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Bitcoin 2023 saw a massive rally, with the digital currency gaining about 152% over the year.
And many commentators CNBC spoke to, both inside and outside the crypto industry, expect this rally to continue.
After hitting record highs in 2021, Bitcoin has had a tough year in 2022, with high-profile project collapses, liquidity issues, and bankruptcies.
That same year, FTX, once one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, filed for bankruptcy. Founder Sam Bankman Freed was convicted in 2023. Of all seven criminal charges filed against him by federal prosecutors in the United States
Also in 2023, Binance’s Qiao Changpeng pleaded guilty to criminal charges and resigned as CEO of the company as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with the Department of Justice.
Now that these two high-profile cases have been resolved, many crypto executives see this as an opportunity to move on and draw a line under the wrongdoings of two of the industry’s biggest names.
As excitement returns to the crypto market, industry executives are predicting a new bull market based primarily on two things: a Bitcoin “halving” and the possible approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund in the United States. Calling for a start.
The halving, which occurs every four years, is an event written into Bitcoin’s code. The rewards that so-called miners receive from mining Bitcoin will be cut in half. This puts a cap on the supply of Bitcoin, which remains at his 21 million. In previous price cycles, halvings preceded Bitcoin price increases.
Meanwhile, expectations are rising that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will approve the first-ever Bitcoin ETF after years of opposition. This means that investors can purchase products that track the price of Bitcoin without having to go to an exchange and hold the digital currency directly. The industry hopes this will attract a wider range of investors, especially large institutional investors.
With this excitement comes some pretty bold predictions about Bitcoin’s price. I would like to introduce some excerpts from them.
Mark Mobius: $60,000
In 2022, Mark Moebius correctly predicted that Bitcoin would fall to $20,000 when it was trading above $28,000. He then put his price call at $10,000 and stuck with it through 2023. However, that did not happen as Bitcoin rose.
Mobius told CNBC in 2024 that Bitcoin could reach $60,000 by the end of the year.
Mobius said there is “no basis for that prediction” other than that a Bitcoin ETF is likely and there is “increased interest” in Bitcoin.
Bitmining: $75,000
Youwei Yang, chief economist at crypto mining company Bitmining, believes Bitcoin could reach a high of $75,000 by 2024.
Yang attributes the expected price increase to the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, which increases investment in Bitcoin by institutional investors, and the Bitcoin halving in May 2024, which will reduce Bitcoin supply. I think this is due to the fact that it is done.
“We expect Bitcoin to trade between $25,000 and $75,000 in 2024, and between $45,000 and $130,000 in 2025,” Yang said in an email. mentioned in the memo.
“Higher prices are possible, but market volatility and human tendencies toward fear and greed mean that not all investors will benefit.”
Bitcoin price performance last year.
Yang said that ETF approval will remain the biggest topic for Bitcoin in 2024, but given the scars left by the collapses of major crypto companies such as Luna and FTX, and due to the election this year. 2020, so investors should exercise some caution about timing, he said. Cryptocurrency is likely to become even more of a political issue.
“It’s difficult to time the market, but a step-by-step approach of accumulating in bear markets and profiting in bull markets may be a more effective strategy for those who don’t accumulate early.”
Coin share: $80,000
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, said the digital asset landscape will undergo a “significant change” in 2024 with the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the US.
“This long-awaited development expands the investor base of cryptocurrencies and positions us to integrate cryptocurrencies more closely with traditional financial markets,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
“According to estimates, a 20% increase in investment from current assets under management (approximately USD 3 billion) could increase Bitcoin price to USD 80,000.”
Meanwhile, a scenario in which central banks lower interest rates could also play a “decisive role” in Bitcoin’s rise, Butterfill added.
The market will also be keeping an eye on factors beyond the halving (which he believes are already factored into Bitcoin) that could further impact the digital coin’s price.
“Thus, while the halving is a known event, other factors, particularly the potential for interest rate cuts, are likely to be important in shaping Bitcoin’s price in the future,” Butterfill said.
Nexo: $100,000
Antoni Trenchev, a prominent Bitcoin bull and co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Nexo, believes Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2024.
He called for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 in 2022, but that didn’t happen. Instead, Bitcoin’s price crashed that year. He declined to make further price predictions.
However, in a December memo, Trenchev reinstated the $100,000 requirement in 2024, citing the halving and possible approval of multiple Bitcoin ETFs.
“My prediction for 2024 is that the twin-turbo boost from the Bitcoin halving and spot ETF approval will push Bitcoin to $100,000, with further highs expected in 2025.” he said in a memo. “The path to $100,000 will be filled with unexpected holes, leading to double-digit declines similar to Bitcoin.”
Trenchev added that the biggest gains will come from digital tokens and projects that are “not yet on the radar.”
Standard Chartered: $100,000
In November, Standard Chartered doubled its $100,000 Bitcoin offering in April. The bank said this would be facilitated by the approval of a number of ETFs.
The bank said the halving would also be supportive for Bitcoin.
Carol Alexander: $100,000
In 2022, Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, was quite successful in calling the future price of Bitcoin.
She predicted that Bitcoin would drop to $10,000 in 2022. That year, Bitcoin fell to around $15,480, according to data from CoinDesk. Alexander said that Bitcoin will rise to $50,000 in 2023. Bitcoin reached a year-to-date high of around $44,700 in early December.
Alexander told CNBC that Bitcoin will trade in the $40,000 to $55,000 range in the first quarter of 2024 because “professional traders are creating volatility.” Ta.
The next steps will depend on when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission settles. Alexander said, along with other commentators, that charges against Coinbase and Binance could be required before approval of a Bitcoin ETF. The SEC sued both Coinbase and Binance in 2023.
Alexander said a settlement of these claims is likely in the second or third quarter, after which the ETF will be approved and the price of Bitcoin will rise to an all-time high of $70,000.
Prices then depend on the ability of ETF providers such as BlackRock and Fidelity to “allow market makers to not only create ETFs but also defend against price manipulation” on exchanges that create “excessive volatility.”
“Prices could rise above $100,000 by the end of 2024, but only if BlackRock and Fidelity’s market maker algorithms have the ability to reduce volatility,” Alexander concluded.
Matrix Port: $125,000
Matrixport, which calls itself a crypto financial services company, released a note in November predicting that Bitcoin would reach $63,140 by April 2024 and $125,000 by the end of next year.
“Based on our inflation model, we expect the macro environment to continue to be a strong tailwind for cryptocurrencies, with further declines in inflation expected and the potential for the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates,” Matrixport said in a report. “It’s expensive.”
“This healthy amount of financial support, coupled with geopolitical cross-currents, should propel Bitcoin to new highs in 2024.”
Many commentators believe that easy monetary policy will support Bitcoin, which is considered a risky asset. Others, however, see Bitcoin as a kind of “safe haven” asset for funneling funds in times of geopolitical conflict. Many people disagree with this theory.
Coin Fund: up to $500,000
Venture capital firm CoinFund has one of the highest 2024 Bitcoin price calls.
“Bitcoin has a strong inverse correlation to the dollar and real yields, and both are currently declining,” Coinfund managing partner Seth Gins told CNBC in an email. “We also expect the follow-through inflows following the launch of the BTC Spot ETF and the growing excitement around the likely approval of the ETH Spot ETF in late 2024 to be very meaningful. I am.”
Gins added that he believes the industry is in the process of “regulatory normalization.”
Gins said Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin in “the next cycle,” but a more “reasonable expectation” for 2024 is that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 to $500,000. He said it would be a dollar amount.