It feels like the Bucks are in a playoff game week in and week out these days, as the Falcons have the tiebreaker in the NFC South race. That’s because if Tampa Bay loses at this point, there’s a chance Atlanta could tie for the standings if they win, in which case a tiebreaker would take over the lead from the three-time division champion. So what happens in week 16?
Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. – Photo courtesy of USA Today
More to come this weekend as the Falcons host the 2-12 Giants and head off to a Sunday Night Football contest against the Cowboys, who are 6-8 and riding high with three wins. There is no doubt that it was an advantageous matchup. The last four games. If Todd Bowles and his team can get through Sunday with the NFC South lead, they could set up a Week 17 win over the Panthers and a 10-5 Falcons loss to the Commanders. You can do it. Winning the division for 4 consecutive years.
The Falcons made a major change this week ahead of their Week 16 home game against the 2-12 Giants, benching veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins in place of No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. Ta. Atlanta had an easy time against New York, winning 34-7.
The rookie quarterback completed 18-of-27 for 202 yards and one interception, letting Bijan Robinson and the Falcons’ defense do the job. Robinson had 22 carries for 94 yards and two touchdowns, and the defense also contributed with two pick-sixes, keeping the Giants scoreless until 44:53 of the game.
Atlanta’s win in Sunday’s 1:00 slot leaves Tampa Bay heading into Sunday Night Football’s game against Dallas knowing they need a win to maintain first place in the NFC South heading into Christmas. It gave me pressure. But instead of preserving the winning streak, the Bucks sustained a primetime losing streak and played a sloppy game overall before a second-half comeback attempt fell short. We lost 26-24.
Tampa Bay’s defense allowed too many explosive plays and the offense was too careless with the football, resulting in another disappointing result under the bright lights of prime time.
The Falcons are now back on top of the NFC South and in control. their With only two weeks left in the regular season, I was wondering about my own playoff fate.
Bucks HC Todd Bowles – Photo by Jeffrey Jones/PR
Here’s how it’s updated: NFC South Standings Until week 16:
Atlanta Falcons 8-7 (4-1 in NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-7 (2-2 in NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-9 (2-3 in NFC South)*
Carolina Panthers 4-11 (1-3 in NFC South)
*Saints still play Packers on Monday Night Football
The Falcons can win the division next Sunday if the Bucs lose to the Panthers and continue to beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. But if Tampa Bay can get back on track and beat Carolina early Sunday, it will put similar pressure on Atlanta heading into their primetime matchup, essentially a reversal of what happened this week. Probably.
The simple fact is the Bucs are going to need some help over the next two weeks if they are to win their fourth straight district title. First of all, we need to take care of ourselves and beat the bottom or third-place team in the division at home. If they can do that, the Falcons would need to lose one of their remaining two games to beat the South and make a playoff game.
Here’s the rest of the schedule for the top two teams in the NFC South:
Week 17: Bucks – vs. Panthers (4-11). Falcons – Commanders (10-5)
Week 18: Bucks – vs. Saints (5-9). Falcons – vs. Panthers (4-11)
Tampa Bay’s best hope may come next week. Hopefully they can do better than their last game against Carolina and win that game to improve to 9-7. Washington was on a roll after defeating the Eagles on Sunday, when Jayden Daniels threw a late touchdown pass to stop the Birds from clinching the NFC East championship. Additionally, the Commanders each have playoff ambitions, as a win against the Falcons next Sunday will clinch a playoff berth.
A Bucks win followed by a Commanders win would quickly put Todd Bowles’ team back in first place, setting up a Week 18 win scenario.
Bucks current position in the NFC playoff picture
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photo by Jeffrey Jones/PR
Tampa Bay’s best path to the playoffs remains through the NFC South, but there’s also a narrow path to the NFC wild card race. Next week’s game between the Commanders and the Falcons is doubly important in that regard, but more on that later.
First, let’s take a look at the rest of the NFC playoffs.
Just one week after the NFC’s No. 1 seed race resumed with the Lions losing to the Bills, the tide has turned. The Lions easily handled the Bears, winning 34-17 to get back on track and maintain their lead. With 1:00 remaining, the Eagles were down 22-6 in the fourth quarter and lost to the Commanders, 36-33.
This not only cost Philadelphia a chance to win the NFC East, but also dropped Nick Sirianni’s team to one game behind Detroit in the race for the No. 1 seed.
Also in the 1:00 period, the Rams defeated the Jets 19-9 to maintain first place in the NFC West. They also received assistance at both the 1 a.m. and 4 p.m. First the Cardinals lost to the Panthers 36-30 in overtime, then the Seahawks lost to the Vikings 27-24 and the 49ers lost to the Dolphins 29-17. Los Angeles played a full game against Seattle, and both Arizona and San Francisco were eliminated from contention for the championship.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson – Photo courtesy of USA Today
With the win over the Seahawks, the Vikings moved into lockstep with the Lions in the race for the NFC North crown and the NFC No. 1 seed. When they face the Lions in Week 18, they technically control their own destiny for the rest of the game.
For now, Minnesota remains the No. 5 seed, and the current situation will likely see Sam Darnold and co head to Atlanta to face Michael Penix Jr.’s Falcons in Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Packers still hold the No. 6 seed, but their Week 16 game won’t be played until Monday night when they host the Saints. A win would keep the second wildcard spot, while a loss would allow the commander to return to that spot. As things stand now, the No. 6 seed will likely head west to face Matthew Stafford’s Rams in Super Wild Card weekend.
Now, let’s go back to the commander. Jaden Daniels scored a five-touchdown day and fought back late to beat the Eagles, earn their 10th win of the season and prevent Philadelphia from winning the NFC East for now. Washington currently holds a two-game lead over the next wild-card contender in playoff contention. Dan Quinn’s team can clinch a playoff berth with a win against the Falcons next week, but that could be good or bad for the Bucks.
As previously discussed, a Washington win over Atlanta and a Tampa Bay win over Carolina would put Tampa Bay back in position to win the NFC South. However, Washington’s victory eliminates Tampa Bay from wild-card contention, leaving the division as its only option. Conversely, a Bucks win and a Falcons win over the Commanders would hurt the Bucks’ chances in the division, but it would also put the No. 7 seed back on the table heading into Week 18.
Because in that scenario, if Tampa Bay beats New Orleans and Washington loses to Dallas on the final weekend of the season, both the Bucks and Commanders would be 10-7. The Bucks won when the teams met in Week 1, winning the head-to-head tiebreaker and sneaking into the playoffs as the NFC’s last wild-card team.
Fox Sports’ Greg Orman put it succinctly:
(Even if the Falcons lose to the Panthers in Week 18, it will still be effective)
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 23, 2024
Bucks WR Mike Evans – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
Here’s a complete look at the NFC playoffs through Week 16.
1. Lions – 13-2 (NFC North Leader)
2. Eagles – 12-3 (1st NFC East)
3. Rams – 9-6 (first in NFC West)
4. Falcons – 8-7 (NFC South leader)
5. Vikings – 13-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 10-4 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 10-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–Hunting——–
8. Bucks – 8-7
9. Seahawks – 8-7
*The Packers still have a matchup against the Saints on Monday Night Football
NFL.com The Bucks currently have a 51% chance of making the playoffs.
The Bucks have a lot of work to do as they need to beat the Panthers and Saints to finish at 10-7. There are two routes from there, as Orman outlined.
- Falcons lose one game remaining (Bucs would win NFC South)
- Managers lose their last two games (Bucs would earn the NFC No. 7 seed)
Tampa Bay returns home Sunday to host Carolina 4-11 with kickoff set for 1 p.m. ET.
