According to the United Nations, plastic production has soared from 2 million tons in 1950 to about 2 million tons. 400 million people in 2024. This number is expected to triple by 2060. Currently, only 10 percent of this plastic is recycled and reused. The remainder remains in our environment for centuries, contaminating the earth from the oceans to the mountains, contaminating the food chain and the human body, and risking organ and brain damage.
We will start eliminating plastic pollution in 2025. Since 2022, UN policymakers representing more than 170 countries have been negotiating a legally binding agreement. global plastic treaty We address the entire plastic lifecycle, from design to production to disposal. This treaty is 1987 Montreal Protocolwhich ultimately led to the phasing out of CFCs, chemicals that cause ozone layer depletion. Therefore, despite the opposition, it can be equally successful.
The treaty was expected to be finalized by the fifth and final session to be held in Busan, South Korea, at the end of November 2024. So far, perhaps unsurprisingly, the negotiations have been polarized. At the time of writing, the draft treaty includes two options regarding the overall goal. The first is more ambitious and aims to “end plastic pollution.” Meanwhile, the second one aims to “protect human health and the environment from plastic pollution.”
The first option is High ambition coalition to end plastic pollutionled by Northern Europe but also includes countries such as Rwanda and Peru. Option 2 is preferred by major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, which want to focus the discussion on plastic recycling and waste management rather than production. In August 2024, the United States, which is also a major producer of plastics and oil, announced a surprising policy shift, pledging to also support limits on plastic production. Given America’s influence, this new position will have implications for the treaty.
Agreeing to option 1 would take us down a path very similar to that taken by the Montreal Protocol. At present, the treaty is unlikely to set specific binding targets for phasing out plastic production, but it could set ambitious goals to end plastic pollution. no doubt. On the other hand, option 2 (“protect human health and the environment”) is a very vague goal. One reason for this is that the threshold for human health effects is actually not precisely known and may not be known for some time. For a very long time.
Either way, these two options are a step forward. Both provide the direction the plastics industry needs to develop better technology. For example, Option 1 is the use of alternatives, such as fully biodegradable and compostable materials, to eventually replace plastics (particularly single-use plastics such as shopping bags and plastic packaging, which account for 35% of today’s plastic usage). This will encourage companies to develop new products. Option 2 could encourage industry to develop more efficient ways to reduce waste streams, such as improving recycling processes.
This technology direction is perhaps the most important aspect of this treaty. For example, the original 1987 Montreal Protocol set very conservative phase-down targets for CFC production reductions of 20 percent by 1994 and 50 percent by 1998. At the time, these were considered too slow for the required goals. to deal with the problem. Importantly, however, the Protocol also explicitly states that such goals will be reconsidered as new scientific and alternative technologies become available. This has put pressure on the industry to develop technological solutions as companies compete to develop better products. Eventually, alternatives such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which can be used for refrigeration with far less impact on the ozone layer, were developed much faster than expected, and just three years later countries met again to phase out HFCs. It was agreed that it would be abolished. Complete use of CFCs by 2000.
In 2025, the Global Plastics Treaty will send a clear message to the plastics industry that it needs to change the way it does business. It will be the beginning of the end for plastic.
