With all eyes on Gaza and Ukraine, analysts fear these conflicts could erupt

As the world’s attention focuses on the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, an unprecedented number of potentially “catastrophic” conflicts are being overlooked, analysts have warned.

Earlier this month, the International Rescue Committee released its 2024 Emergency Watch List documenting the 20 countries most at risk of security deterioration. These countries account for about 10% of the world’s population, but about 70% of displaced persons and about 86% of the world’s humanitarian needs.

In October, the United Nations estimated that more than 114 million people around the world were displaced by war and conflict. Today, that number is likely even higher.

IRC chairman and CEO David Miliband said these were “worst of times” for many of the people the organization serves, with exposure to climate change risks, increasing conflict He said that impunity in the zone, as well as soaring public debt and “dwindling public finances” are colliding. International support. ”

“Today’s headlines are understandably dominated by the Gaza crisis, and for good reason. Gaza is now the most dangerous place in the world for civilians,” Mr Miliband said.

“But the watchlist is an important reminder that fires occur in other parts of the world as well, for structural reasons related to conflict, climate and economics. must be able to handle a crisis.”

International Crisis Group research director Isabel Arradon told CNBC earlier this month that the death toll from global conflicts is at its highest since 2000.

“All the red flags are there, and on top of that, we lack the tools to resolve the conflict. Geopolitical competition is intense and the appetite for resolving these deadly conflicts is diminishing,” she said. added.

sudan

First on the IRC’s watch list is Sudan, where fighting broke out between the country’s two military factions in April 2023 and internationally mediated peace talks in Saudi Arabia have failed to resolve the issue.

The conflict has now escalated into “large-scale urban fighting” and has attracted “minimal” international attention, posing a serious risk of regional spillover, with 25 million people in urgent humanitarian need. The IRC said six million people were evacuated and needed support.

The rapid support force, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedi) and said to be supported by UAE and Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, is carrying out multiple operations from the capital Khartoum, the epicenter of the conflict. The attacks have expanded and left traces. Alleged atrocities in the western region of Darfur.

The RSF has reportedly invaded central Sudan for the first time in recent days, prompting a further mass exodus of people from areas previously occupied by the Sudanese military.

ICG’s Arradon told CNBC there was a risk of continued large-scale atrocities in Darfur, as well as the possibility of “all-out ethnic conflict” drawing in more armed groups from the region. .

“Currently, peace efforts are very limited. Obviously there are many distractions at the global level and therefore the situation in Sudan is such that there is not enough serious effort at a high level towards a ceasefire at the moment. “It seems that there are redundancy negotiations going on, so there needs to be a stronger push,” she said.

Analysts believe the influx of refugees into neighboring countries South Sudan and Ethiopia, ravaged by internal conflict, the effects of climate change and extreme economic hardship, is amplifying the risk of spillovers.

Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda

Last week’s chaotic elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo only marked the beginning of a new electoral cycle that will last until 2024 against a fragile backdrop.

Voting was significantly delayed in some parts of the huge mineral-rich country, which has 44 million registered voters, as some polling stations remained closed throughout the day and voting was extended until Thursday. .

Several opposition candidates have called for the election to be called off, the latest controversy after violence has ravaged the campaign with 18 candidates challenging incumbent President Felix Shisekedi for the leadership. It became.

Partial preliminary results suggest Mr Tshisekedi has a large lead in the vote, but the government said on Tuesday banned protests against the election This was requested by five opposition candidates.

The political turmoil comes amid ongoing armed conflict and widespread poverty in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and comes ahead of further local elections early next year.

Disputes over the results, stemming from long-held doubts among Mr Tshisekedi’s divided opposition about the independence of the electoral commission, could be protracted, sparking further conflict and affecting the wider region. Crisis analysts believe there is a possibility that

“We are very concerned about the risk of a serious crisis. We already saw in 2018 that contested votes were a big problem, and now we have moved past that M23. [rebels]Rwanda is supporting them, fighting is intensifying and they are getting very close to Rwanda. [the city of] Sesame,” Arradon explained.

M23 rebels re-emerged in November 2021 in North Kivu province in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and are accused of: Human rights organizations that have committed multiple clear war crimes The attacks will expand from the second half of 2022.

Neighboring Rwanda sends troops into eastern Congo to provide direct military support to M23, increasing tensions between Kigali and Kinshasa, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres repeatedly expressing concern about the risk of “direct confrontation” It is said that he did.

The combination of a political backdrop rife with rifts and mistrust, ongoing armed insurgency, and extreme socio-economic pressures makes the region fertile ground for conflict in the coming year.

Mr. Arradon described the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and other active and potential conflict areas around the world as “catastrophic.”

“In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, we are talking about six million displaced people. If you look at Myanmar, of course there are huge numbers of displaced Rohingya in Bangladesh and also within Myanmar,” she said. said.

“Never have I seen so many people on the move around the world, primarily due to conflict. It’s not just people who are on the move. In many cases, civilians are joining forces with armed groups. The fact is that they coexist, and that is the case in Myanmar, that is the case.”Similar cases have occurred in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sudan, the west and Darfur. ”

Myanmar

Myanmar’s civil war has been ongoing since a military coup in February 2021, with the subsequent brutal crackdown on anti-coup protests intensifying a long-running insurgency by ethnic armed groups across the country.

Government forces are accused of indiscriminate bombing And both the IRC and IGC fear this tactic could be intensified in 2024, as ethnic armed groups and resistance groups have significantly increased their strength in the north of the country.

The military is currently facing challenges from a coalition of three ethnic armed groups in northern Shan state, one of the country’s largest armed groups in northwestern Zain region, Kayah state, Rakhine state and smaller resistance groups along the Indian border. confronting. West.

“For the first time in decades, militaries will have to fight multiple determined and well-armed adversaries simultaneously in multiple theaters. Brutal efforts to reverse the crisis could be redoubled,” assessed the IGC’s latest CrisisWatch report.

sahel

Countries in the Sahel have experienced a number of military coups over the past few years, in part due to heightened instability as governments struggle to respond to Islamic extremist insurgency across the region. It has become.

The Sahel encompasses the semi-arid region of north-central Africa between the Sahara desert and the savanna region and includes Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Gambia, Guinea, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal.

Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Chad have all endured coups and severe instability in the past three years. The IGC’s Arradon said large quantities of weapons were being used to supply armed groups in countries where large swaths of the population “feel ignored” as security problems worsen in the aftermath of the Libyan civil war in the north. said to be moving south.

“So on top of this overall security environment where the population feels ignored, easy access to weapons is actually increasing the security risks in the Sahel, and these Residents are becoming increasingly dissatisfied,” she added.

…etc

In addition to these, the IGC also considers the potential for armed conflict to break out in Haiti, Guatemala, Ethiopia, and Cameroon, as well as the well-documented risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and its global geopolitical implications. I have concerns.