October 7 and are now officially in power,” Michael Horowitz, geopolitical analyst and head of intelligence at risk management firm Le Becq International, said in a post on X.
The Middle East is on edge following the July 31 murder of Haniya in Iran, which Iran and Hamas have blamed on Israel. While Israel has remained silent on the matter, Iran has vowed some form of retaliatory attack against the Jewish state.
Meanwhile, Haniyeh’s killing has given Hamas an even more radical leader and Palestinian militants a potentially ominous twist for ceasefire talks aimed at ending the war and freeing Israeli hostages still being held in Gaza.
Qatar-based Haniyeh served as Hamas’ chief negotiator in ceasefire talks with Israel and is seen as more pragmatic and supportive of the agreement. Negotiations have been going on fruitlessly for months, but Gaza-based Sinwar, who is said to have the final say on major decisions for Hamas, has often stalled or cut off communication during the talks.
“Sinwar’s appointment as head of Hamas, despite being based in Gaza, signals a significantly harder line for the movement, particularly with regard to ceasefire negotiations,” Victor Tricaut, a senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, told CNBC.
The Palestinian leader “already had a very important voice in negotiations with Israel, but the difference now is that there will no longer be the relatively pragmatic voice of Ismail Haniyeh to balance Sinwar’s uncompromising extremist views.”
Still, his nomination is unlikely to change the trajectory of the ground war in Gaza because killing him remains Israel’s top priority, Trico said. But it does deal a blow to efforts to achieve a lasting halt to fighting and de-escalation in the region. “Increased instability in the region is likely to continue in the coming months,” the analyst said.
A lifelong struggle
Sinwar, 61, was born in a refugee camp in Gaza and spent at least 22 years of his adult life in Israeli prisons. He was sentenced to life in 1989 for orchestrating the killings of two Israeli soldiers and four Palestinians he believed to be Israeli collaborators, but he had already made a name for himself as the “Butcher of Khan Yunis” for hunting down Palestinians suspected of collaborating with Israel.
However, he was released early in a highly controversial prisoner swap in 2011 in which more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners were exchanged for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who had been abducted by Hamas five years earlier.
In a later interview, Sinwar said he spent his time in prison learning to speak, read and write Hebrew and trying to understand the mind and behaviour of his Israeli captives. He was designated a terrorist by the US government in 2015 and elected leader of Hamas in 2017.
Yahya Sinwar hosted a meeting with leaders of various Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City on April 13, 2022.
Adele Hana | AP
International Criminal Court in May He said he was filing an application for an arrest warrant. The court arrested Sinwar and Haniya on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity, and also sought arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Galant on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Sinwar’s elevation to Hamas’ top position, and the resulting merging of the group’s political and military wings, also complicates “after” planning in Gaza, for which the Israeli government has not presented a plan.
This choice will likely be “neutralizing” [Hamas’] “Its legitimacy on the international stage is being lost,” Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and regional analyst, said in an email.
“In many ways, the separation of the military and political wings has given Hamas the space to negotiate a better hostage solution with Israel and secure its future in a future Palestinian government after the current war,” he said. “This move will challenge that tactic.”
Sinwar, a prime target for the Israeli military, has survived assassination attempts over the years and is believed to have spent much of the current war hiding out in Gaza’s complex network of tunnels.
That’s why Hamas’ decision to appoint Sinwar to the top post is risky, Ghanem Nusseibeh said, adding that Hamas is “clearly betting on an invisible leader.”
“But it’s even worse for Israel and the mediators,” said Nusseibeh, a regional commentator and president of the London-based Muslims Against Anti-Semitism. “Negotiating with the most radical parts of Hamas, which are also invisible, will be difficult.”
