newYou can now listen to Fox News articles.
Iran launched a drone attack on Sunday when its proxy forces killed three of our soldiers in Jordan and crossed the Rubicon River. The attack marks an apparent escalation in the de facto war that Iran has launched against the United States in response to the October 7 terrorist attack on Israel by Tehran-backed Hamas.
Iran is almost certain to escalate hostilities in the coming days, weeks, and perhaps months. The window of opportunity for President Biden to tame Iran with decisive action is rapidly closing. Here’s why:
First, the Iranian government likely views the Biden administration as extremely risk-averse and unlikely to directly provoke a large-scale kinetic confrontation. Despite a steady escalation in the scope and scale of Iranian-backed attacks on U.S. forces and bases in the Middle East over the past 100 days, the U.S. government’s response has focused on proportionality and escalation control. Rather than establish an escalation advantage by taking the war to Iran, the White House authorized only periodic individual strikes against proxy targets.
It’s time for President Biden to follow “The Zipper” and invoke the Reagan Doctrine against Iran
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei looks on at a group of military cadets during a graduation ceremony in Tehran on October 10. (Office of the Supreme Leader of Iran, via AP)
Between October 17 and January 29, Iranian militias targeted 165 U.S. military personnel and injured 34 Americans, most of them with traumatic brain injuries. It was something. Nevertheless, the key message coming from the administration is that “we are not seeking war with Iran.”
Everyone from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to John Kirby of the National Security Council to the commander in chief himself rushed to Tehran to send a cable saying that the president’s primary objective was not to protect the U.S. military and its troops. The aim is to avoid escalation and expansion of the conflict. End hostilities. Proportionality, a key tenet of the Western concept of war, is culturally alien to Iranians. As a result, they interpret Biden’s cautious response as a sign of weakness and acquiescence to aggression.
Second, Iranian aggression is almost certainly supported by Iran’s growing confidence in the imminent feasibility of a nuclear deterrent. In early January, nuclear expert David Albright, who served as a U.N. weapons inspector in Iraq, released a shocking new report predicting how quickly Iran could build its first nuclear weapon if its leadership gave the order. It was estimated that it would only take one week at the earliest. To do so. Albright said Iran has enough weapons-grade uranium to produce six weapons in a month and 12 weapons in five months.
Therefore, the Iranian regime probably calculates that its new status as a de facto nuclear power will be sufficient deterrence to prevent the US government from launching a large-scale, devastating retaliatory attack against Iran’s homeland. Probably.
Is the Biden administration preparing for the wrong kind of war with Iran?
President Biden speaks at the University of Tampa on February 9, 2023. (Joe Radle/Getty Images)
The Iranian government is likely to be watching the Biden administration’s reluctance to fully support Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. Immediately after Russia attacked Ukraine, President Biden ruled out sending troops to the theater because of the threat (which, in my assessment, is probably real) that President Putin would launch a tactical nuclear attack on the Ukrainian battlefield. . Perhaps the Ayatollahs believe that Biden’s fears of nuclear Armageddon and the strategic partnership between Iran and Russia will further influence the White House’s decision-making calculations about what retaliatory measures to take against Iran. Dew.
Third, Iran likely believes it has enough missile and drone arsenals to continue to endanger U.S. forces in the region. Iran’s target list includes about 2,500 U.S. troops in Iraq, about 900 in Syria, and the embassy in Baghdad.
According to the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) 2019 assessment, “Iran’s Military Power: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Domination,” Iran has the largest and most diverse missile force in the Middle East. Designed to “overwhelm U.S. forces and our partners in the region,” Tehran’s “substantial” arsenal includes close-range, short-range weapons capable of hitting targets throughout the region, up to 2,000 kilometers from the Iranian border. Includes long-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. As far away as Israel and southeastern Europe.
Click here to get the Opinion Newsletter
A missile and Iranian flag are displayed at the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) National Aerospace Park in western Tehran on October 11, 2023. (Morteza Nicobazul/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
Additionally, the Iranian state has prioritized missile modernization, focusing on improving range, accuracy, maneuverability, warhead design, and survivability. The adoption of improved guidance technology and maneuverability has increased the lethality and accuracy of Iran’s missiles, almost certainly prompting the regime to take more provocative actions.
In its latest effort to further build up its ballistic missile force, Iran on January 20 launched a state-of-the-art satellite, named Soraya, into its highest orbit ever. Soraya carried her 110-pound payload and was launched into orbit 460 miles above the Earth’s surface using a three-stage Qaem 100 rocket. The launch was condemned by Britain, France and Germany in a joint statement, but it is possible that it allowed Iran to test the ascent capabilities of its Space Launch Vehicle (SLV) technology needed to place objects into higher orbits in space. Very sensitive. It is essential to the development of indigenous long-range strike capabilities.
Because the SLV uses very similar technology, advances in the space program could shorten Iran’s path to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). If Iran develops a booster capable of intercontinental ballistic missile range, it could reach the U.S. mainland if configured for that purpose, the DIA warned. The fact that Iran is deepening ties with Russia, a world leader in space launches and nuclear know-how, including in the “field of military-technical cooperation,” makes Iran’s progress in developing intercontinental ballistic missiles even more worrying. .
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
The Iranian flag is flown in front of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Austria. (Michael Gruber/Getty Images)
Mr. Austin vowed on Monday that the United States would respond to the deadly Iranian-backed attack “at a time and place of our choosing.” But the president doesn’t have much time to reflect. Iran clearly does not feel threatened by Biden’s “cease and desist” counterstrategy and is poised to climb the escalation ladder.
Once Iran gains the operational capability to launch a nuclear attack on Israel, Europe, and ultimately the U.S. mainland, it will be nearly impossible to re-establish deterrence without accepting the risk of broader war. Dew. The time to act is now.
Click here to read more from Rebecca Koffler
