I love the draft. I devour all the draft-related content. I read JD Cameron’s Consensus Big Board. I’m watching episodes of Destination: The Show that feature draft conversations.
It probably won’t surprise anyone reading this, but what might surprise you is that I love watching almost the entire draft. I don’t watch much college football, and my favorite teams are fantasy teams, other than being a Minnesota Vikings fan, but I watch all seven rounds of the NFL Draft.
I don’t watch college basketball and I rarely watch the NBA, but I do watch the second round of the NBA draft.
I don’t watch the NHL. I don’t watch college hockey. I don’t watch the USHL, and I certainly don’t watch any European leagues. But I do like to follow the NHL draft. Maybe it’s because three high school players from my town have been drafted in the last three NHL drafts. I had two kids from my school that I thought might be drafted in 2024. Plus, it’s fun to watch Minnesotans get drafted.
I’m sure I also retweeted the Lynx’s WNBA picks and the Minnesota PWHL team’s draft picks, but I didn’t watch either!
I don’t know what it is. I think a big part is seeing the excitement and enthusiasm of the players hearing their name and seeing their big dreams come true. It’s also always so exciting to see the players’ families around, the hugs, the tears, being interviewed.
But the baseball draft is, of course, my favorite. I started blogging for 20 years in May, and while I’ve always enjoyed following the minor leagues and prospects, I’ve also always loved following the draft. Babe Ruth I was at a baseball game, wearing those ugly yellow and brown uniforms, when I heard the Twins had drafted Chuck Knoblock, a shortstop out of Texas A&M. He quickly became one of my favorite players and soon made the Twins’ 1991 Opening Day roster and helped them win their first World Series.
In 1990, everyone was talking about Todd Van Poppel. He fell in the draft because of money and because he’d said he wouldn’t play for a bad team like the Atlanta Braves. I think Atlanta did pretty well with their Larry Jones selection. The Twins drafted Todd Ritchie, a right-handed high school pitcher from Texas, just like Van Poppel. In fact, when they played against each other, Ritchie was the winner.
The Twins have produced some very strong first-round draft picks over the past few decades, with Joe Mauer clearly at the top of that list.
Twins first-round pick rankings by bWAR (Twins-signed players only):
1.) Joe Mauer (2001): 55.2
2.) Torii Hunter (1993): 50.7
3.) Chuck Knobloch (1989): 44.6
4.) Jay Bell (1984): 37.1
5.) Dennard Span (2002): 27.9
6.) Byron Buxton (2012): 23.4
7.) Michael Cuddyer (1997): 17.8
8.) Kyle Gibson (2009): 15.8
9.) Jose Berrios (2012): 14.7
10.) Aaron Hicks (2008): 13.5
Other successful picks include Matt Garza, Todd Walker, Mark Redman, and Ben Revere. Glenn Perkins was the 22nd overall pick in the 2004 draft. He played in the All-Star Game three times. Trevor Plouff had a great, solid career with the Twins.
Of course, there are a few players still in the early stages of their careers, including Royce Lewis, Brent Rooker, Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff, Brooks Lee and Trevor Larnach, who have contributed. Rooker made the 2023 All-Star Game and is still playing for Oakland this year.
The great thing about the draft is that scouting isn’t a science. Scouts are great. Often they follow players and take notes when they’re 15-16 years old, then find out if they’ll be drafted at 18 or 21-22. They build relationships with players, families, and coaches. They’ve been through it all, they’ve driven miles on dark, desolate roads in the middle of nowhere, they’ve dealt with city traffic.
Think about it: In 60-plus years of MLB drafts, only four first-overall picks have been inducted into the Hall of Fame. Next Sunday, Joe Mauer will join Harold Baines, Chipper Jones and Ken Griffey Jr. Remember when the Padres selected Matt Bush first overall and Justin Verlander second? Danny Goodwin was a two-time top pick, and you have to be pretty well-versed in baseball history to know his name.
The Twins selected Byron Buxton (23.4 bWAR) and Adam Johnson (-1.1 bWAR) with the second overall pick, Dave McCarty (-2.1 bWAR) and Willie Banks (1.0 bWAR) with the third overall pick, Brian Oelkers (-0.9 bWAR) and Cole Stewart (0.2 bWAR) with the fourth overall pick.
Cole Stewart was a great quarterback in high school and went to Texas Tech on a full scholarship to play football. But he also had a great arm. It wouldn’t have been a stretch for the Twins to take him with the fourth pick. So should the Twins avoid high school star quarterbacks? They could end up with a career like Stewart’s (which, by the way, included two seasons in the big leagues). They could end up with Bubba Starling, who got a few at-bats with the Royals. Or they could end up with a Hall of Famer like Joe Mauer.
Twins fans are excited about last year’s top pick, Walker Jenkins, who was selected fifth overall. The only other times the Twins had a first overall pick were Nick Gordon in 2014 and B.J. Gerbe in 1999.
If you’re following the MLB Draft (which starts tonight and runs through Tuesday afternoon), you’ll want to bookmark J.D. Cameron’s Consensus Big Board, where he creates mini-profiles of the top 187 players available in the draft (consolidating many of the industry’s most reliable sources).
But even the “industry” doesn’t always get it right. It’s really hard to make it to the big leagues, much less establish yourself. A lot of different things can happen.
Think back to the 2018 MLB Draft. The Minnesota Twins selected UNCW catcher Ryan Jeffers with the 59th overall pick. When MLB Network commentators tried to talk about the pick, they acknowledged that Jeffers wasn’t on most of the top 200 draft prospects. As far as I can remember, there was one list of top 500 draft prospects that he wasn’t on. Correct me if I’m wrong.
But the Twins really loved him. His bat, his approach, his power potential. His smarts. But they also saw potential in him defensively that most in the industry didn’t see. He was ranked way up in the Twins’ standings. They were totally confident in him taking the backstop position.
That doesn’t mean their predictions are always right, though — perhaps some of their other picks were seen as off-base and didn’t pan out.
If we were to redraft the 2018 draft based on what we know now, where would Jeffers be selected? A catcher who is good enough to be a catcher and can hit? Below is the ranking of all players selected and signed in the 2018 draft by bWAR (fWAR in parentheses):
2018 Draft Classes (by bWAR) (through Friday’s games):
- Nico Horner (24) – 13.0 (12.9)
- Steven Kwan (163) – 12.5 (11.9)
- Jeremy Peña (102) – 10.9 (7.8)
- Logan Gilbert (14) – 9.8 (10.7)
- Tarik Skubal (255) – 9.5 (10.2)
- Cal Lowry (90) – 9.2 (10.7)
- Shane McClanahan (31) – 8.7 (7.9)
- Brady Singer (18) – 8.4 (9.4)
- Ryan Jeffers (59) – 7.2 (6.8)
- Brendan Donovan (213) – 7.2 (4.9)
- Jonathan India (5) – 6.8 (7.5)
- Lars Nortebar (243) – 6.7 (7.3)
- Joe Ryan (210) – 6.1 (7.5)
- Kyle Bradish (121) – 6.1 (5.8)
- Drew Rasmussen (185) – 6.0 (5.7)
- Jarren Duran (220) – 6.0 (5.4)
- Brice Turan (21) – 5.7 (2.3)
The Twins will draft four of their top 70 picks tonight, and we’ll find out all we can about each one, root for them, and wish them the best. Will all four make it to the big leagues? How many will get five (or 10?) years of tenure? Will injuries be a factor?
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m excited to find out!
Twins don’t need hoodies
Of note, in the 2023 draft, the Twins selected first baseman/outfielder Sam Parker out of a Georgia high school. He didn’t sign, instead going to Chipola. A recent rule change brought back draft-and-follow. In other words, the Twins could have let him go to Chipola and tried to work out a deal to bring him to the team before the 2024 draft. But the Twins and Parker couldn’t come to an agreement, so he’ll remain in college. Because he attended a two-year school, he will still be draft eligible this year.
About Helium
Recently, the Twins released their 2019 top draft pick, Keoni Cavaco. He was the 13th overall pick in that draft. He struggled that summer and lost a complete development season in 2020. Some might say he was a “helium pick” that year. Simply put, he was obviously not a first-round pick, but he developed strong in his senior year and moved up the draft board later on. So should the Twins never draft a “helium” player again? I sincerely hope that no organization has that mindset. That’s like saying the Twins should never sign a Japanese player again because Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn’t work out. That’s a ridiculous mindset, and one person’s results have nothing to do with another person’s results.
What can we expect with the 21st pick?
Last year, the Cardinals had the 21st overall pick. They selected outfielder Chase Davis out of Arizona. A year before that, the Mariners selected infielder Cole Young with the 21st pick. He played in Saturday’s Futures Game. The Cubs selected left-hander Jordan Wicks out of Kansas State in 2021, who will debut in 2023. Jordan Walker was the Cardinals’ 21st overall pick in the 2020 draft. In 2019, the Braves selected infielder Braden Shoemake out of Texas A&M. The Brewers selected high school shortstop Bryce Turan with the 21st pick in 2018. That same Brewers player, DL Hall, was the Orioles’ 21st overall pick in 2017.
Okay, let’s not go through all the players who were selected with the 21st overall pick. The Twins’ other picks with the 21st overall pick were Alex Wimmers in 2010 and Matt Moses in 2003. Wimmers was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year in 2010. He struggled with injuries and control issues in the minor leagues, limiting his opportunities in the Twins’ relief corps. After Moses was selected and underwent a more thorough physical, it was discovered he had a hole in his heart. It was repaired through surgery, but Moses never made it to the major leagues.
The Twins drafted Georgia Tech catcher Jason Varitek 21st overall in the 1993 draft, but he didn’t sign. Remember shortstop Dale Soderholm from Miami’s Coral Park High School? The Twins drafted him 21st overall in 1971.
Other familiar names selected with the 21st pick include Rick Sutcliffe, Atlee Hammaker, Todd Worrell, Jake Westbrook, Gorman Thomas and Ian Kennedy. Other 21st picks the Twins should remember include Jason Tyner (1998, Mets) and Booh Bonser (2000, Giants). Edina High School’s Tom Nevers was the 21st overall pick by the Astros in 1990.
Generally speaking, you’re unlikely to get a “sure thing” player at 21st overall in the draft, but that doesn’t mean you can’t or won’t get one: There will be high school players who miss out on a pick hoping to get bought out of their college commitments, and there will also be college hitters who might have some solid weapons.
