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Pewter Report’s Scott Reynolds answers your questions. @PewterReport Twitter accounts are added to the Bucs Mailbag weekly. Submit your questions to the Bucs Mailbag weekly via Twitter using the hashtag #PRMailbag. Here are the Bucks questions we chose to answer in this week’s issue.
Question: Do you think Antwan Winfield Jr. has a chance to win Defensive Player of the Year?
Bucks FS Antwaun Winfield Jr. and Falcons QB Desmond Ridder – Photo courtesy of USA Today
answer: In the history of the AP Defensive Player of the Year, which began in 1971, the safeties to have won the award were Miami strong safety Dick Anderson (1973) and Seattle strong safety Kenny Easley (1973). (1984), and only five, including Free of Baltimore. Safety Ed Reed (2004), Indianapolis Strong Safety Bob Sanders (2007), and Pittsburgh Strong Safety Troy Polamalu (2010). Reid was the only true free safety.
DPOTY honors are too often given to linebackers and defensive linemen, usually pass rushers, like San Francisco’s Nick Bosa last year and Pittsburgh’s TJ Watt the year before. Former Houston defensive end JJ Watt has won the award three times (2012, 2014, 2015), as has Los Angeles defensive tackle Aaron Donald (2017, 2018, 2020).
The most recent safety to win was Polamalu in 2010, so in my opinion it would take a big upset for Bucs free safety Antwon Winfield Jr. to win.
Comparing Winfield’s numbers to previous DPOTY winners who played safety:
Dick Anderson: 8INT, 2TD
Kenny Easley: 10 INT, 2 TD, FR
Ed Reed: 78 tackles, 6 TFL, 17 PBU, 9 INT, 3 FF, 2 FR, 2 TD
Bob Sanders: 97 tackles, 6 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 6 PBU, 2 INT, FR
Troy Polamalu: 63 tackles, 6 TFL, 11 PBU, 7 INT, TD, sack, FR
Antoine Winfield Jr.: 110 tackles, 5 TFL, 12 PBU, 3 INT, 5 sacks, 5 FF, 4 FR
As you can see, all safeties who earned DPOTY had at least seven interceptions, except for Sanders, who had just two in 2007. Yet Winfield’s statistics are much better organized in terms of the number of forced fumbles and fumbles he recovers. With two games remaining, he has more sacks and tackles than any previous safety to earn this honor.
Other major candidates for DPOTY this season include TJ Watt and a pair of other safeties in Baltimore’s Kyle Hamilton and Atlanta’s Jesse Bates III.
Pittsburgh OLB TJ Watt: 58 tackles, 16 TFL, 8 PBU, 4 FF, 3 FR, INT, TD
Baltimore SS Kyle Hamilton: 81 tackles, 10 TFL, 13 PBU, 4 INT, 3 sacks, TD, FF
Atlanta FS Jesse Bates III: 117 tackles, 2 TFL, 11 PBU, 6 INT, 3 FF, TD
Tampa Bay FS Antwon Winfield Jr.: 110 tackles, 5 TFL, 12 PBU, 3 INT, 5 sacks, 5 FF, 4 FR
I may be biased because I cover Winfield every week, but it’s my opinion that he deserves to win this season’s Defensive Player of the Year award because he’s a very consistent playmaker. If he does, he would be the fourth Buccaneer in team history to do so, joining Lee Roy Selmon (1979), Warren Sapp (1999) and Derrick Brooks (2002).
Question: What was the most shocking thing about the Bucs’ comeback from 4-7 to on the verge of a division title?
Bucks RB Rathard White – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: I think the fact that the Bucs’ running game has been so strong over the past five games is pretty shocking. Tampa Bay’s ground game ranked in the bottom three of the league for most of the year, and the team had just two 100-yard rushing games in the first nine games of the season.
But over the past five weeks, the Bucs have had three days with 100 yards rushing, in addition to a 99-yard outing in Green Bay. Tampa Bay is averaging 114 yards per game over the past five weeks, and the team is 4-1. Averaged over the last five games, the Bucks’ ground game would be in the top 13 over that span.
However, due to the many weeks the Bucs struggled to run the ball well early this year, Tampa Bay’s ground game still ranks 30th in the league, averaging 89.3 yards per game through the 2023 season. did. Still, it’s a significant increase from a year ago, when the Bucs averaged a league-worst 75.6 yards per game.
With the improved run game, Tampa Bay’s offense became more balanced and less predictable, resulting in more scoring. He has scored 20 or more points in each of the Bucks’ last five games, averaging 26.8 points per game during that span. That allowed Tampa Bay to average 21.7 points per game over the season, up from 18.2 points per game a year ago.
Question: What are the chances of Baker Mayfield returning to the Bucks if any combination of Todd Bowles/Dave Canales/Mike Evans leaves?
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: That’s a very good question. I don’t know the answer, as multiple variables have been proposed involving head coach Todd Bowles, offensive coordinator Dave Canales, wide receiver Mike Evans, and various combinations of comings and goings for those players. . At the end of the day, I understand that Baker Mayfield wants to be a starting quarterback somewhere, and he wants to be paid the same as a quarterback.
That could certainly happen in Tampa Bay, even if Bowles and Canales are fired after the season and Evans goes elsewhere without being re-signed. Bucs general manager Jason Richt likes Mayfield enough to keep him as Tampa Bay’s quarterback in 2024. But in this scenario I laid out earlier, Bowles’ replacement as Bucs head coach would also have to agree to keep Mayfield. .
If Canales leaves to become a head coach elsewhere this offseason, will Mayfield take over because he fits so well into his plans? That’s an interesting scenario to ponder.
But if Bowles and Evans stay in Tampa Bay, it would certainly help the Bucs’ cause of retaining Mayfield.
It’s an interesting query with only two games left. A lot can happen in the next two weeks, and the consequences could cause ripple effects that affect many people in Red and Pewter. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the 2023 season plays out.
Question: How do you rank the Bucs’ needs at this point? I think they could move down the QB and maybe move up some DB help, along with the O-line and D-line. This is due to injury history.
Bucs WR Mike Evans and QB Baker Mayfield – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: Re-signing Baker Mayfield would fill the biggest need facing the team: who is the starting quarterback. Mayfield has a goal of passing for 4,000 yards this season, completing 64.3 percent of his passes, throwing 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions. He has proven to be a difference maker and has been one of the league’s top passers this season.
By comparison, Tom Brady had more passing yards (4,694) and a higher pass completion percentage (66.8%) last year, but in his final season in Tampa Bay he had 25 touchdowns and nine touchdowns. Recorded an interception. Mayfield has two games left to increase his season TD total, which has already surpassed Brady’s record from a year ago.
The Bucks are certain to bring Antwon Winfield Jr. back next year, either on the franchise tag or on a long-term contract extension. But Tampa Bay needs to find another playmaker and starting strong safety to replace Ryan Neal. It’s a pressing need.
And despite the fact that Carlton Davis III, Jamel Dean, and Zion McCollum are under contract for next year, the Bucks can’t keep any of them healthy, so they end up starting opposite McCollum. There’s a possibility they’ll use another starting-caliber cornerback to replace Davis or Dean.
In addition to finding an upgrade at outside linebacker opposite YaYa Diaby, the Bucs could also use upgrades at left guard and center. Age and injuries have caught up with Shaq Barrett, and Joe Tryon-Soyinka is no longer a consistent pass rusher worthy of starting.
Question: Does Carlton Davis III’s significantly fewer snaps mean Zion McCollum becomes the starter in his place? Before the injury, he was playing well and playing well. It looked like he was making a play. Davis seemed to be playing better than McCollum, at least as a tackler.
Bucks CB Carlton Davis III – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
answer: Carlton Davis III played 10 snaps against Jacksonville before suffering a concussion during a tackle. Zion McCollum replaced him in the lineup, as he has done many times this season. In fact, Davis missed the start in four games due to injury and is out for the remaining three games.
Same goes for Jamel Dean, who missed four games with an injury and was replaced by McCollum in the other two games with an injury. McCollum played in all 15 games this year, starting eight in place of injured Davis or Dean. In fact, McCollum currently has more defensive snaps (697) in 2023 than either Davis (663) or Dean (589).
McCollum has also played better than the Bucs’ injury-prone and expensive cornerbacks. Despite McCollum’s lower Pro Football Focus grade (49.4), he has allowed fewer yards and touchdowns this season than Dean (64.3) and Davis (55.2), and has a lower completion percentage. McCollum also ties Davis with nine pass breakups, tied for second on Tampa Bay.
Zion McCollum: 697 snaps – 54.7% completion rate – 486 yards allowed, 2 TDs, 9 PBUs, 0 INTs allowed
Carlton Davis III: 663 snaps – 68% completion rate – 776 yards allowed, 5 TDs allowed, 9 PBUs, 2 INTs
Jamel Dean: 589 snaps – 68.4% completion rate – 560 yards allowed, 5 TDs allowed, 3 PBUs, 0 INTs
It’s questionable whether the Bucks will decide to move Davis, who turns 27 on Dec. 31 and enters the final year of his contract in 2024. Davis’ cap value next year is $20,517,334, including a base salary of $14 million, according to OverTheCap.com. That’s a lot to pay for a cornerback who misses an average of four starts a year due to injury.
