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In the meantime, take a look at where the smart money is leaning on Saturday’s college football contenders…
12:00 PM ET: Oklahoma vs. Texas (-5.5, 60.5)
This Red River Rivalry matchup will take place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas. Oklahoma State (5-0) is ranked No. 12 and emerges as the home favorite with 20 points after defeating Iowa State 50-20. Similarly, Texas (5-0) is ranked No. 3 and emerges as the home favorite with 16 points after defeating Kansas State 40-14. The line opened with Texas listed as the top neutral favorite at 6.5 points. The masses flocked to all over Texas, with 78% of the bets on points on the Longhorns. But despite this lopsided support, Texas fell from -6.5 to -5.5. Some stores are down to -5. First of all, why would tipsters lower the line to make it easier for the general public to report when they’re already sweating the Longhorns? That’s because Pro Money took points away from Oklahoma and caused a sharp line move in their favor. Oklahoma was one of the top contrarian plays of the day, receiving only 22% of bets in the day’s most heavily wagered game. Oklahoma has value as a conference dog, with a built-in familiarity and rivalry that levels the playing field and helps teams score points. The Sooners are also better offensively, averaging 510 yards per game to Texas’ 478. Sharp relies on dogs who can score and rack up points, thereby maintaining the pace or providing backdoor cover.
3 p.m. ET: UCLA at Washington State (-3.5, 60).
Washington State (4-0), No. 13, defeated Oregon State 38-35 to earn three points at home for a complete victory. Meanwhile, UCLA (3-1) was unranked and couldn’t cover as a 3.5-point road dog in a 14-7 loss to Utah. The line opened with UCLA listed as a three-point home favorite. This opening sentence speaks volumes. Why support UCLA? If Washington State is undefeated and ranked, shouldn’t it be the other way around? People are rushing to the counters to grab the points with Washington State. However, even though 81% of bets had Washington State on board, we saw this line increase further from UCLA -3 to -3.5. This shows a sharp reversal line move for UCLA, with the pros erasing the trending dog and putting points on the home favorite instead. UCLA only received 19% of the bet, making it one of the top contrarian plays of the day. Since 2017, unranked home favorites vs. ranked opponents are 40-31 ATS (56%), including 1-0 ATS this season (Kentucky State lost last week against Florida). (covered this ranking). On the money line, he is 50-22 (69%) in wins and losses against unranked home favorites vs. ranked opponents since 2017. UCLA is -170 on the moneyline. UCLA has a huge advantage defensively, allowing only 263 yards per game compared to 382 for Washington State.
3:30 p.m. ET: Alabama (-2.5, 46) at Texas A&M.
Alabama (4-1) is ranked No. 11 and is the 16.5-point road favorite after defeating Mississippi State, 40-17. Meanwhile, Texas A&M (4-1) is unranked, but is covered as a 6.5-point road favorite after defeating Arkansas 34-22. The line opened with Alabama as a 3-point favorite on the road. The nation can’t believe this line is so short and they’re beating the Crimson Tide minus points. However, despite receiving 86% of the stakes, Alabama fell from -3 to -2.5. This line even dropped close to pick em at times throughout the week. Reading between the lines, it appears all the blame lies with Texas A&M and the points. The Aggies were the top contrarian play of the day, receiving only 14% of the bets in addition to receiving sharp moves in their favor. Texas A&M is worth buying cheap as an unranked home dog against a top-ranked seller. The Aggies also provide value as conference dogs, and the familiarity will lead to tighter games. Texas A&M has better offense (443 yards per game vs. 363) and defense (254 yards per game vs. 298). The Aggies also deserve to play in fewer total games (46) and fewer expected points, making it harder for championship favorites to cover.
