Some are hot, some are cold. And pay particular attention to employment in oil and gas drilling and mining.
Written by Wolf Richter of Wolf Street.
The December jobs report released on Friday confirmed the expected results from a well-performing economy, with wage growth heating up again in the past few months despite the Fed’s 5.5% policy rate. It turns out that it has a tinge of . However, not all industries are in the same situation. Employment in some industries hit record highs, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In other industries, such as information, employment had been in sharp decline since mid-2022, but has begun to pick up again in recent months. In other industries, employment has also declined over the long term due to structural changes. Next, we’ll take a closer look at federal, state, and local government jobs.
Monthly changes are represented by a 3-month moving average (3MMA), which eliminates the monthly squiggles that are just noise.
Categories are divided by work location.. Surveys will be sent to businesses by address. The main activities at the facility determine the category. Simply put, Amazon fulfillment center employees count as “transportation and warehousing.” Drivers who work outside of Amazon fulfillment centers also count as “transportation and warehousing.” Employees in Amazon’s AWS division offices count as “professional and business services.” Workers at locations that handle the retail side of Amazon’s business are counted as “retail.” Office employees primarily responsible for the software side of Amazon’s e-commerce business could be counted as “information.”
private sector.
construction, for all types of construction, from single-family homes to highways. Employment has hit a record high for two years. The number of job openings in the construction industry is also at an all-time high.
- Total number of employees: 8.06 million people, new record high
- 3MMA growth: +17,000
oil and gas extraction It’s fun. First, a word about the hydraulic fracturing boom that we at Wolf Street have been enthusiastically following since his inception in 2011.
The United States becomes the world’s largest oil and gas producer. Thanks to the hydraulic fracturing boom, initial natural gas production has increased from record highs to all-time highs, making the United States the world’s largest producer of natural gas, exporting large quantities through LNG terminals and pipelines.
Since then, oil production has increased from an all-time high to an all-time high, making the United States the world’s largest oil producer. The United States has become a net exporter of oil and petroleum products.
Continuous technological innovation, driven by the dire economics of hydraulic fracturing in the early days, has greatly improved the productivity and cost efficiency of hydraulic fracturing, including labor costs. So let’s go.
The jobs in oil and gas extraction are the people who actually work in the oil fields, not the engineers, programmers, specialists, lawyers, managers, etc. in offices or other facilities. And despite a historic oil and gas production boom, technological advances have led to fewer jobs in oil fields, and fewer people actually working in oil fields.
- Total employment: 119,000
- 3MMA: +0
Mining excluding oil and gas: There was also innovation and automation. But when natural gas prices collapsed in 2009 due to the hydraulic fracturing boom, coal mining was thrown into disarray.
Regarding coal mining, approximately two-thirds of production occurs in surface mines and one-third in underground mines (EIA data). Total production peaked in 2008. By 2009, the early hydraulic fracturing boom had caused the price of natural gas to collapse, and together with combined cycle natural gas power plants with thermal efficiencies of over 60%, natural gas was much cheaper to generate electricity than coal. . . Power producers pumped more power into their natural gas plants and built combined-cycle natural gas plants while retiring large numbers of older coal-fired plants. In recent years, as the cost of wind power generation and solar power generation has declined, power generation companies have been moving away from coal-based power generation, and the demand for coal for power generation has sharply declined.
From 2008 to 2020, coal production decreased by 54%. However, in 2021 and 2022, coal production increased by 11% due to increased exports from metallurgical coal.
Across the mining sector, which includes all types of mines and quarries, employment has increased sharply from its 2020 low point. But employment is still down 17% since 2008.
- Total employment: 188,000 – highest since end of 2019.
- 3MMA 1,000
medical and social assistance:
- Total number of employees: 21.9 million, new record high
- 3MMA: +74,000
Manufacturing: Employment has plateaued throughout the year, but employment fell during the automobile industry strike in October and has since plateaued.
- Total employment: 13 million people
- 3MMA: -2,000
- 6MMA: +1,000
Wholesale:
- Total number of employees: 6.1 million, new record high
- 3MMA: +6,000
arts, entertainment and recreation Includes sports, performing arts, entertainment, gambling, recreation, museums, historic sites, and more.
- Total number of employees: 2.5 million, new record high
- 3MMA growth: +11,000
financial activities (Finance/insurance + real estate rental/buying/selling/management). Employment peaked in August and September, but has declined only slightly since then.
Jobs in the mortgage lending industry have taken a big hit since 2021, when mortgage rates started rising, refinance volumes, which made up the bulk of the business, collapsed and purchase mortgage volumes fell. ing.
- Total employment: 9.15 million people
- 3-MMA increase: -2,000
Leisure and hospitality – Restaurants, accommodations, resorts, etc.
- Total employment: 16.8 million, almost back to pre-pandemic levels.
- 3MMA Growth: +26,000
“information,” Smaller departments, including the work sites of some technology and social media companies. Work sites for other technology companies are included in the Professional and Business Services (below) or other categories.
Information includes facilities where people are primarily engaged in web search portals, data processing, data transmission, information services, software publishing, film and sound recording, broadcasting, including the Internet, and telecommunications.
- Total number of employees: 3.05 million people
- 3MMA Growth: +6,000
Professional and Business Services. The largest sector in terms of employment. This includes facilities for some technology and social media companies. Others can be found under “Information” (above) or other categories.
This category includes establishments whose employees are primarily engaged in professional, scientific, or technical services. Management of companies and enterprises. Administration and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services.
- Total employment: 22.95 million people
- 3MMA increase rate: -11,000
retail industry This includes employees in retail stores such as shopping malls, car dealerships, grocery stores, gas stations, and other brick-and-mortar stores and markets. This does not include technology-related jobs such as e-commerce operations, drivers, and warehouse workers. A large part of this sector is under significant pressure from e-commerce businesses.
- Total employment: 15.5 million people
- 3MMA Growth: +3,000
Transportation and warehousing: After the big boom in 2021 and 2022, we see a decline.
- Total employment: 6.6 million
- 3MMA increase rate: -19,000
government jobs.
First, we look at total government employment (federal, state, and local) as a percentage of total employment. Things to note:
- The surge in federal employees occurs every 10 years when the census is taken.
- When total employment collapsed in early 2020, government employment did not collapse as much, and the share of government employment in total employment that collapsed briefly spiked.
- Most local government jobs and some state jobs are in education, from kindergarten through state universities, including community colleges and vocational schools.
federal civilian employment: A spike occurs every 10 years when the census is taken.
- Private sector employment: 2.96 million
- 3MMA Growth: +5,000
Federal employment as a percentage of total employment (1.9% in December):
Employment of millions of federal employees:
state government (Including education at state universities, etc.).
- Total employment: 5.3 million people
- 3MMA: +13,000
Local government – Employment depends on education. After school closures, school districts faced massive teacher shortages. Employment has finally returned to pre-pandemic levels.
- Total employment: 14.7 million people
- 3MMA growth: +32,000
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