President Joe Biden is grappling with an economy where inflation has risen to a 40-year high. But data shows that the Bidennomics he frequently touts may be working in his favor, especially in six states where either Biden or his Republican rival could win in November. ing.
Biden’s presidency has been plagued by high inflation, with some analysts predicting a recession, but the economy has proven resilient. Inflation has slowed. The unemployment rate of 3.7% has fallen to its lowest level in decades, and the economy grew at 2.5% last year.
Regarding the economic situation, the Biden administration says that its policies called Bidennomics are working. And low unemployment, below-average gas prices and continued economic growth in these six battleground states suggest he may be right.
“The U.S. economy grew 3.1% over the past year, adding an additional 2.7 million jobs, and core inflation is on track to reach its pre-pandemic baseline,” Biden said last week, referring to growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. “It has declined towards that point,” he said. Time of the previous year. “Wages, wealth, and employment are higher now than they were before the pandemic. That’s good news for American families and American workers. It’s the third year in a row, as I see it, that the economy is in the middle to lower half of the economy. You’re growing.”
Biden’s reelection efforts are met with skepticism in voter polls, especially regarding the economy.
But the White House said Tuesday that the tide is turning, with consumer confidence in the economy reaching a two-year high.
“Consumer confidence rose to a two-year high in January, marking the third straight month of gains, as the U.S. economy outperformed all expectations,” said National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard. said in a statement. newsweek. “Consumer sentiment is turning a corner, reflecting increased wealth, wages and employment under President Biden’s growth policies compared to pre-pandemic levels, and inflation that has fallen to 2% over the past six months. ”
newsweek Biden’s campaign office was contacted for comment Tuesday afternoon and will be updated if it receives comment.
But what about the economies of battleground states? newsweek It looked at unemployment rates, gas prices, inflation and economic growth in six states where experts say the outcome of the election will be decided.
arizona
Inflation in the Phoenix metropolitan area, which includes the cities of Phoenix, Mesa, and Scottsdale; decreased by almost percent Prices accelerated by 2.7% on an annualized basis in the two months to December 2023. That’s lower than the national level, where inflation stood at 3.4% last month, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Meanwhile, the state’s unemployment rate was 4.3% in December, slightly lower than it was just before the pandemic hit in March 2020. Federal Reserve Economic Data (Fred). The state has been severely affected by the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, with unemployment reaching almost 14 percent in April 2020.
Gasoline prices averaged about $3.17 per gallon as of Jan. 30, slightly higher than the national price of $3.13, according to AAA.
In terms of economic growth, Arizona’s economy accelerated by 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2023, matching national growth over the same period, according to data from the Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll released Wednesday asked registered voters who they would vote for if presidential elections were held on the same day between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. However, in Arizona, 47% said Trump and 44% said Biden.
georgia
Southern states have some of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation. The unemployment rate in December was 3.4%, lower than before the pandemic and below more than 12% in April 2020, according to FRED.
In terms of prices, consumer price index (CPI) inflation in the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell region of the state fell by 0.1 percentage point, to 3.6 percent on an annual basis, slightly higher than the national average, according to BLS data. .
According to the Commerce Department, the economic growth rate for the three months through September was 4.5%, slightly lower than the national growth rate of 4.9%.
Meanwhile, gas prices were about $3 per gallon as of Jan. 30, below the national average, according to AAA.
In Georgia, a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found that 49% of voters said they would choose Trump, while 41% supported Biden.
michigan
According to FRED data, the unemployment rate in Midwest states was 4.3% in December, higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7% in March 2020, but significantly lower than the unemployment rate in April 2020 (22.6%). It was low.
Michigan’s economy grew nearly 3% in the third quarter, slower than the national rate, according to the Commerce Department. Inflation in the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metropolitan area was unchanged in the two months through December, reaching an annualized rate of 4.5%, more than 1 percentage point higher than the national rate, the BLS said.
But gas prices in the region considered the heart of the U.S. auto industry were below $3 a gallon as of Jan. 30.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found 47% of Michigan voters chose Trump and 42% chose Biden.
nevada
The state, which will host the Super Bowl in February, has maintained a fairly stable unemployment rate in the mid-5% range even after the pandemic. The job market in Nevada, a state known for its casinos, has been devastated by the pandemic, with unemployment soaring to more than 30%, according to FRED data. The current number of unemployed people is improving, although not near its pre-pandemic level, which was 4.4% in February 2020.
The state’s economy grew at a solid 6.3% in the third quarter, outpacing the nation’s nearly 5% expansion over the same period, according to the Department of Commerce.
When it comes to gas prices, Nevada’s average price for a gallon was $3.8, higher than the national average, according to AAA data. Inflation in the region fell 0.1% last month to 3.6% for the year, according to the BLS.
In Nevada, 48% of voters in a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll said they would choose Trump, compared to 40% for Biden.
pennsylvania
According to the Department of Commerce, the state’s economic growth rate was strong at 5.6% in the third quarter of 2023.
According to FRED, the unemployment rate in December was 3.5%, well below the 16.2% that rose at the height of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020. It was also lower than 4.9% in March 2020, before the pandemic.
The inflation rate in the Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington region in December was unchanged in the two months to the end of the year and stood at 3.9% on an annual basis, slightly higher than the national figure, according to the BLS.
Meanwhile, gas costs were around $3.35 per gallon, slightly higher than the national average, according to AAA.
In a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll, 48% of Pennsylvania voters said they favored Trump, while 45% said they favored Biden.
wisconsin
While Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was slightly higher than pre-pandemic levels of just under 3%, December’s unemployment rate of 3.3% was significantly lower than during the pandemic; 14%, FRED data shows.
Inflation in the Midwest region, which includes Wisconsin, slowed 0.1 percentage point last month from November to 3.4 percent on an annualized basis.
According to the Department of Commerce, economic growth accelerated at 5%, about the same as the national growth rate. Meanwhile, gas prices in the state are $2.75 per gallon, below the national average, according to AAA data.
In Wisconsin, 49% of voters said they would vote for Trump, while 44% said they would vote for Biden, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll.
U.S. President Joe Biden announced more than $16 billion in new funding for Northeast Corridor rail projects in Bear, Delaware on November 6, 2023. Mr. Biden has maintained that his economic policies are working.
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
Economy vs. Immigration
The economy remains a key issue in the presidential election for voters in North Carolina and six other states, although fewer respondents than in December said it was their top concern, according to Bloomberg. Meanwhile, immigration has emerged as the most important issue for more voters than in previous Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polls, with 61% giving at least some approval to Biden on the increase in migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. I think I have some responsibility.
“As the economy improves and that becomes less important to voters, there will be room for voters to care about other issues,” Morning Consult Vice President Caroline Bye told Bloomberg. “These results make it clear that immigration is an important issue. It’s a key issue in this election. And so far, Republicans have been successful in holding President Biden accountable. ”
Updated on January 31, 2024 at 7:00 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.
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