Since the Great Financial Crisis, the narrative has been that the U.S. economy is the cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry basket.
Yes, our economic recovery was slow, but the rest of the world was in turmoil.
The European Union was disintegrating. Emerging markets were in turmoil. Although China seemed to be fighting for our economic throne, it never made any serious attempts to oust its mighty king.
The United States has also led the way out of the pandemic, but this time we’re not just winning just because other countries are losing.
Economically speaking, the United States dominates the rest of the world.
Axios We showed economic growth in 2023 and forecasts for 2024.
The United States is growing faster than its closest competitors in 2023 and should see similar growth this year.
goldman sachs The breakdown of economic size by nominal GDP is as follows:
China is looming, and the fact that China has 1.4 billion people compared to our population of 330 million makes the size of our economy even more impressive.
China is close in terms of GDP, but in terms of the size of the stock and bond markets, every other country is the same.
The United States has many advantages over other countries in the world, including a global reserve currency, friendly neighbors to the north and south, abundant natural resources, military power, and two ocean coastlines.
But the sheer scale, breadth and liquidity of our financial markets offers great advantages when it comes to commerce, innovation, entrepreneurship and wealth building.
In some ways, it is surprising that, despite widespread globalization, the United States has only widened its lead in terms of financial market capitalization.
We looked at the Vanguard Total World Stock Market Index Fund’s largest holdings.21 of the top 25 holdings are based in the US All 13 of the largest companies in the index are based in the US1
U.S. stocks account for over 60% of global indexes.
Putting it all together is Goldman’s God Bless America Venn Diagram.
Furthermore, Japan has the most favorable demographic trends among the developed countries in the world.
China faces major problems in this regard.
One of the most surprising leadership developments in the United States is in energy.
This comes from a recent article washington post:
Production of nearly every major energy source, including oil, natural gas, and renewable energy, has recently reached record highs. In fact, the production of each has approximately doubled since his 2000.
Considering this in perspective, The United States produces more oil than any other country in history.
I think that’s a very good thing. Look at these all-time highs.
I don’t want to jump into a topic here, but we are currently in a state where we are basically energy independent, or close to it.
Is there something wrong with this country? Of course I will. And we always will be.
I could list all the problems we have, but you already know them because you are constantly exposed to negativity on the news, on the internet, and on social media every day.
These days, everyone focuses on the negative things. That’s because negativity causes a reaction.
But if we take a step back from the constant barrage of pessimism, we see that there is a lot of good happening in the United States.
It’s a shame that so many people aren’t seeing the positives right now.
It is said that the winners write the history books.
Looking at the growth of U.S. economic output and financial markets over the past 100 years or so, some point to survivorship bias.
I cannot guarantee the same level of output from here.
But I’m pretty confident that America will be one of the authors of the history books in the future.
I remain bullish about my country.
References:
Stop betting against America
1Taiwan Semiconductor was ranked 14th, making it the largest foreign-affiliated company in the global index.