Who is Russia’s new defense minister and what’s behind Putin’s wartime cabinet reshuffle?

On Sunday, less than a week after taking office for a five-year, six-year term, Russian President Vladimir Putin reshuffled his entire cabinet and announced plans for a major offensive against Ukraine as part of the war, which is now in its third year. It started. this year. The most important change in this rare and unexpected move is that President Putin has appointed a non-military civilian economist to be the next defense minister.

President Putin (whose spokesman Dmitry Peskov declared a few weeks ago that the objectives of Russia’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine have been achieved) has placed about 20% of Ukrainian territory under Russian military control. One might conclude that the decision was made to place the This marks the end of Russia’s attacks on neighboring countries after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Why else would a Russian strongman replace Sergei Shoigu, the Russian defense minister for the past 12 years and a close confidant who has led Russia’s attack on Ukraine from the beginning?

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Here’s who former Deputy Prime Minister and new Defense Minister Andrei Belosov is, his relationship with Putin, and what Putin’s wartime personnel changes tell us about the KGB spymaster’s Ukraine war plans and Russia’s future relationship. I would like to introduce my analysis of what is happening. With the United States.

Belousov is a veteran apparatchik in the Russian bureaucracy. Over the past decade, he has held several prominent positions within the Russian government, ranging from Minister of Economic Development and Presidential Economic Advisor to Acting Prime Minister and First Deputy Prime Minister.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov explained to Russian reporters the rationale behind Putin’s unusual appointment: “Today, the winners on the battlefield are those who are more open to innovation and more open to implementation as quickly as possible.” “At this point, it’s no surprise that the president has decided that the Department of Defense should be headed by a civilian.”

TOP SHOT – A Ukrainian soldier fires with a D-30 howitzer at a Russian military position near Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, March 21, 2023, during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by: Sergey SHESTAK/AFP) (Photo by: SERGEY SHESTAK/AFP, Getty Images) (Photo by SERGEY SHESTAK/AFP via Getty Images)

Moskovsky Komsomolets (Young Moscow Communists), a Russian newspaper aligned with the Russian state, described Belosov as a “smart strategist” and “an experienced and skilled bureaucratic fighter.” He said this means he knows how to move and fight domestic battles. Russian government bureaucracy.

As President Putin embarks on a long-term conflict with the United States that risks all-out war, it is almost certain that he wants someone who can help put Russia on a permanent war footing. The former KGB spymaster has no plans to end the Ukraine conflict. His logic for appointing civilians to lead the military is the exact opposite of Western thinking.

On the contrary, President Putin sees the conflict with the West over control of the post-Soviet space in Eurasia as permanent. In Putin’s view, the outcome is existential for Russia, and therefore a battle it cannot afford to lose. why? That’s because Moscow views Ukraine (and other former Soviet states) as a key element of its strategic buffer zone against NATO, Russia’s version of the Monroe Doctrine.

As someone who grew up in Soviet Russia, please don’t make America a godless country.

MOSCOW, RUSSIA – MAY 13: (Russia Withdrawal) Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belosov lays flowers at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on May 13, 2024 in Moscow, Russia. President Putin appointed Belousov as Minister of Defense on May 12. (Photo credit/Getty Images) (Photo credit/Getty Images)

President Putin and Russia’s defense establishment believe that Russia lost the Cold War to the United States because its economy could not withstand the demands placed on it by the Soviet military, which sought to compete with the American military and defense establishment. thinking. Russians want to avoid repeating that mistake. Moskovsky Komsomolets’ explanation of the Soviet Union’s defeat in the Cold War is as follows. “Those in charge of the economy during the Gorbachev era turned the already ineffective economic model of the Soviet Union into an unviable, even moribund state.”

President Putin has a Ph.D. In addition to being a lawyer, he holds a Ph.D. in economics and aims to defeat the United States in what Russia views as a proxy war for control of Ukraine, bringing additional intellectual firepower to the economic field. It’s almost certainly what you’re looking for. During the first two years of the war, he relied on his own knowledge and the expertise of Elvira Nabiullina, an MIT-trained central banker highly regarded in the West, to manage U.S. and European economic sanctions against Russia. Reduced impact.

In anticipation of sanctions, President Putin began measures to withstand sanctions on the Russian economy some seven years before the invasion of Ukraine. His measures include cutting dollars in the Russian economy in favor of the Chinese yuan, strengthening Russian government funds, and introducing an import substitution program to minimize dependence on Western technology. This is why US and European sanctions have had only a small negative impact on the Russian economy, whose growth has been fueled by the military-industrial complex despite sanctions. Economic sanctions did not change Putin’s decision-making calculus regarding Ukraine, as Russia has always prioritized its security interests above all else, including economic considerations.

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View from the scene of the aftermath of a Russian missile (S-400 according to Ukrainian authorities) explosion in a cottage housing development area in Kharkiv, Ukraine, May 10, 2024. (Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)

But in the Kremlin’s assessment, Putin, who is embarking on a permanent conflict with the West that risks escalating into direct war with the United States, sees a need for the deeper economic expertise possessed by men. There is a high possibility that While the former KGB operative respects Nabiullina, he is keenly aware that Russia’s defense establishment cannot be led by a woman.

The two men have tremendous trust, which is the most valuable asset in Russian politics. Trust in the first person (Pervois Rizzo), the nickname used by the Russian media for Putin was initiated by him himself in his official autobiography “First Person” (Otto Pervogo Rizza). They are on the same page and have exactly the same ideological views, including on Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014 and Ukraine in 2022.

President Putin is acutely aware of the economic situation of his main adversaries, the United States and NATO. He assesses that the multi-trillion dollar US debt and domestic economic difficulties will prevent the US government from funneling military aid to Ukraine indefinitely. He also said that NATO members, most of whom contribute less than 2 percent of their GDP to collective defense, are giving up social safety net benefits to finance the protracted war in Ukraine. I am also acutely aware of the lack of enthusiasm. . Belousov was therefore appointed to find a way to keep Putin’s war machine running for as long as necessary to keep Ukraine out of NATO and within Moscow’s sphere of influence.

Destroyed Russian armored vehicles line the streets of the city of Bucha, western Kiev, March 4, 2022. – On March 4, 2022, the United Nations Human Rights Council voted overwhelmingly to create a top-level inquiry into violations committed after the Russian invasion. of Ukraine. More than 1.2 million people have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries since Russia launched a full-scale invasion on February 24, UN statistics revealed on March 4, 2022. (Photo by ARIS MESSINIS/AFP via Getty Images)

Despite Putin’s intense disdain for American values, it is the capitalist nature of their economy that he secretly admires, and ironically, many Democrats and American youth are trying to turn it into a Soviet-style socialist enterprise. By appointing Belousove, President Putin is trying to beat the United States in its own game of economic efficiency.

“The new Minister of Defense is not going to deal with commercial frugality,” Moskovsky Komsomolets writes. “There is no thoughtless ‘optimization.’… Belosov is an advocate of putting in place effective processes that yield the maximum return on investment.” Indeed, these are capitalist terms. These are words from the collection.

Russian soldiers stand on a moving military vehicle during a rehearsal for the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, Saturday, May 7, 2022. The parade will be held on May 9th in Moscow’s Red Square to celebrate the 77th anniversary of Victory. During World War II. (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlyanichenko) (AP Photo/Alexander Zemlyanichenko)

In a geopolitical sense, this means Russia is preparing for a prolonged and possibly even more serious military conflict. Belousov’s appointment proves the following fact: President Putin is clearly aware of such a possibility and is actively seeking an antidote to it. Belousov’s main task is to replace “looking for” with “found.”

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Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (who remains in his current position) summarized the main points of President Putin’s appointment of Belousov: [the West] But at the back of Putin’s mind is an even bigger problem that could be on his way – all-out war with the US and NATO. So far, the Kremlin has signaled to Moscow that it has no intention of abandoning the fight in Ukraine.

President Putin sees Belousov as a clear path to victory in Ukraine and an antidote that could deter widespread war with the United States and NATO. It remains to be seen whether Putin has found this antidote in Belousov.

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