Rachaad White is a handy and talented running back who lost the gig that started with the Bucs last year to Bucky Irving’s more talented rookie. Once in the contract year, it’s logical that White is likely to play in 2026 before reevaluating options in free agency in 2026.
But is there another way?
Running back markets are mostly not friendly to non-elite backs. In backups, you rarely find transactions to place in a big payday position.
Conversely, the Bucs Run game was objectively the best last year, with its best condition, objectively, when both him and Irving were on the field together in a 21 HR package. Next to Detroit’s David Montgomery and Jameel Gibbs’ duo of “Sonic and Knuckles,” teams like the Bucs build strong free stability if they don’t have Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry Bell Cow, a way to go to the top-tier backfield.
Bucs RB Rachaad White Photo by: USA Today
White is an effective runner when he is put in a successful position, despite criticism levelling his way of not being a good back. He thrived when the Bucs moved to gap-based offense last year, averaging 4.7 yards per carry from week 8. Plus, White is well known and his skills are considered both a pass catcher and a pass protector. His 1,232 receiving yards are 5th highest One of all running backs since joining the league in 2022 as Tampa Bay’s third round pick for each profile football reference.
Bucs is known for maintaining useful backups for a long time after rookie transactions have expired. The team re-signed Anthony Nelson to him The third contract. And the team is probably trying to expand other members 2022 Draft class this offseason, Includes tight end Cade Otton, right tackle Luke Godeke and cornerback Zyon McCollum.
so what I did it Could the Rachaad White Extension not only moved out of White in 2026 and lifted Sean Tucker to RB2, but it could also make it look like the team wants to keep him?
Rachaad White Statistical Modeling and Search Comp
First, we turn to the statistical model we created to find pure valuations when we try to create contract forecasts. For running backs, we look at a large model that examines 16 different factors, including age, draft round, rush volume, metrics, and receiving values and metrics. Blocking ability is taken into consideration as measured at the focus of professional football.
The model is divided into three-year ranges and platform year ranges and scales for current salary cap landscapes. For the Rachaad White, the two predictions I have are $6.69 million for the three-year model and $5.43 APY million for the platform model. The average of these two is $6.06 million. The rounding of how the NFL sets up a normal contract will be a $6 million APY. On the cap.
The program is also looking to find comparable players who have signed contracts since 2020. Here we have three players who have found models in the most similar productions of three years.
All three players found were companions who signed the third round at about the age of 26. He is second in rushing yards and number one when receiving yards and catches, but is ranked last with a touchdown and an explosive run. Of the three, the Antonio Gibson Comp is very appealing. Because Gibson is known as a receiving back rather than a great runner. He had a three-year deal, totaling $11.25 million, with $5.3 million guaranteed. We inflate that a total of $12.3 million and $5.8 million will be guaranteed to increase this year’s salary cap.
The model also looked for platform year comps and returned these results.
These comps are not overall strong, but they help shape the bottom-level band. Combined with a 3-year comp, it shows that the APY projected from statistical modeling is too high. At this point, I like to look at the average of three methods (statistical modeling, average of three years of comp and average of platforms) and appear where I finally land. This makes me an APY of $4.46 million.
Final projection of the virtual expansion of Rachaad White
A three-year contract based on the above numbers will round to the nearest half a million people, earning a total of $13.5 million. It’s a little north of Antonio Gibson’s contract, even in cap inflation. That makes sense because Rachaad White means you have to give up to not go to a free agency. The deal from the perspective of the teams added in 2025, which is already under contract, averages four years at an average annual average of $4,226,500. From a reporting perspective, it is a white RB20 from an APY perspective.
White already has a $34.06 million deadline for base salary that is not guaranteed. For that to make sense on his part, he will need another $5.6 million for a total of nearly $9 million, in addition to the fully guaranteed plus. This also closely follows the guarantee structure used by BUCS receiver Chris Godwin in each of his last two deals. It will also be given an extra $1.1 million in cash flow this year.
The cap breakdown may look like this:
This will keep the backroom running the Bucs at least in 2026, giving the team the opportunity to save the cap in 2027. Also, the 2025 Cap Relief will help provide teams with a small, but insignificant $1.6 million relief.
Certainly, the probability of this type of expansion is low.
Bucs RB Rachaad White and LG Ben Bredeson – Photo by Cliff Welch/PR
From White’s perspective, it limits almost every advantage he can make this year. But it provides him with some security.
Najee Harris is away from a three-year stretch in Pittsburgh, posting more than 1,000 rushing yards and managing only $5.25 million guarantees for the Chargers in Los Angeles. Would White be happy to make that trade-off?
I don’t know.
Would Bucs be willing to commit another $6 million of extra $6 million for White to secure one extra season from him with minimal choices in 2027 and 2028?
Again, I don’t know. However, I think this transaction represents a solid trade option for both parties.
