#8 Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide (6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN)
Today’s pick heads to SEC hoops for another edition of the Iron Bowl. #8 Auburn heads into Alabama looking as good as he has in recent years and hoping to defeat his longtime rival. The Tigers are 16-2 with him and have the best defense in the country. On the other hand, the University of Alabama enters the game with a record of 12 wins and 6 losses, still carrying the scars of several losses earlier in the season (mainly against strong teams). It should be a great game tonight with both teams in action, so let’s get into the picks.
Team preview:
Auburn is the hottest team in basketball, last losing in December 2002. Bruce Pearl has always had a good defensive team, but this one ranks among the top three in the country. And the Tigers’ offense got better as the year went on. There is one thing he should be careful about. Auburn’s defense is good, but underwhelming when it comes to limiting opponents in the second. But they could be better at stopping the three, as that should be where Alabama tries to attack.
Meanwhile, the University of Alabama is finally starting to get better. The Tide had some losses early in the season, but most of those were against teams ranked in the top 25-30 (Purdue, Creighton, Arizona). Bama has won six straight games, but struggled in Saturday’s game against an elite team, the Vols. This is a huge upset opportunity against their biggest rival who has been equally good over the years. At times, the University of Alabama depends on his three players, but if he can find the pace with his hitting, he is as good as any team in the country.
Moving the line:
The line opened Bama as a -1.5 to -2 favorite for most books. Right now it’s -3.5 for almost every book. The Tide has a significant amount of money and tickets, and the lines are moving slowly with it, so the cash and tickets have little value. I’m not making a selection here based on these lines, but there’s a chance this line will continue to push toward the tide before tipoff.
Pick: Alabama -3.5
I’m going to win with Alabama and cover 3.5 here. The Tide will try to keep this Auburn team up and down the court and not stifle their slow-moving half-court offense. Alabama is going to shoot a lot of threes, but those threes will be fewer tonight. They had a poor performance on Saturday so they understand the importance of winning here. It’s a rivalry game, but the home favorite wins by 5 points or less? Sign up – give the tide. This feels like a must-win game for Alabama (or close to it) and a game Auburn doesn’t want to lose. Motivation helps Alabama, and they can do that at home.
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