Despite China’s stagnant growth, Xi Jinping seems arrogantly confident that he has the right roadmap to surpass his Western rivals.
China’s economy is entering a slowing gear. The population is decreasing and aging is progressing. Its rival, the United States, has a lead in artificial intelligence. Mr. Xi’s statement several years ago that “the East is rising and the West is declining,” meaning that America’s national power was shrinking while his own country was still developing, was not complete arrogance. However, it seems too early now.
problems lead to growth speak abroad That means China may reach its peak before becoming a full-fledged superpower. But Mr. Xi has succumbed to claims that his policies, characterized by broad party control and state-led industrial investment in new sectors such as electric cars and semiconductors, can ensure China’s rise. Apparently not.
In a show of confidence, the government announced last week that China’s economy is expected to grow by about 5% this year, about the same pace as last year, according to official figures. And Mr. Xi emphasized his ambitions for a new phase of industrial growth through innovation, as if the setbacks of the past year or two were an anomaly.
“Facing a technological revolution and industrial transformation, we must seize the opportunity.” he told the representatives At China’s annual legislative conference held in Beijing, aired on tv praised him passionately.
he later told another group China “must win the battle over key core technologies,” he told the Legislative Council. told the People’s Liberation Army Executives called for building “strategic capabilities in emerging areas,” including artificial intelligence, cyber operations and space technology, he said.
Mr. Xi’s bullishness may be partly for show. Chinese leaders, like politicians everywhere, are loath to admit mistakes. And some officials privately acknowledge that, at least for now, the economic downturn is curbing China’s ambition and bravado.
ryan hassDirector of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution I visited China late last year“Even compared to a year ago, the Chinese are a little more disciplined. The trajectory for the Chinese economy to overtake the American economy in the next few years is even further out.”
Still, Mr. Xi’s determination to pursue his long-term ambitions appears to be more than just a facade. “Mr. Xi and his team still believe that time and momentum is on China’s side,” said Hass, a former director of China affairs at the U.S. National Security Council. He added that it is difficult to imagine “a major recalibration of China’s overall trajectory now that Mr. Xi is in power.”
Since taking office in 2012, Mr. Xi has tightened the Communist Party’s control over Chinese society. He has expanded state control of the economy, expanded the security apparatus to eliminate potential challenges to party rule, and clashed with Washington over technology, Taiwan and other disputes.
For Mr. Xi’s critics, his centralized and heavy-handed tendencies are part of China’s problem. He did not create China’s dangerous reliance on the real estate market for growth, and has worked to end it. But many economists say he has been too heavy-handed and has stifled business and innovation. Critics say Mr. Xi is unnecessarily antagonizing Western governments, restricting access to technology and encouraging them to deepen security ties with the United States.
Since last year, the Chinese government has been working to ease these tensions. Measures are being taken to restore confidence in private companies. Mr. Xi has also sought to ease tensions with the United States and other countries.
This moderate stance is reflected in the fact that Mr. Xi said,tactical flexibility” he expects from Chinese officials in difficult times. However, Xi said that even with mitigation measures, officials must stick to his long-term goals.him and his loyal subordinate It has become defend his policies In speeches and editorial, suggests that doubters are short-sighted.Chinese officials and academics are also stepping up efforts. condemnation of the west Analysts predict that China is facing an era of decline.
Mr. Xi stressed that even as China faces slowing growth, economic and security priorities need to be addressed in tandem. Mr. Xi is also betting that investments in manufacturing and technology can expand industries such as new clean energy and electric vehicles, leading to new “high-quality” growth.
“The Chinese leadership’s mantra seems to be that, while we won’t grow as fast as we used to, we will gain more influence over our trading partners by controlling important parts of the global economy,” Michael said. Beckley said. Associate Professor at Tufts University. China claims that A “peak country” is a country whose economic growth has slowed but has not yet stopped.
Some economists argue that China’s advances in these specific industries will not be enough to offset declining consumer confidence and debt burdens on developers and local governments. China’s broader fate depends largely on whether Mr. Xi’s technology bet pays off.
“They see technology as the solution to every problem they face: economic, environmental, demographic, social, etc.,” he said. Nadège Laurent, a researcher at the National Asian Research Bureau who studies China’s strategic thinking. “If they can’t make enough progress in this area, it’s going to be very difficult for them.”
Scholars at home and abroad who hope China will follow a more liberal path often look back to history for examples of party leaders making bold reforms to ease tensions at home and abroad.
This is the first time China has found itself in such a painful situation since the crackdown on pro-democracy protesters on June 4, 1989. In response to the bloodshed, Western countries imposed sanctions against China, further deepening the economic shock. But within a few years, then-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping sought to mend relations with Washington and other capitals, sparking market changes that restored growth and brought back Western investors.
But now China faces deeper hostility from other powers. Zu Fengsaid a prominent foreign policy scholar at Nanjing University in eastern China in an interview. For example, a surge in China’s electric vehicle exports, which benefit from large government subsidies, could reignite trade tensions as the United States, Japan and Europe worry about the loss of jobs and industrial power. be.
Economic and diplomatic tensions “pose China’s most serious challenges” in decades, Professor Zhu said.
Still, Chinese leaders seem to believe that whatever their problems, their Western rivals will eventually face even worse problems that will humble and fracture them.
Recent reports from Chinese affiliated laboratories ruling party, army and Ministry of National Security It points out the hateful polarization in the United States ahead of the next election. No matter who wins, Chinese analysts argue thatAmerican power is likely to continue to suffer from political dysfunction.
Chinese scholars are also focusing on the fault lines in the West over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Relations between the Chinese government and the United States and European governments have become severely strained over Mr. Xi’s partnership with President Vladimir V. Putin. But as the war enters its third year, the strain of aiding Ukraine has deepened rifts and “fatigue” between the two countries. Europe.
“US foreign intervention cannot address everything the US is trying to do,” said Chen Xianyang, a researcher at the China Institute of Modern International Relations in Beijing, part of the Ministry of State Security. I wrote it last year. “China can exploit contradictions and use them to its own advantage.”