In our new summer series, we’ll take a look at several topics surrounding the Bucks this coming season and explore them from a unique perspective.
The next topic is what happens if Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield declines in 2024.
Inspired by Marvel’s “What If…?” comics and the Marvel animated series, let’s take a look at some different possible outcomes for an intriguing Tampa Bay storyline that no one could have predicted. To be clear, this is not a topical series that The Pewter Report believes or expects to happen. Tampa Bay fans, use your imagination and prepare for surprises.
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As with my “What if Mike Evans doesn’t get 1,000 yards this season?” feature, not all “what if?” scenarios are necessarily positive in nature. So, as a continuation of the most positive “what if?” to date, What if the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl in 2024? Let’s look at the other side of the coin and consider the possible regression of the Bucs’ quarterback Baker Mayfield For Tampa Bay to win the Super Bowl this season, Mayfield will have to have a significant amount of success on the field as the team’s quarterback.
But first, some necessary background on this topic: Mayfield is entering his seventh season in the NFL and his second as Tampa Bay’s point guard, but he has never really performed well in back-to-back seasons since entering the league as the No. 1 overall pick out of Cleveland in the 2018 NFL Draft.
After going 6-7 with 3,725 yards, 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions as a rookie in Cleveland, Mayfield and the Browns went 6-10 the following season and Mayfield threw for a career-high 21 interceptions, 22 touchdowns and 3,827 yards in 2019. A year later, Mayfield had his best season with Cleveland, throwing for 3,563 yards, 26 touchdowns and just eight interceptions.
Cleveland went 11-5 in 2020 and made the playoffs with a huge upset win over Pittsburgh in the first round of the postseason, resulting in a very satisfying playoff run, while the Browns lost to the Chiefs, who would eventually make it to the Super Bowl, in the divisional round of the playoffs the following week in Kansas City, losing to the Buccaneers, 31-9.
Mayfield missed several starts with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and his production took a step back in 2021. The former Heisman Trophy winner had just 3,010 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. The up-and-down nature of Mayfield’s four years in Cleveland led the team to let him go in 2022, trading for controversial Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was embroiled in a sexual misconduct scandal.
Mayfield was traded to Carolina before 2022 training camp and had a statistically awful year for the woeful Panthers, going 1-5 as a starter and throwing for 1,313 yards with six touchdowns and six interceptions before an ankle injury sidelined him. Carolina decided not to start him again when he was healthy and waived him when he was acquired on waivers by the Los Angeles Rams later in the season.
Mayfield was 1-3 as a starter in four games in place of the injured Matthew Stafford. He had 850 passing yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in five weeks of practice with former Rams offensive assistant and new Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Cohen.
Taking a risky approach to turn his sagging career around, Mayfield signed a cheap one-year deal with Tampa Bay and thrived under head coach Dave Canales last season. Mayfield passed for a career-high 4,044 yards and a career-high 28 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions while leading the Buccaneers to a 9-8 record and a 32-9 home win over the Eagles in the Wild Card final. After making his first Pro Bowl and being named Offensive MVP, Mayfield signed a three-year, $100 million contract extension with Tampa Bay.
In 2024, Mayfield is looking to accomplish something he has yet to do in his NFL career: lead a team to back-to-back seasons of success. With this lucrative contract extension, Mayfield is expected to not only perform well statistically again, but also lead the Buccaneers to their fifth consecutive playoff appearance and improve on last year’s 9-8 record.
What happens if Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield declines in 2024?
But what if that doesn’t happen this year? What if Baker Mayfield regresses statistically? What does his future hold with the Buccaneers after a down year?
With so much that can be derived from just one open-ended topic, there are so many scenarios to consider. What does regression mean when it comes to Mayfield? Throwing 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions, like he did as a rookie, may mean one thing, but throwing 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions, like he did in 2018, could mean something entirely different.
In other words, how bad a year would it take for the Buccaneers’ confidence in Mayfield to waver? And would a significant injury like the one he suffered in 2021 cause Mayfield to underperform in 2024? That would, of course, impact the team’s feelings about Mayfield.
And will Mayfield’s decline in 2024 coincide with the rise of Kyle Trask? In other words, will injuries or lack of performance allow Trask to take Mayfield’s place and lead the Buccaneers to the playoffs in his place? That could be quite a conundrum for the team, given the fact that Trask, a former second-round draft pick, is in the final year of his contract and will become a free agent in 2025.
If Mayfield is out of the lineup and Trask is unable to be effective as a starter, the Buccaneers would likely watch Trask get a starting opportunity and ultimately fail, then release him in 2025. That could mean Tampa Bay could pursue another quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft to compete for Mayfield’s starting spot.
And if the Buccaneers don’t make the playoffs, the team could get a top-12, top-10 or even top-five draft pick, giving Tampa Bay the chance to acquire one of the best quarterbacks around. A regime change could also occur in this scenario.
Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is currently 17-17 and 1-2 in the postseason. If the Buccaneers have a double-digit losing season and the offense doesn’t produce under Cohen’s play calling, general manager Jason Licht could look to fire Bowles and Cohen and assemble a new coaching staff for 2025.
Is this enough of a dive down the rabbit hole for you?
It would take a huge fall for Mayfield to leave the Buccaneers just one year into his new contract, and at this stage of his career and given his success last season, I don’t see either of those scenarios coming. I don’t have a crystal ball, but all signs point to Mayfield having at least a similar season in Cohen’s offense, which he has some familiarity with since he played five weeks with the Rams in 2022.
With his 2023 supporting cast returning, more weapons to throw the pass, and a Buccaneers offensive line that should be even better this year, I think Mayfield is primed to have back-to-back successful seasons for the first time in his career. If he falters in 2024, it will likely be due to injury, not his own incompetence.
Mayfield has plenty of experience growing both as a quarterback and as an individual, both good and bad, and he played a key role in turning around the Buccaneers’ fortunes last season, going from a 4-7 slump to a 5-1 record.
Baker Mayfield is a very tenacious player, and I think he’ll be desperate to thwart any decline eventually.
Other articles in Scott Reynolds’ “What If?” summer series:
What would have happened if Joe Tryon Soyinka had led the Buccaneers in sacks?
What if the Bucks wore orange pants for the Creamsicle game?
What happens if Mike Evans doesn’t get 1,000 yards this season?
What if Bucky Irving was better than Rachard White?
What if the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl in 2024?