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Polls are a useful, if somewhat sluggish, tool in politics, and Democrats took no small comfort this weekend with an ABC/Ipsos poll showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by four points nationally.
But the important thing about this poll isn’t the margin. After all, Rasmussen has Trump ahead by two points. Who knows which is right? The important thing is that on August 13, this same ABC poll also showed Harris leading by four points. In other words, Harris’ momentum didn’t just disappear — it’s been gone for a while.
As 2024 election enters final stretch, Harris vs. Trump race remains within margin of error
I first felt the air escaping from Harris’ balloon a little over two weeks ago in San Francisco, where she was likely to be seen as a local hero, but questions were already brewing from almost everyone I met about what she would stand for and what she would do if elected president.
A split image shows former President Trump and Vice President Harris standing side by side. (Getty Images)
We’ve all seen the viral videos, including from the Democratic National Convention, of delegates asked what their favorite Harris policy is, staring off into the distance searching for an answer that doesn’t exist, as if they were being asked to conjure up an ancient Greek vocabulary.
I’ve seen this expression countless times. In Republican states and Democratic states, suburbs and cities and small towns, even many people who promise to vote for the vice president admit that it’s like buying a political scratch-off ticket: They’re not sure what they’re going to get.
Now, don’t get me wrong: From the time Nancy Pelosi shoved President Joe Biden face-first off the stage until just before Democrats gathered in Chicago, the momentum was there, the atmosphere was real, and Harris’ approval ratings were rising.
Democrats I spoke to also sensed a certain air of doom surrounding Grandpa Joe, but airs are strange and tend to fade quickly. Indeed, it was Republicans who were convinced that the image of a bloody, defiant Trump had already won them the election, right after Trump survived the assassination attempt.
After surviving an assassination attempt in July, Trump famously pumped his fist in the air and yelled “fight!” at the crowd. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
But there’s no need to rush.
So why did the wheels come off on Harris’ Vibebus just as the reckless act was just getting started? There are several failings to be noted, including his stubborn and bizarre refusal to answer questions or be interviewed.
This is where the slowness of the polls comes in. For two weeks, the liberal media told me that Harris didn’t need to be interviewed. They promised me that her approval ratings were soaring. But they weren’t.
And at that time, constituents I spoke to, almost without exception, said she needed to start answering the questions. The sponge bath she and Gov. Tim Walz received on CNN last week today certainly seems too little, too late.
A bigger, related problem for Harris is that she lacks the political talent that allows candidates to effortlessly juggle three interviews a day and take advantage of unscripted moments that might work to their advantage.
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Harris has none of these skills, and she never needed to. Without political savvy and first-rate instincts, you don’t win a competitive presidential primary because you’ll lose to better candidates, but her lack of battleground experience has hurt her because she never had to face other candidates.
As the first orange leaves fall to the ground this week, we are back to where we were before Joe Biden’s inability to assume the presidency was highlighted in giant neon signs: the race is 50-50, the electorate is as divided as ever, and we’re heading into the fourth quarter with it essentially tied.
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Donald Trump and J.D. Vance have blunted Harris’s temporary surge in popularity, but that means they’ll continue to be in the public eye as much as possible, so don’t be surprised if you see either of them wielding giant scissors at the grand opening of a Dairy Queen.
Meanwhile, Harris and Walz need second acts. It won’t be enough for Kamala to explain how to make collard greens or for Tim to eat pork chops on a skewer at the state fair. American voters have questions. Lots of questions. But do these inexperienced Democratic candidates have any answers? We’ll find out soon.
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